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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2024 8:25 am 
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Russian hackers? Government conspiracy to withhold the truth?

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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2024 8:56 am 
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ShortTimeLurker wrote:
Running the race without wagering 100% the right thing to do



Yeah, but I'm not sure why the multis ending with that race would pay to ALL. The pools exist and are locked in.

They paid the PK3 to ALL. It paid $14.75 for 50 cents. I had a $10 ticket with two horses in the pay leg. I got back $420. I can't figure it out. By my math I'm $170 short. I can't be too upset because I shouldn't have been paid at all. They ran the race and I didn't have the winner. But the whole thing is fucked up. Where did the $170 go?

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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2024 3:35 pm 
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Mystik Dan :wink:


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 16, 2024 7:23 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Mystik Dan :wink:



I'm gonna say this- the next time Liberal Arts meets Mystik Dan, he's gonna kick his teeth down his throat.

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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2024 9:24 am 
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Timberlake has a shot to win the Kentucky Derby.

For today with the Louisiana Derby, I think it's going to one of the late runners like Common Defense, Honor Marie and Real Men Violin. The last races of both Honor Marie and Real Men Violin are tosses. Common Defense had a perfect trip in the Rebel, but won't be so lucky today. I don't see Track Phantom having the late speed to be there at the end at 1 3/16 mi. This makes me think it could be Honor Marie or Real Men Violin, but Common Defense could be in the mix as well.

I'm going to go to the well again with Honor Marie, hoping the horse will be better in the 2nd race off the layoff. The works have been good recently. For long shots, I like Real Men Violin and Tuscan Gold as the Chad Brown horse.

I think the race is pretty wide open. No horse lower than 3-1 on the M/L.


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2024 10:17 am 
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Fairgrounds hosts Louisiana Derby day…weather is good…Keep an eye on the mounts of local jocks Lanerie, Loveberry, Curtis and Hernandez…all will be on well-paying mounts today

Race 12-Louisiana Derby

No one has gone this distance…The 3-Antiquarian and the 12-Track Phantom should establish a lead

Guessing the 12 will get most of the action…the 5-Catching Freedom finished third behind, this horse fits well and should be ITM….the7-Honor Marie is built for this distance, lightly raced and gets Curtis in the irons who has been hot of late (16 5-2-4)…11-Tuscan Gold’s last out at GP was impressive…the 4-Agate Road will take advantage of the long stretch at FG and should be there in the end…the 10-Common Defense got a great ride in the Rebel…jock Hernandez gets the mount again today…

5-7-10-11-4


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2024 10:20 am 
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I think Honor Marie deserves another chance. Should get a decent price on him today.

At Turfway, I think Triple Espresso is VERY interesting.

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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2024 10:58 am 
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Early Pick 5 Fairgrounds

2, 5, 6 / 5, 9 / 3, 4, 5, 6 / 1, 6, 9 / 2, 4, 7


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2024 3:17 pm 
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I was doing bad today (after doing good yesterday) until hitting the exacta with Globes in the 7th at GP.

Nice horse. You can probably get him cheap, JORR. He ran this race, 1m70, in 1:40 flat. Two races ago he ran the mile and sixteenth in 1:41. That's a solid time for a horse running in a $8K claiming race.

Fair Grounds is like a crap shoot. There's a lot of randomness there.


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2024 3:57 pm 
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was going to tell you how I liked the 2 Verstapan in the next at Turfway...10/1 ml...oh well still a good value...boxing him Wolfie and Cellist 2,3,5


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2024 5:28 pm 
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Redboarding, but alive in the late pick 5 at FG...here is my ticket
3, 4, 9, 10, 12 / 1, 7, 9 / 2, 4, 13 / 5 / 5, 7, 10, 11, 12

5 deep in the last leg...based on where I've been recently I'd look elsewhere :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2024 5:58 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Redboarding, but alive in the late pick 5 at FG...here is my ticket
3, 4, 9, 10, 12 / 1, 7, 9 / 2, 4, 13 / 5 / 5, 7, 10, 11, 12

5 deep in the last leg...based on where I've been recently I'd look elsewhere :lol:



Nice.

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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2024 6:38 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Redboarding, but alive in the late pick 5 at FG...here is my ticket
3, 4, 9, 10, 12 / 1, 7, 9 / 2, 4, 13 / 5 / 5, 7, 10, 11, 12

5 deep in the last leg...based on where I've been recently I'd look elsewhere :lol:



Nice.


+1

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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 23, 2024 7:52 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Guessing the 12 will get most of the action…the 5-Catching Freedom finished third behind, this horse fits well and should be ITM….the7-Honor Marie is built for this distance, lightly raced and gets Curtis in the irons who has been hot of late (16 5-2-4)…11-Tuscan Gold’s last out at GP was impressive…the 4-Agate Road will take advantage of the long stretch at FG and should be there in the end…the 10-Common Defense got a great ride in the Rebel…jock Hernandez gets the mount again today…

5-7-10-11-4


:alien:

nice card tomorrow...JORR may have a big one for ya


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sun Mar 24, 2024 7:55 am 
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I'm very concerned about the slow works but I know Tough Little Nut is the best horse in that race. I don't know if he's ready and I suspect Block may be pointing him to a race at Keeneland but the price will be good enough that I have to fire.

