OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Walt! Good to see you and just in time for the Derby
| Chicago Fanatics Message Board http://chicagofanatics.com/ |
|
| The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=127451 |
Page 3 of 4 |
| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sun May 01, 2022 8:25 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
| OscarTangoEcho wrote: Walt! Good to see you and just in time for the Derby
|
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Mon May 02, 2022 8:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
Wow Mo Donegal stuck at the rail...too bad, as I think he'll be sitting on a good race and love his pedigree |
|
| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Mon May 02, 2022 9:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Wow Mo Donegal stuck at the rail...too bad, as I think he'll be sitting on a good race and love his pedigree I'm pretty sure he'll win the Belmont. I don't really think the rail is going to hurt him with his style. He was going to have to pass most of them regardless of what post he drew. |
|
| Author: | W_Z [ Mon May 02, 2022 9:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
supposed to be rain on friday and saturday i think. might be a wet track. i've heard that shapes up well for epicenter and taiba. |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Tue May 03, 2022 11:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
Derby Week…Lots of rain Friday in Louisville for the ladies, but should ok by Sat afternoon, may affect track, we’ll see… Pace is a real question for me...the 4-Summer is Tomorrow and the 8-Charge It along with 17-Classic Causeway will get to the rail and in front and will get the lead…however if the 3-Epicenter decides to run with those three, the pace could get very hot, very early…3 straight wins on the front end in the Derby but that has not been the overall trend…if 3-4 horses are going fast early it won’t be a W-T-W win (although it may be a Hawk WTW) Haven’t figured out my wagering yet but my top five horses in order are Epicenter, Messier, Mo Donegal, Cyberknife, Zandon, and Classic Causeway (ok 6)…absolutely in flux with the track conditions So, I’m just not sold on White A…I get his make-up and has definitely had a great prep season, but all that came at Gulfstream and now he has to take it on the road to Churchill, (where he was a well beaten 3rd last year) and his going to be as mid pack as possible, where all the traffic is…this trip is ridiculous, and everything has to go right... and you can keep both the 12-Taiba and his rider Mike Smith (and the horse he rode into town with)...He's not going to get the run he had in The SA Derby and Messier (who was clearly defeated) has faced more challenges |
|
| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue May 03, 2022 11:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
I'll be pretty surprised if Messier doesn't make the lead. There seems to be enough pace in there to set things up for Zandon and Mo Donegal. I think Mo has his work cut out for him. But I don't believe Zandon is the deep closer he may appear to be at a glance. I suspect he'll be sitting mid-pack in the early stages of the race. I'll be somewhat surprised if the winner doesn't come from this group: Zandon Messier White Abarrio Taiba Mo Donegal Obviously, I am against Epicenter. |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Tue May 03, 2022 1:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Obviously, I am against Epicenter. Well then you probably won't like this article then, but I thought is was a good read from a very good writer https://sports.nbcsports.com/2022/05/02/kentucky-derby-epicenter-ron-winchell-donuts-american-dream/ Every Derby horse has a timeline – the reverse-engineered explanation of how one horse among thousands arrived in this place (the most famous and influential horse race in America) at this time (the first Saturday in May 2022, the tiniest of bull’s-eyes), against reason, common sense and laughably long odds. A story of genius or luck, or both. Epicenter’s is a story of patient endurance across generations. “A 70-year contract,” says Epicenter’s 50-year-old owner, Ron Winchell, in whose hands this enduring family business – Winchell Thoroughbreds – currently rests. It is also, not inconsequentially, the story of 20th century America, of depression families, of westward migration, entrepreneurship and the American Dream as once constructed. And the pursuit of victory in the Kentucky Derby. Also donuts. Definitely donuts. Because without the donuts, there is no dream, no Derby. No Epicenter. There is none of it. In 1930, Vernon Hedges Winchell, then in his early 40s, left his wife and three children at the family’s home in Bloomington, Illinois, and drove west in a Model-T Ford. It was the beginning of the depression, and like millions of Americans, Winchell was in search of opportunity, and a better life. He had been a mail carrier in Bloomington, among other jobs. And he had liked to bet on the horses, especially longshots (hold that thought). He settled in Alhambra, 20 miles east of Los Angeles, in the San Gabriel Valley, and sent for his family – his wife, two sons, and two daughters — who made the trip west by train. His stewardship has been similar to his father’s Denny’s rescue decades earlier: Measured, steady, largely without swag. And prosperous. Their operation includes approximately 54 horses in training, and also 30 mares, 20 yearlings, and 19 foals; they produce and buy at least a dozen top-level yearlings every year. Winchell’s Gun Runner was the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and voted Horse of the Year. And in the present, not only is Epicenter a Derby threat, three-year-old filly Echo Zulu will be among the favorites in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. But the Kentucky Derby remains a blank line in the Winchell books. There have been seven entries since Tapit, and the best finish was Gun Runner’s third in 2016. It is not a race that rewards repeated efforts. |
|
| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue May 03, 2022 2:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
 I'm against Echo Zulu too.What do you think of the Japanese horse? I think I have to use him in horizontals. |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Tue May 03, 2022 2:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
He'd wreck any ticket I'd have |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Tue May 03, 2022 2:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
Based on the Dam side distance shouldn't be a problem...but 4th Jockey in 5 races (who I' m guessing doesn't know CD or the Derby) seems a bit of a reach..the perfect horse to fuck my superfecta
|
|
| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue May 03, 2022 2:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
That Japanese outfit has been really strong in the big international races. |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Tue May 03, 2022 2:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
And he's purely bred over there, right? Like no American pedigree |
|
| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue May 03, 2022 2:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: And he's purely bred over there, right? Like no American pedigree Yeah, all Japan through his first two generations. |
|
