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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 11:17 am 
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Thundersnow will be in the top 3.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 12:04 pm 
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His UAE race he looks green. It was a decent enough pace that he should have run away from the winner but took a last gap to get there.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 12:26 pm 
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Hawkeye Vince wrote:
His UAE race he looks green. It was a decent enough pace that he should have run away from the winner but took a last gap to get there.


Yeah, he was pretty green, but the Japanese horse he beat is a nice horse. It's hard to bet a Dubai horse on top until one shows it can be done, but I think Thunder Snow is a contender.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 2:36 pm 
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That may be as good a thoroughbred card as I've seen outside of the Breeder's Cup.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 3:04 pm 
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thunder snow is using the same jockey from dubai, if i remember reading.

i was interested in gormley until the posts came out. he's got a tough draw--i think he'd do better more inside.

it's a wide open field, and if you make the right decision, it's going to pay out nicely.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 4:53 pm 
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spmack wrote:
I'll post Brisnet PPs later this eve unless someone else wants to do it.


PPs: http://www.filedropper.com/cdx0506y

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 6:58 am 
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better handicap for mudders

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 7:41 am 
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http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=CD&country=USA&raceDate=20170506&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=12#past-performance-race/12

No download entering bullshit

http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=CD&country=USA&raceDate=20170505&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=11#past-performance-race/11

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 8:39 am 
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So what should somebody who only bets on pretty much one horserace a year bet for this thing?

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 9:06 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
So what should somebody who only bets on pretty much one horserace a year bet for this thing?


Bet a name, #, jockey whatever you like

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 9:25 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
So what should somebody who only bets on pretty much one horserace a year bet for this thing?

Just put down a straight bet to win on either Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, or McCraken. Don't read into anything else because it may be too overwhelming.

Whatever you can afford, even if it's just a few bucks. If you choose one of those 3 to win and they do, you're looking at least 4-1 odds. So a $20 bet would get you back $100.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 9:44 am 
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Quote:
What’s in a name?

For the 20 horses entered in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, there’s a story – or at least an explanation – behind each of their names.

For the record, all names must be approved by the Jockey Club, and there are several rules. A few of them:

* Names can be up to 18 characters, including spaces and punctuation.

* No names of actual persons unless written permission to use their name is on file with the Jockey Club.

* No names that are suggestive or have a vulgar or obscene meaning; names considered in poor taste; or names that may be offensive to religious, political or ethnic groups.

Here’s a look at the names in this year’s field:

* Lookin At Lee – Sire is Lookin At Lucky. The “Lee” comes from Lee Levinson, who is part of the L and N Racing ownership group.

* Thunder Snow – “No story,” trainer Saeed bin Suroor said. “I liked the name. I name all of the 3-year-olds and all of the yearlings in my stable.”

* Fast and Accurate – Named for the medical skills of Dr. Kendall Hansen, who is the horse’s owner and specializes in pain management.

* Untrapped – It’s a play on the names of his parents – Trappe Shot and Exit Three. If you “exit” from a “trap,” you’re Untrapped.

* Always Dreaming – Co-owner Anthony Bonomo said his wife, Mary Ellen, names most of the horses for Brooklyn Boyz Stables. “We started by naming them after all the streets we grew up on,” Bonomo said. “Then we ran out.”

* State of Honor – A combination of his parents – To Honor and Serve and State Cup.

* Girvin – Named for the small town in Texas where owner Brad Grady was born and raised.

* Hence – Calumet Farm manager Eddie Kane said the horse was a handsome baby. “Hence was always a good-looking horse – ‘hence’ he should be fast,” Kane said.

* Irap – According to bloodhorse.com, one of owner Paul Reddam’s unnamed babies had just undergone Interluekin-1 Receptor Antagonist Protein therapy, more commonly known as IRAP, used to treat the effects of joint disease in horses. “When he arrived at the farm, the van driver saw the word IRAP on the horse’s papers and assumed that was his name, so he identified the young horse as Irap,” bloodhorse.com reported. “When Paul Reddam was told about the van driver’s mix-up the next day, he got a kick out of it and said, ‘Why don’t we just name him Irap?’”

* Gunnevera – This one seems to be a mystery among the horse’s connections. Some said it’s named for a small town in Spain. Others said it’s named for a lake in Venezuela. Another said part of the name comes from a horse farm. It’s anyone’s guess.

* Battle of Midway – Former owner Rick Porter likes to use patriotic themes for his horses’ names. The Battle of Midway was a decisive naval battle in the Pacific Theater of World War II.

* Sonneteer – A sonneteer is a writer of sonnets, and assistant trainer Julie Clark said the name was inspired by the horse’s sire Midnight Lute. “We’re hoping he’ll write a new song in the Derby,” Clark said.

* J Boys Echo – The “J Boy” comes from Jason Loutsch, the son-in-law of horse owner Dennis Albaugh. The “echo” comes from dam Letgomyecho.