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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 11:52 am 
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Arkansas Derby Day

Couple things…Asmussen in Graded Stakes last year 257 Starts, 54 Wins…Brian Hernandez is riding lights out these days and has a mount in almost every race

Race 11-Fantasy for Fillies

Several are coming out of the Honeybee where the 11-Lemon Muffin won, but others had a bad trip, particularly the 8-West Omaha, which is the horse I landed on…the 1-My Mane Squeeze has won 3 straight, but I don’t think can carry the distance…the 2-In Just My Heels will end up ITM at a huge price, as should Asmussen’s 7-Recharge out of Gunrunner, 30/1 ml with strong local jock Torres (2 wins yesterday)...lots to like about the 7
8-7-11-2-12



Race 12 AK Derby…one of the most contentious races on the road this year…thinking 2-Timberlake and 7-Muth will take the lion’s share with the 9-Mystik Dan staying at about 5/2…Muth can’t run in the Deby but it won’t stop him here…and he may be the best of the lot…Timberlake is on his 2nd race off the layoff and will be poised..I like the 9 a lot, and JORR’s suggestion of the 5-Liberal Arts is worth a look at a big price

7-9-4-5-2


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 12:39 pm 
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I love Thorpedo Anna in the Fantasy. I'm against Timberlake and Fierceness. Heavy on Liberal Arts, backed up with Muth. 4 and 7 at Gulfstream.

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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 1:01 pm 
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gonna be here all day...just warning you

race 3 Oaklawn
exacta box 368


By the way, did you know that those of us living in the land of Lincoln cannot wager on Dubai racing

Arkansas is good to go, though


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 1:17 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
gonna be here all day...just warning you

race 3 Oaklawn
exacta box 368


By the way, did you know that those of us living in the land of Lincoln cannot wager on Dubai racing

Arkansas is good to go, though

Hope you had some win money on the 6

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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 1:33 pm 
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nope
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Arkansas Derby Day

Couple things…Brian Hernandez is riding lights out these days and has a mount in almost every race



I did not...should have listened to the wise man above, I clearly am an idiot.


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 2:15 pm 
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Oaklawn Race 5 Exacta Box on two big prices...1 and 7

Meanwhile at Gulfstream. not as interesting card but

Late Pick 5
1, 4, 6, 8 / 1, 4, 6 / 3, 6, 8 / 3, 4, 8 / 2, 9, 10

debating adding the 6-Le Dom Bro in the final leg


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 2:16 pm 
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snuck in a win on Hernandez this time dude is on fire

4 races winners
8/25.20/38.20


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 2:26 pm 
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Just saw it on FanDuel. Good call on this jock.

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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 2:34 pm 
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They're gonna win every fuckin' race until I have my five hundo on Thorpedo Anna.

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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 3:12 pm 
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:lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 3:37 pm 
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jocks win this next race...either 1-Bejarano or 2-Hernandez


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 4:04 pm 
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the 1 got screwed there
oh well


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 5:32 pm 
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was away...small Win Shows on the 2 and 7 here at large prices at Oaklawn

actually alive in the Pick 4 to 7, 8, 12 / 2, 5, 7, 9 / 5, 6, 10


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 7:02 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Arkansas Derby Day
Brian Hernandez is riding lights out these days and has a mount in almost every race

3 wins and counting today

Race 12 AK Derby…one of the most contentious races on the road this year…thinking 2-Timberlake and 7-Muth will take the lion’s share with the 9-Mystik Dan staying at about 5/2…Muth can’t run in the Deby but it won’t stop him here…and he may be the best of the lot…Timberlake is on his 2nd race off the layoff and will be poised..I like the 9 a lot, and JORR’s suggestion of the 5-Liberal Arts is worth a look at a big price
/quote]

7-8-9-2

oh and

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Mystik Dan :wink:



I'm gonna say this- the next time Liberal Arts meets Mystik Dan, he's gonna kick his teeth down his throat.



So, an update... Mystik Dan has all of his teeth, JORR has most of his reputation


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 Post subject: Re: Road to the Derby
PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2024 9:04 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Arkansas Derby Day
Brian Hernandez is riding lights out these days and has a mount in almost every race

3 wins and counting today

Race 12 AK Derby…one of the most contentious races on the road this year…thinking 2-Timberlake and 7-Muth will take the lion’s share with the 9-Mystik Dan staying at about 5/2…Muth can’t run in the Deby but it won’t stop him here…and he may be the best of the lot…Timberlake is on his 2nd race off the layoff and will be poised..I like the 9 a lot, and JORR’s suggestion of the 5-Liberal Arts is worth a look at a big price
/quote]

7-8-9-2

oh and

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Mystik Dan :wink:



I'm gonna say this- the next time Liberal Arts meets Mystik Dan, he's gonna kick his teeth down his throat.



So, an update... Mystik Dan has all of his teeth, JORR has most of his reputation


:lol: I'm not sure what Gaff did there. He tried to go where there was no room to go. Disqualified to eighth. He raced good after the incident but cost himself the Derby.

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