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PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:51 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I was just looking at Saturday's card a little. I think Ingadore has big chance at a big price in the fourth.


I see a lot of value in Race Me Home and Kismet Heel. The M/L gave Race Me Home no respect at 6/1. Numbers say he's as good as 3/2, though I can see how his last performance is off-putting as well as never having run on grass. In the past he's faced a lot tougher competition than what he'll see Saturday like Laoban, Governor Malibu and Destin. Dale Romans is the trainer.

Isn't it harder going the other way, though, from turf to dirt? Look what happened to "King and His Court" at Tampa in the Sam Davis in Feb. Put him back on turf, and he won his last trip out for Casse up at Woodbine in a stakes race.

Last thing, and I'll sign off. I'm rooting for son of Curlin, Society Beau, in the Matt Winn.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:24 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I know nothing about this mumbo jumbo making your own lines and odds :roll:


It's a fairly straight-forward concept. Making your own lines helps you establish a value comparison. You want to buy low and cash-out high. Like with the stock market, the horse racing pool isn't always efficient in pricing. One way to get an edge in beating the betting public (for single horse wagers) and the house (for exotic wagers) is through quantitative analysis, which the M/L makers no doubt use to establish their lines. I avoid saying qualitative analysis, like reading the PPs, because I don't think you can be consistent shooting from the hip over the long haul.

Of course, the goal is to pick the horse that is going to win. But if his price is too short, then you want to find other horses that will beat him. You might take two horses, whose combined probability of winning is higher than the favorite, but you only pay a fraction of the price of the favorite for a larger payout.

So many different angles in horse racing. That's the beauty of it.

Thank God I've never done that...there are way more things to worry about what the fuck Battaglia makes the morning line out...if I think the favorite is to tough to beat why would I look other places to see if he can be beat,,,that's kind of foolish......I'll keep on with what I know ..good luck to the rest of you

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:52 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I know nothing about this mumbo jumbo making your own lines and odds :roll:


It's a fairly straight-forward concept. Making your own lines helps you establish a value comparison. You want to buy low and cash-out high. Like with the stock market, the horse racing pool isn't always efficient in pricing. One way to get an edge in beating the betting public (for single horse wagers) and the house (for exotic wagers) is through quantitative analysis, which the M/L makers no doubt use to establish their lines. I avoid saying qualitative analysis, like reading the PPs, because I don't think you can be consistent shooting from the hip over the long haul.

Of course, the goal is to pick the horse that is going to win. But if his price is too short, then you want to find other horses that will beat him. You might take two horses, whose combined probability of winning is higher than the favorite, but you only pay a fraction of the price of the favorite for a larger payout.

So many different angles in horse racing. That's the beauty of it.

Thank God I've never done that...there are way more things to worry about what the fuck Battaglia makes the morning line out...if I think the favorite is to tough to beat why would I look other places to see if he can be beat,,,that's kind of foolish......I'll keep on with what I know ..good luck to the rest of you


When JORR first mentioned this concept a while back, it took a while to sink in.

If you look at a horse race as a roulette wheel or any other chance game, you want maximize the amount of numbers you have for the least amount. 1/3 of the probability of a horse getting 2/3 odds is the same probability as a horse getting 4/1 odds, but the cost of those odds for the first horse as the favorite might be 3 times as much or even more than those of the odds of the second horse. Over time, this method will beat the "house", as long as you keep betting the numbers that are below fair value versus expectations.

That's why JORR is correct being indifferent to horses. You shouldn't be attached to any horse as a handicapper, because then you are more likely to overpay. It's like in the movie Wall St. when Gordon Gecko tells Bud Fox not to get emotional about stocks, because "It clouds the judgment."


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:54 am 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I know nothing about this mumbo jumbo making your own lines and odds :roll:


It's a fairly straight-forward concept. Making your own lines helps you establish a value comparison. You want to buy low and cash-out high. Like with the stock market, the horse racing pool isn't always efficient in pricing. One way to get an edge in beating the betting public (for single horse wagers) and the house (for exotic wagers) is through quantitative analysis, which the M/L makers no doubt use to establish their lines. I avoid saying qualitative analysis, like reading the PPs, because I don't think you can be consistent shooting from the hip over the long haul.

Of course, the goal is to pick the horse that is going to win. But if his price is too short, then you want to find other horses that will beat him. You might take two horses, whose combined probability of winning is higher than the favorite, but you only pay a fraction of the price of the favorite for a larger payout.

So many different angles in horse racing. That's the beauty of it.