* Classic Empire – A combination of grandsire Empire Maker and dam Sambuca Classica.

* McCraken – Named for the small Kansas town “McCracken” but lost the last “c” in the process of registering his name.

* Tapwrit – A play on the name of his sire Tapit.

* Irish War Cry – A play on the name of his dam Irish Sovereign.

* Gormley – Named after British sculptor Antony Gormley.

* Practical Joke – It’s more fun in the family as his sire is Into Mischief and his dam is Halo Humor.

* Patch – Son of Union Rags got his name after suffering massive inflammation in the globe of his left eye but before the eye was removed by doctors. “I think they sealed his fate with that name,” trainer Todd Pletcher joked.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 9:46 am 
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It's definitely overwhelming.

I've always liked horse racing but I'm trying to get into the gambling aspect of it and reading about the Derby and the horses is such a mindfuck. I have no idea what I'm reading.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 9:55 am 
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Hockey Gay wrote:
It's definitely overwhelming.

I've always liked horse racing but I'm trying to get into the gambling aspect of it and reading about the Derby and the horses is such a mindfuck. I have no idea what I'm reading.


You are not alone. I live a mile away from an OTB but rarely go. Too many races and tracks and I have no idea how to play in an intelligent manner. Even though I likely have way worse odds I go 13 miles to the casino.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 10:07 am 
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any of these guys can tell you, you can think you know everything and still lose. just like anything in gambling.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 10:14 am 
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True but I'd like to know enough about horse racing where I could have a conversation about it with someone like Walt, JORR or Camps and hold my own. All I can really add to a conversation about betting horses right now is "I bet on this one because he looks cool".


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 10:15 am 
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honestly, sometimes that's enough.

i've won a few bucks on names alone. also lost some.

there are some things that can tip you off about a horse's chances though. how well they run on a surface, who the jockey is, what course & distance they're best at...

unless it's an aussie race. then it's fuck all.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 10:42 am 
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spmack wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
So what should somebody who only bets on pretty much one horserace a year bet for this thing?

Just put down a straight bet to win on either Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, or McCraken. Don't read into anything else because it may be too overwhelming.

Whatever you can afford, even if it's just a few bucks. If you choose one of those 3 to win and they do, you're looking at least 4-1 odds. So a $20 bet would get you back $100.
For sure. I always trust the opinions of those who post regularly in this section though. I also usually throw a few bucks on a longshot just because I like the name. War Emblem and Mine That Bird turned $5 into a nice weekend of drinking for me back in the day

I usually throw a buck on two or three different trifectas. What would be your suggestion for that?


Also, I refuse to bet on anything named McCraken. Fuck that guy.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 12:10 pm 
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One of the keys to betting on the ponies as told to me by my dear Pappy is roll the program up as tight as possible beat your leg and yell come on motherfuckah :)

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 12:53 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
better handicap for mudders


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 4:09 pm 
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spmack wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
So what should somebody who only bets on pretty much one horserace a year bet for this thing?

Just put down a straight bet to win on either Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, or McCraken. Don't read into anything else because it may be too overwhelming.

Whatever you can afford, even if it's just a few bucks. If you choose one of those 3 to win and they do, you're looking at least 4-1 odds. So a $20 bet would get you back $100.


Or you can just bet Classic Empire across (win, show, place) Jimmy-the-Greek-style and probably will see a good payoff.

Forecast is calling for showers in the a.m. followed by overcast skies in the afternoon. So shouldn't be an issue. I just don't want it to be another Preakness from last year. That was crazy.

JORR, you have any feel for Hence and Tapwrit here, both at 15-1? Hence has the late speed, and the $1 million Tapwrit looks like he could rebound after the 6-wide disappointing performance in the Blue Grass. In terms of distance stamina, I still like Tapwrit. Just a matter of whether he gets a good trip or not, which you can say about every other horse in the field.

I like Thunder Snow in the #2 post. I've read several articles about him now, calling him a "classic" derby horse. There is a lot of reporter interest in him apparently. He does make a good story. I see him being on or close to the pace. Question is whether he can go wire to wire? I don't see why not after winning the 1 3/16 mi. UAE.

Lastly, hard not to like Mike Smith on Girvin.


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Thu May 04, 2017 5:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 4:38 pm 
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spmack wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
So what should somebody who only bets on pretty much one horserace a year bet for this thing?

Just put down a straight bet to win on either Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, or McCraken. Don't read into anything else because it may be too overwhelming.

Whatever you can afford, even if it's just a few bucks. If you choose one of those 3 to win and they do, you're looking at least 4-1 odds. So a $20 bet would get you back $100.