| Author: | W_Z [ Tue May 03, 2022 3:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: That Japanese outfit has been really strong in the big international races. Is it the same one that owned the late BC races last year? |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Tue May 03, 2022 3:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
I'd take Mo in the 1 hole over the Japanese horse in the battle of never won's |
|
| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue May 03, 2022 3:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
W_Z wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: That Japanese outfit has been really strong in the big international races. Is it the same one that owned the late BC races last year? I don't know if one of the Japanese BC winners was theirs, but they won a couple on Saudi Cup Day and maybe a couple at Dubai. |
|
| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Wed May 04, 2022 5:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
Based on the numbers it looks to me like the Kentucky Derby winner is coming out of Santa Anita with Taiba and Messier or the Wood with Mo Donegal. Mo Donegal is in post one, but he projects dominantly in LP. None of the horses should be lower than 4-1 or 5-1. Epicenter and Zandon's M/L prices are too low and not justified. Battaglia is off his rocker. |
|
| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Wed May 04, 2022 1:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Wow Mo Donegal stuck at the rail...too bad, as I think he'll be sitting on a good race and love his pedigree of Mo D 5 starts 3 have been from the 1 hole and one from the 2...I think it won't be that big of an issue |
|
| Author: | W_Z [ Wed May 04, 2022 1:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
Feels like maybe like 2017 with Lookin at Lee. |
|
| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Wed May 04, 2022 2:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: OscarTangoEcho wrote: Wow Mo Donegal stuck at the rail...too bad, as I think he'll be sitting on a good race and love his pedigree of Mo D 5 starts 3 have been from the 1 hole and one from the 2...I think it won't be that big of an issue Yeah, also with the new gate I don't believe the one hole is the death sentence it was previously. |
|
| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Wed May 04, 2022 2:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
I know he has only raced 3 times but I still go back to the Florida Derby and Charge It. Hopefully that horse has matured and will settle in on the track better, he has the speed I believe. |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Wed May 04, 2022 3:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
What's your over/under at the 1/2 mile? I'll set it at :48 even Thoughts?.. Who will get there and how many |
|
| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Wed May 04, 2022 3:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
Hawg Ass wrote: I know he has only raced 3 times but I still go back to the Florida Derby and Charge It. Hopefully that horse has matured and will settle in on the track better, he has the speed I believe. You'll get paid if he hits...question his pedigree for the distance, but who knows, right? |
|
| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Wed May 04, 2022 4:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: What's your over/under at the 1/2 mile? I'll set it at :48 even Thoughts?.. Who will get there and how many I'm gonna say faster than 48 depending on what shape the track is in. I expect Messier to be cutting it out with Classic Causeway trying to rate. As far as Charge It is concerned, I also have concerns about the distance. I didn't like the way he was getting out at the end in Florida. I give him credit though, he kept trying. He's certainly a fast horse. |
|
| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Wed May 04, 2022 4:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: OscarTangoEcho wrote: What's your over/under at the 1/2 mile? I'll set it at :48 even Thoughts?.. Who will get there and how many I'm gonna say faster than 48 depending on what shape the track is in. I expect Messier to be cutting it out with Classic Causeway trying to rate. As far as Charge It is concerned, I also have concerns about the distance. I didn't like the way he was getting out at the end in Florida. I give him credit though, he kept trying. He's certainly a fast horse. Hopefully he figures out it is easier to run in straighter lines than all over the track.
|
|
| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Wed May 04, 2022 5:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
Hawg Ass wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: OscarTangoEcho wrote: What's your over/under at the 1/2 mile? I'll set it at :48 even Thoughts?.. Who will get there and how many I'm gonna say faster than 48 depending on what shape the track is in. I expect Messier to be cutting it out with Classic Causeway trying to rate. As far as Charge It is concerned, I also have concerns about the distance. I didn't like the way he was getting out at the end in Florida. I give him credit though, he kept trying. He's certainly a fast horse. Hopefully he figures out it is easier to run in straighter lines than all over the track. Yeah, maybe he was just green rather than being tired. |
|
| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Wed May 04, 2022 8:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Hawg Ass wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: OscarTangoEcho wrote: What's your over/under at the 1/2 mile? I'll set it at :48 even Thoughts?.. Who will get there and how many I'm gonna say faster than 48 depending on what shape the track is in. I expect Messier to be cutting it out with Classic Causeway trying to rate. As far as Charge It is concerned, I also have concerns about the distance. I didn't like the way he was getting out at the end in Florida. I give him credit though, he kept trying. He's certainly a fast horse. Hopefully he figures out it is easier to run in straighter lines than all over the track. Yeah, maybe he was just green rather than being tired. You bet your ass that is what I am betting on him, $100. Across the board just need to know how to bet it otherwise, |
|
| Author: | W_Z [ Wed May 04, 2022 9:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
Good luck, Hawg. I plan on using that horse in some kind of trifecta or something. I almost put a futures bet on him too. |
|
| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Wed May 04, 2022 9:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
W_Z wrote: Good luck, Hawg. I plan on using that horse in some kind of trifecta or something. I almost put a futures bet on him too.  He was fun to watch in the Florida Derby and he had no fucking clue what he was doing. I am guessing he has gotten much smarter. |
|
| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri May 06, 2022 8:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby |
I wouldn't dismiss Crown Pride. His time in the UAE Derby was pretty good and he's had the best work at Churchill of all the horses, turning in a half mile in 0:46. The other long shots I would consider are Zosos, Tiz the Bomb and Barber Rd. I already have wagers on White Abbario and Barber Rd in the futures. Mostly, I'm going to be betting the California horses in Messier and Taiba. Why screw around when they're the best in the field? Baffert is going to get the last laugh. |
|
| Page 3 of 4 | All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ] |
| Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group https://www.phpbb.com/ |
|