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pittmike
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:12 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
Higher min wage has already failed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... b3e47b3d13

That study excluded businesses with more than one location. (Wal Mart, McDonalds)


https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-10/the-overhyped-seattle-minimum-wage-disaster


So far, the evidence is going the other way. Not only is the data not public, so it hasn’t yet been peer reviewed, but what we do know about the study’s methodology has been criticized for its failings. The biggest is that it excludes businesses with more than one location. In other words, no McDonald’s or other fast-food restaurant chains were included. Nor was Wal-Mart, or any of the countless other well-known retail and restaurant chains.

That is quite a significant oversight: Michael Reich of the Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics at the University of California at Berkeley analyzed the impact of the methodology used. He notes that the UofW report excludes “48 percent of Seattle’s low-paid workforce out of their study.”

This is a major flaw.


And here is a guy from MIT saying the opposite.

"This strikes me as a study that is likely to influence people," said David Autor, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who was not involved in the research. He called the work "very credible" and "sufficiently compelling in its design and statistical power that it can change minds."

He can say whatever he wants. They left 48% of the workers out of it including the 2 biggest employers of the workers we are talking about.

That speaks for itself.


Is it possible that considering Walmart and McDonalds in the study would cloud the issue they are trying to study? Walmart and McDonalds as national corporations can more easily absorb and deal with the wage increase. If you are trying to get a real local effect you may not want that input.

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Hank Scorpio
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:13 pm 
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Nas wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Yes, I noted that 2&3 are good for low wage workers. However, where your logic fails on automation is that as you raise the cost of wages, you make investments in productivity technology more cost competitive.

If a company has a low wage worker cost of $20M annually, and you raise that by 50% to $30M annually, you now have a much bigger incentive to spend on expensive equipment to remove cost layers. Even if you have to spend say $50M upfront, your savings on employment costs are recurring each year. Basically, you have lowered the project hurdle rate significantly.
I'll use your numbers, but you have to look at it over a 5 year period. If I can spend $50M to remove $100M over the next 5 years I do it, and if I can spend $50M to remove $150M over the next 5 years I do it. You are doing either one.

I understand that the math changes somewhat but you are overstating it. The goal of virtually all of these places is to become fully automated.


We love scanning and bagging our own groceries now. We are literally doing what 2 people used to get paid for.


You love that? I hate it. As much as the middle class likes to scoff at min wage employees, it takes these morons in the self scan 3x longer to scan 3x less groceries. Give me the real employees any day of the week. :lol:

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rogers park bryan
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:13 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
If you dont want a minimum wage increase or think it wont work, then dont complain about the welfare state or LINK card abuse.


Why can't I complain about both, it isn't binary. RPBrick

The problem is that for a min wage increase to work, it would involve significant government oversight of businesses. I don't think WalMart should make billions and then force their workers to go on welfare to survive. How do you stop that from happening short of boycotting Wal-Mart (good luck)? Do you want the government to step in and tell Wal Mart how much they can and cant make each year?

You can complain about both but it makes no sense.

Talk about your ECON 101 that everyone loves to throw around in this discussion.

If people are paid less...more people will be on welfare.

We are already paying these people. We're splitting the bill with Wal Mart on their employee wages.

The rest of your post Im not sure about. Why would you need any more govt oversight than is currently needed?
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pittmike
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:14 pm 
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Nas wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Yes, I noted that 2&3 are good for low wage workers. However, where your logic fails on automation is that as you raise the cost of wages, you make investments in productivity technology more cost competitive.

If a company has a low wage worker cost of $20M annually, and you raise that by 50% to $30M annually, you now have a much bigger incentive to spend on expensive equipment to remove cost layers. Even if you have to spend say $50M upfront, your savings on employment costs are recurring each year. Basically, you have lowered the project hurdle rate significantly.
I'll use your numbers, but you have to look at it over a 5 year period. If I can spend $50M to remove $100M over the next 5 years I do it, and if I can spend $50M to remove $150M over the next 5 years I do it. You are doing either one.

I understand that the math changes somewhat but you are overstating it. The goal of virtually all of these places is to become fully automated.


We love scanning and bagging our own groceries now. We are literally doing what 2 people used to get paid for.


