Chicago Fanatics Message Board :: View topic - 5/11

They're in a shitty division. So it might only take 92 to win it. Cubs got that. They'll hit a 17 out of 20 win streak or something like that. Pull away and never look back.

walkrman5 wrote:

I know they are not playing good, but I am by no means in any state on panic.

Serious question. How many games must be played before "not playing good" is not being good?

When only 3 guys of your regular 8 hitters have an OPS+ above 100, and 2 of those are barely above the league average mark....yeah, it's perfectly fine to panic. Especially when "Babe 'effing Ruth" has about the same OPS+ as the guy with the newly rebuilt swing, for whom being 13% below league average is a marked improvement.

This isn't panic at games 1-15, mind you. 20% of the season has already gone by, and they're barely "meh".

walkrman5 wrote:

I know they are not playing good, but I am by no means in any state on panic.

Serious question. How many games must be played before "not playing good" is not being good?

Panic time might just be the realization that much of their young talent isn't on the hall of fame career path many envisioned just a few short months ago.

Zippy-The-Pinhead wrote:

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:

Do you honestly believe they are where they are now because of tough luck losses? If so, yeah, I can see why you don't find reason to panic. But for those that see incredibly poor performances from Baby Ruth and 1/2 of Brizzo, as well as an aging pitching staff faltering start after start, it looks as though every facet of the game is in disarray, and that doesn't bode well.

You and I have different philosophical views about the game, and the conversation you're having right now is one of the issues I have with predictive stats. Most people only like them when they are leading them to their desired conclusion. Cub fans don't want to accept that their are numerous statistical indicators that don't bode well for this team's future, but if the indicators pointed the other way, some of the same guys would be reciting them.

It doesn't sound like you have a problem with predictive stats; it sounds like you have a problem with people who selectively cite them.

Right, but since it's always humans using them it's rare that they're actually used blindly.

I bet a lot of horses and it's taken me a long time not to use numbers to support a conclusion I've already made rather than letting the numbers lead to the conclusion. It's something I always have to guard against.

What is with the St. Louis Cardinals? Year after year I look at them on paper and see a team that should be .500 and every year they wildly overachieve. They are much more annoying than the Yankees with their consistency.

I swear you could throw Cardinal uniforms on nine guys you found on the street and they would be competitive.

Author:	Joe Orr Road Rod [ Thu May 11, 2017 3:49 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: 5/11 - "Stop Saying Panic!"
Beardown wrote: They're in a shitty division. So it might only take 92 to win it. Cubs got that. They'll hit a 17 out of 20 win streak or something like that. Pull away and never look back. I'm gonna go with 87-88 wins. That may be enough.

Author:	pittmike [ Thu May 11, 2017 4:03 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: 5/11 - "Stop Saying Panic!"
What's that about .550 the rest of the way.

Author:	Scooter [ Thu May 11, 2017 9:31 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: 5/11 - "Stop Saying Panic!"
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: walkrman5 wrote: I know they are not playing good, but I am by no means in any state on panic. Serious question. How many games must be played before "not playing good" is not being good? 70

Author:	leashyourkids [ Thu May 11, 2017 9:35 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: 5/11 - "Stop Saying Panic!"
I don't know anyone who is saying the Cubs have played well or that there aren't reasons for concern.

Author:	good dolphin [ Fri May 12, 2017 8:44 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 5/11 - "Stop Saying Panic!"
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote: When only 3 guys of your regular 8 hitters have an OPS+ above 100, and 2 of those are barely above the league average mark....yeah, it's perfectly fine to panic. Especially when "Babe 'effing Ruth" has about the same OPS+ as the guy with the newly rebuilt swing, for whom being 13% below league average is a marked improvement. This isn't panic at games 1-15, mind you. 20% of the season has already gone by, and they're barely "meh". I think far too many people penned in numbers for players who have warranted nothing more than pencil

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Author:	good dolphin [ Fri May 12, 2017 8:45 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 5/11 - "Stop Saying Panic!"
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: walkrman5 wrote: I know they are not playing good, but I am by no means in any state on panic. Serious question. How many games must be played before "not playing good" is not being good? general rule of thumb is 60

Author:	good dolphin [ Fri May 12, 2017 8:47 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 5/11 - "Stop Saying Panic!"
MartyD47 wrote: Panic time might just be the realization that much of their young talent isn't on the hall of fame career path many envisioned just a few short months ago. You mean the great five head "sabermatrician" Len might be wrong when he says that Addison Russell is going to be an MVP...and they keep playing that cut over and over again on Score promos.

Author:	good dolphin [ Fri May 12, 2017 8:52 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 5/11 - "Stop Saying Panic!"
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Zippy-The-Pinhead wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Juice's Lecture Notes wrote: Do you honestly believe they are where they are now because of tough luck losses? If so, yeah, I can see why you don't find reason to panic. But for those that see incredibly poor performances from Baby Ruth and 1/2 of Brizzo, as well as an aging pitching staff faltering start after start, it looks as though every facet of the game is in disarray, and that doesn't bode well. You and I have different philosophical views about the game, and the conversation you're having right now is one of the issues I have with predictive stats. Most people only like them when they are leading them to their desired conclusion. Cub fans don't want to accept that their are numerous statistical indicators that don't bode well for this team's future, but if the indicators pointed the other way, some of the same guys would be reciting them. It doesn't sound like you have a problem with predictive stats; it sounds like you have a problem with people who selectively cite them. Right, but since it's always humans using them it's rare that they're actually used blindly. I bet a lot of horses and it's taken me a long time not to use numbers to support a conclusion I've already made rather than letting the numbers lead to the conclusion. It's something I always have to guard against. I'm waiting for the day Dan Bernstein has Watson on for a "make you a better baseball fan" interview and the computer tells him what a dipshit he is.

Author:	good dolphin [ Fri May 12, 2017 8:56 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 5/11 - "Stop Saying Panic!"
What is with the St. Louis Cardinals? Year after year I look at them on paper and see a team that should be .500 and every year they wildly overachieve. They are much more annoying than the Yankees with their consistency. I swear you could throw Cardinal uniforms on nine guys you found on the street and they would be competitive.

Author:	leashyourkids [ Fri May 12, 2017 8:57 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 5/11 - "Stop Saying Panic!"
good dolphin wrote: What is with the St. Louis Cardinals? Year after year I look at them on paper and see a team that should be .500 and every year they wildly overachieve. They are much more annoying than the Yankees with their consistency. I swear you could throw Cardinal uniforms on nine guys you found on the street and they would be competitive. To me, they're the most impressive organization in sports.

Author:	good dolphin [ Fri May 12, 2017 9:14 am ]
Post subject:	Re: 5/11 - "Stop Saying Panic!"
I think the Cub can sleep their way to 90 wins this year. Then, when you look at the playoffs, their isn't a team in the NL outside of Washington that is intimidating. The AL is another story but that doesn't really matter. In the playoffs you would have Lester, Hendricks and Arrietta. That is not great right now but Hendricks is on the verge of looking like last year's Hendricks and I think they pick up another starter who pushes Arrietta down to the 4th starter. You then have an imposing playoff pitching staff

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