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 Post subject: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 6:16 pm 
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Dead at 96. Hosted arguably the best game show of all time.

http://abc7chicago.com/entertainment/mo ... 6/2473286/

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 6:20 pm 
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Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Answer: Yes, you should always switch.

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 7:07 pm 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Answer: Yes, you should always switch.


Read my mind!

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 7:16 pm 
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I never heard of Rice-A-Roni until I watched Let's Make a Deal.

RIP, Monty Hall. Pick Cloud Number 2...

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:03 pm 
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Who the hell's left from the old guard? Trebek & Martindale and Barker is all I can think of offhand.

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:10 pm 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Answer: Yes, you should always switch.


It took me years to wrap my mind around why this was true.

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:48 pm 
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Don Tiny wrote:
Who the hell's left from the old guard? Trebek & Martindale and Barker is all I can think of offhand.


Pat Sajak

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:36 am 
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The reason Pasta and I watched it Carol Merrill

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:28 pm 
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"I ain't Monty Hall, and this ain't Let's Make a Deal!" Where does that come from? I'm thinking Dorothy Tillman via the Steve & Garry opening montage but I'm drawing a blank. Here she is with Bernie Stone of "sangwhich main" fame.

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:48 am 
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Chus wrote:
Don Tiny wrote:
Who the hell's left from the old guard? Trebek & Martindale and Barker is all I can think of offhand.


Pat Sajak

Chuck Woolery (the original WOF host for you youngsters out there) and Bob Eubanks.

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:51 am 
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Also Peter Marshall - long time host of Hollywood Squares and father of former Cub 1st baseman Pete LaCock.

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:54 am 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Jaw Breaker wrote:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Answer: Yes, you should always switch.


It took me years to wrap my mind around why this was true.



What is the answer? That when you originally picked your chances were 1 of 3. If you pick again your chances are 50/50. Something like that? That doesn't make practical sense though. Once the first goat is revealed, your chances are already 50/50.

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 6:59 am 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
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The reason Pasta and I watched it Carol Merrill


"The lovely and gorgeous, Carol Merrill"

She definitely was not gorgeous Walt.

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 7:03 am 
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Seacrest wrote:
She definitely was not gorgeous Walt.


The late 60s/early 70s was a good time for ugly people.

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:37 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Jaw Breaker wrote:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Answer: Yes, you should always switch.


It took me years to wrap my mind around why this was true.



What is the answer? That when you originally picked your chances were 1 of 3. If you pick again your chances are 50/50. Something like that? That doesn't make practical sense though. Once the first goat is revealed, your chances are already 50/50.


The quick answer is that when you make your first pick, your odds of being right are 1/3 (and the odds of you being wrong are 2/3). So if given the choice to switch between a 1/3 chance of being right and a 2/3 chance of being right, you should always go with the 2/3 chance. The fact that the host reveals one of the other doors doesn't change the odds; however, the host will never open a door that has the prize.

Another way to look at it is instead of 3 doors, let's say there are 100. Same deal...you pick one, then the host shows one of the other 99 that does not have the prize. Now he gives you a choice: keep your one pick or switch to ALL the remaining doors (i.e., "the field"). Obviously you would switch in that case. It's the same concept, but when you do it with only three doors, it seems counterintuitive.

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:57 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Jaw Breaker wrote:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Answer: Yes, you should always switch.


It took me years to wrap my mind around why this was true.



What is the answer? That when you originally picked your chances were 1 of 3. If you pick again your chances are 50/50. Something like that? That doesn't make practical sense though. Once the first goat is revealed, your chances are already 50/50.


Jaw Breaker explained it well. And, yes, I thought the exact same thing you said above and couldn't figure out how it wasn't 50/50. At the time the problem came up, there were world class mathematicians who disagreed with the theory, but they were wrong.

What made it click for me was a chart. And it's also extremely important to remember that the host's behavior is key. As Jaw Breaker mentioned, the fact that the host knows where the item is and purposely selects a door that does NOT have the car behind it is the reason.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:59 am 
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opin ... story.html

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 Post subject: Re: Monty Hall
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:24 am 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Jaw Breaker wrote:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Answer: Yes, you should always switch.


It took me years to wrap my mind around why this was true.



What is the answer? That when you originally picked your chances were 1 of 3. If you pick again your chances are 50/50. Something like that? That doesn't make practical sense though. Once the first goat is revealed, your chances are already 50/50.


Jaw Breaker explained it well. And, yes, I thought the exact same thing you said above and couldn't figure out how it wasn't 50/50. At the time the problem came up, there were world class mathematicians who disagreed with the theory, but they were wrong.

What made it click for me was a chart. And it's also extremely important to remember that the host's behavior is key. As Jaw Breaker mentioned, the fact that the host knows where the item is and purposely selects a door that does NOT have the car behind it is the reason.

Image


Jaw Breaker wrote:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/zorn/ct-perspec-zorn-monty-hall-problem-1004-20171003-story.html


Good stuff :salut: :salut:

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