We go one better and do not even go in the store. We shop online and drive up and they put it in our car. Done. Walmart also generously also saves me money by not letting me impulse buy anything that way either.

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rogers park bryan
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:15 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
Higher min wage has already failed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... b3e47b3d13

That study excluded businesses with more than one location. (Wal Mart, McDonalds)


https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-10/the-overhyped-seattle-minimum-wage-disaster


So far, the evidence is going the other way. Not only is the data not public, so it hasn’t yet been peer reviewed, but what we do know about the study’s methodology has been criticized for its failings. The biggest is that it excludes businesses with more than one location. In other words, no McDonald’s or other fast-food restaurant chains were included. Nor was Wal-Mart, or any of the countless other well-known retail and restaurant chains.

That is quite a significant oversight: Michael Reich of the Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics at the University of California at Berkeley analyzed the impact of the methodology used. He notes that the UofW report excludes “48 percent of Seattle’s low-paid workforce out of their study.”

This is a major flaw.


And here is a guy from MIT saying the opposite.

"This strikes me as a study that is likely to influence people," said David Autor, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who was not involved in the research. He called the work "very credible" and "sufficiently compelling in its design and statistical power that it can change minds."

He can say whatever he wants. They left 48% of the workers out of it including the 2 biggest employers of the workers we are talking about.

That speaks for itself.


Is it possible that considering Walmart and McDonalds in the study would cloud the issue they are trying to study? Walmart and McDonalds as national corporations can more easily absorb and deal with the wage increase. If you are trying to get a real local effect you may not want that input.

That's fine but then people pass it off as all encompassing and cite the study to say "raising the min wage doesnt work"
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pittmike
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:15 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
If you dont want a minimum wage increase or think it wont work, then dont complain about the welfare state or LINK card abuse.


Why can't I complain about both, it isn't binary. RPBrick

The problem is that for a min wage increase to work, it would involve significant government oversight of businesses. I don't think WalMart should make billions and then force their workers to go on welfare to survive. How do you stop that from happening short of boycotting Wal-Mart (good luck)? Do you want the government to step in and tell Wal Mart how much they can and cant make each year?

You can complain about both but it makes no sense.

Talk about your ECON 101 that everyone loves to throw around in this discussion.

If people are paid less...more people will be on welfare.

We are already paying these people. We're splitting the bill with Wal Mart on their employee wages.

The rest of your post Im not sure about. Why would you need any more govt oversight than is currently needed?


Because you are creating a new area of corporate profit control.

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Hatchetman
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:17 pm 
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does raising the gas tax result in more gasoline sold or less?

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Hank Scorpio
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:17 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
If you dont want a minimum wage increase or think it wont work, then dont complain about the welfare state or LINK card abuse.


Why can't I complain about both, it isn't binary. RPBrick

The problem is that for a min wage increase to work, it would involve significant government oversight of businesses. I don't think WalMart should make billions and then force their workers to go on welfare to survive. How do you stop that from happening short of boycotting Wal-Mart (good luck)? Do you want the government to step in and tell Wal Mart how much they can and cant make each year?

You can complain about both but it makes no sense.

Talk about your ECON 101 that everyone loves to throw around in this discussion.

If people are paid less...more people will be on welfare.

We are already paying these people. We're splitting the bill with Wal Mart on their employee wages.

The rest of your post Im not sure about. Why would you need any more govt oversight than is currently needed?


I get it. WalMart is passing along part of their payroll costs on to the taxpayers. If you raise the min wage, you are going to lose jobs and/or cause inflation. The only way it truly helps is if businesses don't cut payroll AND don't pass the higher costs to consumers. You can't force them to do that though, that's what I'm getting at.

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Nas
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:17 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
If you dont want a minimum wage increase or think it wont work, then dont complain about the welfare state or LINK card abuse.


That doesn't work either. MANY Walmart workers are paying them to work. They spend their paychecks on the cheap crap and the spend all of their Link in the stores.

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rogers park bryan
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:18 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
If you dont want a minimum wage increase or think it wont work, then dont complain about the welfare state or LINK card abuse.


You offer such compelling choices.

Well, we could just kill them.


I notice in these discussions many people act as if there are tons of good paying jobs available to anyone willing to work a little or "improve themselves"


Im not sure there are enough jobs anymore in general.

