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The Rebel Stakes
http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=105528		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Wed Mar 15, 2017 7:32 pm ]
Post subject:  The Rebel Stakes
Couldn't ask for a better field for this race.

I know JORR is going to pick American Anthem, being a Baffert horse and with Mike Smith set to ride. I do like the Pedigree, but not sure how well this horse is going to do as a West Coast shipper against the best Southeast talent. That 5-2 M/L seems a little too rich for a horse that has placed only second and third in two races.

There'a a couple other horses that probably are as good as American Anthem like Untrapped, Petrov and Royal Mo. Malagacy could be another Mastery, depending on whether he can go the 1 1/16 mi. distance.

Then there's Uncontested looking to get back on track. Looking at Lee has hardly done anything wrong, but might be overlooked in this strong field.

This one is up for grabs, but I kind of like Petrov. He seems to get better each race.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
Untrapped enough speed for a horse just off the pace at a nice price
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
The pace of this race is going to be super fast with the likes of Uncontested and Malagacy, which should set up the closers nicely, I should think.

It looks like Malagacy is the "real deal Holyfield" and could be another Arrogate. I don't think the distance will be problematic for him. He's the son of "Shackleford", who won the Preakness at close to this distance.

I think American Anthem will be right there, stalking the leaders, along with Petrov. Uncontested is intriguing, because they are using a tongue restraint this time to help him breathe. He has responded well in his workouts.

My dark horse pick is "Looking at Lee". Yes, he finished 3rd in the Southwest, behind Petrov and One Liner, but that result doesn't tell the true story. He got bumped out of the gate and was well behind the rest of the pack going into the first turn. Down the stretch, he made up huge ground to get within 3-4 lengths from eight or nine back. I'm hoping he doesn't get caught up in traffic early on and can stay close to the pace to run by them all down the long stretch at Oaklawn. 8-1 or better, I figure, would be good value for this horse.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Untrapped enough speed for a horse just off the pace at a nice price


Just looking at the PPs this evening, you might be right about Untrapped, Walt. That was a monster LP speed figure he put up in the Risen Star. He was chasing and gaining on Girvin at the end, who, now after Irish War Cry's implosion, is my Derby favorite.

I bet Untrapped to show in that race.
Author:  leashyourkids [ Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
Fuck yeah... I have some time to myself tomorrow... Maybe hit up the OTB. You guys have any sleepers in the smaller races?

Walt?
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
leashyourkids wrote:
Fuck yeah... I have some time to myself tomorrow... Maybe hit up the OTB. You guys have any sleepers in the smaller races?

Walt?

Tampa Bay race 8 #9 Kit Check trainer Chris Block has them ready
Oak Lawn race 7 this race you can have fun with Terra Promessa is the favorite at 3-5 you need Trump money to bet that....an "acquaintance" fly out to ride Power of Snunner but Ol Walt is going with Miss Mo Kelly :!: 2nd race back beat the 3-5 favorite and will be huge odds ...have fun
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Mar 18, 2017 10:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
Terra Promessa is going to be tough to beat but I'm going to take a shot with Tiger Moth.

In the Santa Margarita (9th at Santa Anita) I think Vale Dori is vulnerable. I may try to beat her with Wild At Heart.

In the Essex at Oaklawn, this should be a good spot for Dazzling Gem. I think he's been pointed to this race.

Malagacy makes the Rebel an interesting race. He could simply be a monster. First time around two turns but the horse is training like a machine and he absolutely crushed his first two races at Gulfstream. Untrapped does figure to get a good set up in here. I'm less than impressed by this year's California crop. I'm going with Malagacy in here.
Author:  leashyourkids [ Sat Mar 18, 2017 10:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Fuck yeah... I have some time to myself tomorrow... Maybe hit up the OTB. You guys have any sleepers in the smaller races?

Walt?

Tampa Bay race 8 #9 Kit Check trainer Chris Block has them ready
Oak Lawn race 7 this race you can have fun with Terra Promessa is the favorite at 3-5 you need Trump money to bet that....an "acquaintance" fly out to ride Power of Snunner but Ol Walt is going with Miss Mo Kelly :!: 2nd race back beat the 3-5 favorite and will be huge odds ...have fun


Thank you sir. I'll let you know how I do.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
Had a show bet on #3 Sonneteer, I kid you not, as well as on Untrapped.

But did not figure Sonneteer into my tri-fecta bets.

Thought Malagacy was the real deal, but he was too rich to bet to win against this field unproven.

Feel so stupid, though. All you had to do was box bet the top four in Late Pace, Last Race, and you won. The $2 exacta paid $570. Crazy!!
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
Motherfucker! That 120-1 shot nosed me out of a nice exacta.

Image

At least I had Malagacy for $200.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
leashyourkids wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Fuck yeah... I have some time to myself tomorrow... Maybe hit up the OTB. You guys have any sleepers in the smaller races?

Walt?

Tampa Bay race 8 #9 Kit Check trainer Chris Block has them ready
Oak Lawn race 7 this race you can have fun with Terra Promessa is the favorite at 3-5 you need Trump money to bet that....an "acquaintance" fly out to ride Power of Snunner but Ol Walt is going with Miss Mo Kelly :!: 2nd race back beat the 3-5 favorite and will be huge odds ...have fun


Thank you sir. I'll let you know how I do.

sorry thoughts were right
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Motherfucker! That 120-1 shot nosed me out of a nice exacta.

Image

At least I had Malagacy for $200.


You're not the only one. I had a tri-fecta box with Malagacy, A.A., Untrapped and Petrov.

We literally lost by less than a head.

It's always a horse like Sonneteer that busts your tri-fecta. That's why I had a hunch he would be there, along with having a good LP speed figure.

I was very close to putting Sonneteer in a tri-fecta, but it didn't seem like it was worth it for $12 for a four horse box.

Then I go on tilt in the 11th race and throw away $15. Never again!
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
More bad news for Baffert today.

I thought it was strange that he skipped this race, opting to go to Dubai a week ahead for Arrogate. It was as if he knew it wasn't going to work out for him with American Anthem, even with Mike Smith in the saddle.

So Mastery is out for good with the leg injury and now the clunker with A.A. No one left in the Baffert stable to compete in the Derby.

Sad :( .
Author:  leashyourkids [ Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Fuck yeah... I have some time to myself tomorrow... Maybe hit up the OTB. You guys have any sleepers in the smaller races?

Walt?

Tampa Bay race 8 #9 Kit Check trainer Chris Block has them ready
Oak Lawn race 7 this race you can have fun with Terra Promessa is the favorite at 3-5 you need Trump money to bet that....an "acquaintance" fly out to ride Power of Snunner but Ol Walt is going with Miss Mo Kelly :!: 2nd race back beat the 3-5 favorite and will be huge odds ...have fun


Thank you sir. I'll let you know how I do.

sorry thoughts were right


No worries, Walt. I ended up stopping by for just an hour or so early in the afternoon so I just bet a couple earlier races and not the ones you listed here. I have no idea what I'm doing. I read the analyses and all that, but it seems like every horse I bet dies on the track... even when I bet the favorites. I'm pretty sure one of the horses I bet to show ran onto the infield and started eating grass right after the first turn.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sun Mar 19, 2017 7:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Rebel Stakes
One more thing on this race, the starter royally screwed "Looking at Lee."

He was barely in the gate as the last one to go in, when the doors were opened. Not being set, he just staggered out of the gate and never recovered.

Though I didn't bet him, not liking his far outside post, I imagine his trainer and owner were pretty pissed after the race. You have to let the horse at least get set for a couple of seconds.
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