You can play the Kentucky Derby leaderboard as well. It goes Girvin#1, Classic Empire#2, Gormely#3, and Irap#4. These are the horses that have won the most Derby points, so theoretically it should be a good indicator. I read today that since Bodemeister, they changed the point system to make it favor more derby-type races. It goes back to when Bodemeister came in 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, only because he was chasing a sprinter who didn't belong in the Kentucky Derby to being with. Even after running blistering early fractions, he still almost held on to win. Old Baffert was pissed about that one.


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Thu May 04, 2017 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 4:45 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
JORR, you have any feel for Hence and Tapwrit here, both at 15-1?



I think Hence is a serious contender to win this race. I don't believe Tapwrit can win but I will be playing him in the back of some tickets.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 4:58 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
I read today that since Bodemeister, they changed the point system to make it favor more derby-type races. It goes back to when Bodemeister came in 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, only because he was chasing a sprinter who didn't belong in the Kentucky Derby to being with.



That's not really correct. Trinniberg was chasing Bodemeister who lead at every call except the one where they pay the cash. I suspect the points system has a lot more to do with favoring CDI tracks than with eliminating sprinters from the race. Duchossois stuck it right up Hawthorne/Carey's ass by making sure the venerable Illinois Derby had no points.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 5:17 pm 
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I think Girvin is my horse


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 5:21 pm 
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Hockey Gay wrote:
I think Girvin is my horse


Here's the scoop on Girvin.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/ ... urday_123#


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 5:40 pm 
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Hockey Gay wrote:
True but I'd like to know enough about horse racing where I could have a conversation about it with someone like Walt, JORR or Camps and hold my own. All I can really add to a conversation about betting horses right now is "I bet on this one because he looks cool".


Of course I cannot hold a candle to the illuminati here but following is some stuff I look for:

*History on same track, surface and condition, distance, and quality of competition.
*Is the horse improving or getting worse?
*Long layoff? Suspicious of those.
*Trainer record.
*Trainer/jockey combo record.

I try to make my picks before listening to the track guys (i.e Brian Spencer). It seems they are wrong more often than not. And I try not to get mesmerized by favorites. I think the favorite actually wins less than 30% of the time.

Picking horses is not easy, especially exotics like exactas, etc. But that is the reason I like horse racing: Unlike mindless gambling like stuffing a slot machine, scratching lottery tickets or even following the rules of blackjack, one has to put some thought in to it. And unlike some of my casino visits, at the track I can make the bankroll last a while. My wife enjoys it too so we have a good time going to the track in the summer and OTB in the winter.

Finally, when all else fails I simply bet the gray horse :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 5:57 pm 
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I think I got my four.

Classic Empire has looked great in every race but the one that had Irish War Cry, and Irish War Cry is in this race.

He's got classic pedigree, being the son of Curlin, who himself hit the board in all three of his Triple Crown races---3rd in the Kentucky Derby.

And it's good he's not cramped with an inside post, drawing 17 here. He won the Wood Memorial from the outside 8 post.

That's my safe pick. Mark Casse has had nothing but good things to say about this horse.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 6:28 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
I think I got my four.

Classic Empire has looked great in every race but the one that had Irish War Cry, and Irish War Cry is in this race.

He's got classic pedigree, being the son of Curlin, who himself hit the board in all three of his Triple Crown races---3rd in the Kentucky Derby.

And it's good he's not cramped with an inside post, drawing 17 here. He won the Wood Memorial from the outside 8 post.

That's my safe pick. Mark Casse has had nothing but good things to say about this horse.



I believe the overall most talented colts in the race are Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, and Battle of Midway. Battle of Midway probably isn't ready for this type of race right now. The caveat with Classic Empire is that he has had problems in the gate almost every time he's raced. If he gets wild with the big crowd and doesn't come out clean in a 20 horse field it's probably going to be something he can't overcome. It's a good sign that he handled himself professionally in a big field in Arkansas. That isn't THE Derby though.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 7:11 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
I think I got my four.

Classic Empire has looked great in every race but the one that had Irish War Cry, and Irish War Cry is in this race.

He's got classic pedigree, being the son of Curlin, who himself hit the board in all three of his Triple Crown races---3rd in the Kentucky Derby.

And it's good he's not cramped with an inside post, drawing 17 here. He won the Wood Memorial from the outside 8 post.

That's my safe pick. Mark Casse has had nothing but good things to say about this horse.



I believe the overall most talented colts in the race are Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, and Battle of Midway. Battle of Midway probably isn't ready for this type of race right now. The caveat with Classic Empire is that he has had problems in the gate almost every time he's raced. If he gets wild with the big crowd and doesn't come out clean in a 20 horse field it's probably going to be something he can't overcome. It's a good sign that he handled himself professionally in a big field in Arkansas. That isn't THE Derby though.


Thanks JORR. I had Battle of Midway to place in the San Anita. He's in deeper waters here. Then again, he's lightly run and may step up. You're getting a good price.

I am with you on Always Dreaming. Serious contender to win.

Excuse me, Casse is the trainer for Classic Empire.


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Thu May 04, 2017 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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