There has to be a place for the high school educated only person or we are screwed.
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rogers park bryan
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:19 pm 
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Nas wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
If you dont want a minimum wage increase or think it wont work, then dont complain about the welfare state or LINK card abuse.


That doesn't work either. MANY Walmart workers are paying them to work. They spend their paychecks on the cheap crap and the spend all of their Link in the stores.

Oh, I'm not advocating for LINK. Im just saying complaining about both makes no sense. (You can always complain about ABUSE of the system, but many people like to bitch about the sheer number of people on welfare)
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Hank Scorpio
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:20 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
denisdman wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
If you dont want a minimum wage increase or think it wont work, then dont complain about the welfare state or LINK card abuse.


You offer such compelling choices.

Well, we could just kill them.


I notice in these discussions many people act as if there are tons of good paying jobs available to anyone willing to work a little or "improve themselves"


Im not sure there are enough jobs anymore in general.

There has to be a place for the high school educated only person or we are screwed.


IMO, the answer is in the skilled trades.

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pittmike
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:21 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
denisdman wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
If you dont want a minimum wage increase or think it wont work, then dont complain about the welfare state or LINK card abuse.


You offer such compelling choices.

Well, we could just kill them.


I notice in these discussions many people act as if there are tons of good paying jobs available to anyone willing to work a little or "improve themselves"


Im not sure there are enough jobs anymore in general.

There has to be a place for the high school educated only person or we are screwed.


Bryan no one said that today and you know you are bringing up past arguments no one here made.

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rogers park bryan
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:23 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
denisdman wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
If you dont want a minimum wage increase or think it wont work, then dont complain about the welfare state or LINK card abuse.


You offer such compelling choices.

Well, we could just kill them.


I notice in these discussions many people act as if there are tons of good paying jobs available to anyone willing to work a little or "improve themselves"


Im not sure there are enough jobs anymore in general.

There has to be a place for the high school educated only person or we are screwed.


Bryan no one said that today and you know you are bringing up past arguments no one here made.

And I presented it as such. That's why I said "in these discussions" instead of quoting someone here.
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Nas
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:24 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
Nas wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Yes, I noted that 2&3 are good for low wage workers. However, where your logic fails on automation is that as you raise the cost of wages, you make investments in productivity technology more cost competitive.

If a company has a low wage worker cost of $20M annually, and you raise that by 50% to $30M annually, you now have a much bigger incentive to spend on expensive equipment to remove cost layers. Even if you have to spend say $50M upfront, your savings on employment costs are recurring each year. Basically, you have lowered the project hurdle rate significantly.
I'll use your numbers, but you have to look at it over a 5 year period. If I can spend $50M to remove $100M over the next 5 years I do it, and if I can spend $50M to remove $150M over the next 5 years I do it. You are doing either one.

I understand that the math changes somewhat but you are overstating it. The goal of virtually all of these places is to become fully automated.


We love scanning and bagging our own groceries now. We are literally doing what 2 people used to get paid for.


You love that? I hate it. As much as the middle class likes to scoff at min wage employees, it takes these morons in the self scan 3x longer to scan 3x less groceries. Give me the real employees any day of the week. :lol:


I don't but MANY stores will have 4+ self checkout lanes open and only 2 human lanes open. This is by design.

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rogers park bryan
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:26 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
denisdman wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
If you dont want a minimum wage increase or think it wont work, then dont complain about the welfare state or LINK card abuse.


You offer such compelling choices.

Well, we could just kill them.


I notice in these discussions many people act as if there are tons of good paying jobs available to anyone willing to work a little or "improve themselves"


Im not sure there are enough jobs anymore in general.

There has to be a place for the high school educated only person or we are screwed.


IMO, the answer is in the skilled trades.

That would be nice, but doesnt really seem to be trending that way. Automation is killing the trades as much as any industry.
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Hank Scorpio
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:26 pm 
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Nas wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
Nas wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Yes, I noted that 2&3 are good for low wage workers. However, where your logic fails on automation is that as you raise the cost of wages, you make investments in productivity technology more cost competitive.