Thank God I've never done that...there are way more things to worry about what the fuck Battaglia makes the morning line out...if I think the favorite is to tough to beat why would I look other places to see if he can be beat,,,that's kind of foolish......I'll keep on with what I know ..good luck to the rest of you


When JORR first mentioned this concept a while back, it took a while to sink in.

If you look at a horse race as a roulette wheel or any other chance game, you want maximize the amount of numbers you have for the least amount. 1/3 of the probability of a horse getting 2/3 odds is the same probability as a horse getting 4/1 odds, but the cost of those odds for the first horse as the favorite might be 3 times as much or even more than those of the odds of the second horse. Over time, this method will beat the "house", as long as you keep betting the numbers that are below fair value versus expectations.

That's why JORR is correct being indifferent to horses. You shouldn't be attached to any horse as a handicapper, because then you are more likely to overpay. It's like in the movie Wall St. when Gordon Gecko tells Bud Fox not to get emotional about stocks, because "It clouds the judgment."

How much have you made using this system?

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:28 pm 
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Society Beau gets the show at 14-1!

I told you he wasn't a bad horse.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:37 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
I know nothing about this mumbo jumbo making your own lines and odds :roll:


It's a fairly straight-forward concept. Making your own lines helps you establish a value comparison. You want to buy low and cash-out high. Like with the stock market, the horse racing pool isn't always efficient in pricing. One way to get an edge in beating the betting public (for single horse wagers) and the house (for exotic wagers) is through quantitative analysis, which the M/L makers no doubt use to establish their lines. I avoid saying qualitative analysis, like reading the PPs, because I don't think you can be consistent shooting from the hip over the long haul.

Of course, the goal is to pick the horse that is going to win. But if his price is too short, then you want to find other horses that will beat him. You might take two horses, whose combined probability of winning is higher than the favorite, but you only pay a fraction of the price of the favorite for a larger payout.

So many different angles in horse racing. That's the beauty of it.

Thank God I've never done that...there are way more things to worry about what the fuck Battaglia makes the morning line out...if I think the favorite is to tough to beat why would I look other places to see if he can be beat,,,that's kind of foolish......I'll keep on with what I know ..good luck to the rest of you


When JORR first mentioned this concept a while back, it took a while to sink in.

If you look at a horse race as a roulette wheel or any other chance game, you want maximize the amount of numbers you have for the least amount. 1/3 of the probability of a horse getting 2/3 odds is the same probability as a horse getting 4/1 odds, but the cost of those odds for the first horse as the favorite might be 3 times as much or even more than those of the odds of the second horse. Over time, this method will beat the "house", as long as you keep betting the numbers that are below fair value versus expectations.

That's why JORR is correct being indifferent to horses. You shouldn't be attached to any horse as a handicapper, because then you are more likely to overpay. It's like in the movie Wall St. when Gordon Gecko tells Bud Fox not to get emotional about stocks, because "It clouds the judgment."

How much have you made using this system?


Haven't used it yet. Still experimental.

But it did have a good result in 9th at San Anita, picking the horse that placed at 10-1, Mopotism.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 8:49 pm 
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With real-money, I hit a $1 tri-fecta and $10 Breaking Lucky for show in Stephen Foster.

Tri-fecta didn't pay too much. I had Gun Runner keyed 1 with 2,4,8.

In the 9th, I took Proctor's Ledge to place and he did (He was my top pick). But I whiffed on the exotics.


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:26 am 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
With real-money, I hit a $1 tri-fecta and $10 Breaking Lucky for show in Stephen Foster.

Tri-fecta didn't pay too much. I had Gun Runner keyed 1 with 2,4,8.

In the 9th, I took Proctor's Ledge to place and he did (He was my top pick). But I whiffed on the exotics.

Morning line picks at CD yesterday 5 out of 11 winners :shock:

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:10 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
With real-money, I hit a $1 tri-fecta and $10 Breaking Lucky for show in Stephen Foster.

Tri-fecta didn't pay too much. I had Gun Runner keyed 1 with 2,4,8.

In the 9th, I took Proctor's Ledge to place and he did (He was my top pick). But I whiffed on the exotics.

Morning line picks at CD yesterday 5 out of 11 winners :shock:



An $11 pick-three. I thought I was watching harness racing from Yonkers. :lol:

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:05 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
With real-money, I hit a $1 tri-fecta and $10 Breaking Lucky for show in Stephen Foster.

Tri-fecta didn't pay too much. I had Gun Runner keyed 1 with 2,4,8.

In the 9th, I took Proctor's Ledge to place and he did (He was my top pick). But I whiffed on the exotics.

Morning line picks at CD yesterday 5 out of 11 winners :shock:



An $11 pick-three. I thought I was watching harness racing from Yonkers. :lol:

:lol:

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