If a company has a low wage worker cost of $20M annually, and you raise that by 50% to $30M annually, you now have a much bigger incentive to spend on expensive equipment to remove cost layers. Even if you have to spend say $50M upfront, your savings on employment costs are recurring each year. Basically, you have lowered the project hurdle rate significantly.
I'll use your numbers, but you have to look at it over a 5 year period. If I can spend $50M to remove $100M over the next 5 years I do it, and if I can spend $50M to remove $150M over the next 5 years I do it. You are doing either one.

I understand that the math changes somewhat but you are overstating it. The goal of virtually all of these places is to become fully automated.


We love scanning and bagging our own groceries now. We are literally doing what 2 people used to get paid for.


You love that? I hate it. As much as the middle class likes to scoff at min wage employees, it takes these morons in the self scan 3x longer to scan 3x less groceries. Give me the real employees any day of the week. :lol:


I don't but MANY stores will have 4+ self checkout lanes open and only 2 human lanes open. This is by design.


I only notice that in WalMart/Meijer/Target type places. My local grocery store actually got rid of their self-check and added 4 new (human) express lanes.

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Hank Scorpio
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:30 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
denisdman wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
If you dont want a minimum wage increase or think it wont work, then dont complain about the welfare state or LINK card abuse.


You offer such compelling choices.

Well, we could just kill them.


I notice in these discussions many people act as if there are tons of good paying jobs available to anyone willing to work a little or "improve themselves"


Im not sure there are enough jobs anymore in general.

There has to be a place for the high school educated only person or we are screwed.


IMO, the answer is in the skilled trades.

That would be nice, but doesnt really seem to be trending that way. Automation is killing the trades as much as any industry.


If you know how to weld, you can go get a job tomorrow. If you have a Class A CDL, you can get a job yesterday.

Automation is an issue for all levels, min wage, blue and white collar.

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Nas
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Hatchetman wrote:
does raising the gas tax result in more gasoline sold or less?

Initially less

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denisdman
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Hank, Jewel did that. I am sure they figured out that they were losing through shrinkage, which outweighed the benefits. I like self checkouts. It brings me back to my cashier days.

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Nas
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:33 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
Nas wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
Nas wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Yes, I noted that 2&3 are good for low wage workers. However, where your logic fails on automation is that as you raise the cost of wages, you make investments in productivity technology more cost competitive.

If a company has a low wage worker cost of $20M annually, and you raise that by 50% to $30M annually, you now have a much bigger incentive to spend on expensive equipment to remove cost layers. Even if you have to spend say $50M upfront, your savings on employment costs are recurring each year. Basically, you have lowered the project hurdle rate significantly.
I'll use your numbers, but you have to look at it over a 5 year period. If I can spend $50M to remove $100M over the next 5 years I do it, and if I can spend $50M to remove $150M over the next 5 years I do it. You are doing either one.

I understand that the math changes somewhat but you are overstating it. The goal of virtually all of these places is to become fully automated.


We love scanning and bagging our own groceries now. We are literally doing what 2 people used to get paid for.


You love that? I hate it. As much as the middle class likes to scoff at min wage employees, it takes these morons in the self scan 3x longer to scan 3x less groceries. Give me the real employees any day of the week. :lol:


I don't but MANY stores will have 4+ self checkout lanes open and only 2 human lanes open. This is by design.


I only notice that in WalMart/Meijer/Target type places. My local grocery store actually got rid of their self-check and added 4 new (human) express lanes.


I generally go to Target (5% off) and Jewel (to see Regular Reader) and both have self checkout.

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Hank Scorpio
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:35 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Hank, Jewel did that. I am sure they figured out that they were losing through shrinkage, which outweighed the benefits. I like self checkouts. It brings me back to my cashier days.


If I had a couple things and there was no line, the self check was perfect. If there was anyone in front of you...pack a lunch as they look up the SKU for bananas. I'd rather wait in line with the person that memorized the code so I can get in and out as soon as possible.


One time I had to enter a couple bags of ice and I entered the code for the small bag instead of the big bag. I caught my error after I paid and looked at the receipt and went to the cust service desk. She laughed and said 'no one has ever came up here for scanning the CHEAPER price.'

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Hank Scorpio
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Meijer is the worst. They have the self checkout with the full belt so you can scan your own full cart of groceries...welcome to the third circle of hell waiting in that line.

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Hatchetman
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:39 pm 
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Nas wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
does raising the gas tax result in more gasoline sold or less?

Initially less


forever less

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leashyourkids
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I'm fine with increasing the minimum wage, but criminally low wages are a symptom of the disease, not the disease itself. We don't have skilled jobs in America for blue collar workers anymore because of globalization. The people who now work at gas stations and fast food restaurants previously would have been able to make a decent living on in the manufacturing industry. Raising the minimum wage would also give those types of industries more incentive to not only automate but to move more jobs overseas.

I don't have a solution, but the problem is larger than just the wage.

America also has advantages to keeping labor here, if all things are equal. We have immense wealth, a sophisticated and relatively consistent legal system with patent laws, and highly educated people (though that system is increasingly becoming lopsided with haves and have nots). I think a market correction in terms of higher education and the value it provides would get to the root problem better than an increased minimum wage. More emphasis on trade schools and marketable skills while still valuing a liberal arts education for some would be great.

I know it sounds "pie in the sky," but until India has a similar minimum wage, I just don't think it has a lot of impact.

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rogers park bryan
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:55 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:

If you know how to weld, you can go get a job tomorrow. If you have a Class A CDL, you can get a job yesterday.

Automation is an issue for all levels, min wage, blue and white collar.

The welding shortage thing is misrepresented. The shortage is in new welders and the main reason they cant keep those jobs filled is the shitty wages for a physically taxing job.

Here's a paper published in MIT 4 days ago on the myth of the skills gap


https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608707/the-myth-of-the-skills-gap/
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FavreFan
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:59 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
Higher min wage has already failed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... b3e47b3d13

That study excluded businesses with more than one location. (Wal Mart, McDonalds)


https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-10/the-overhyped-seattle-minimum-wage-disaster


So far, the evidence is going the other way. Not only is the data not public, so it hasn’t yet been peer reviewed, but what we do know about the study’s methodology has been criticized for its failings. The biggest is that it excludes businesses with more than one location. In other words, no McDonald’s or other fast-food restaurant chains were included. Nor was Wal-Mart, or any of the countless other well-known retail and restaurant chains.

That is quite a significant oversight: Michael Reich of the Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics at the University of California at Berkeley analyzed the impact of the methodology used. He notes that the UofW report excludes “48 percent of Seattle’s low-paid workforce out of their study.”

This is a major flaw.


And here is a guy from MIT saying the opposite.

"This strikes me as a study that is likely to influence people," said David Autor, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who was not involved in the research. He called the work "very credible" and "sufficiently compelling in its design and statistical power that it can change minds."

He can say whatever he wants. They left 48% of the workers out of it including the 2 biggest employers of the workers we are talking about.

That speaks for itself.

So the study shows it would have a very detrimental effect on small businesses with one location, but huge ass corporations like McDonalds and Walmart might not be as effected? And you're applauding this?

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leashyourkids
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:59 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:

If you know how to weld, you can go get a job tomorrow. If you have a Class A CDL, you can get a job yesterday.

Automation is an issue for all levels, min wage, blue and white collar.

The welding shortage thing is misrepresented. The shortage is in new welders and the main reason they cant keep those jobs filled is the shitty wages for a physically taxing job.

Here's a paper published in MIT 4 days ago on the myth of the skills gap


https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608707/the-myth-of-the-skills-gap/


MIT?

Get outta here with that clown college bullshit.

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Hank Scorpio
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 3:00 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:

If you know how to weld, you can go get a job tomorrow. If you have a Class A CDL, you can get a job yesterday.

Automation is an issue for all levels, min wage, blue and white collar.

The welding shortage thing is misrepresented. The shortage is in new welders and the main reason they cant keep those jobs filled is the shitty wages for a physically taxing job.

Here's a paper published in MIT 4 days ago on the myth of the skills gap


https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608707/the-myth-of-the-skills-gap/


Interesting... I need to find a Berkeley guy to counteract this and the circle will be complete for us today. :lol:

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Hatchetman
PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 3:01 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
[
MIT?

Get outta here with that clown college bullshit.


the guy who actually wrote it is from UofI. :lol:

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