Hence this AM. giving you an idea of track conditions
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| Kentucky Derby http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=106326 |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Thu May 04, 2017 7:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
just remember, rain is most likely going to be a factor. i don't think there's an exaggerator-type here. |
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| Author: | newper [ Thu May 04, 2017 11:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
W_Z wrote: just remember, rain is most likely going to be a factor. i don't think there's an exaggerator-type here. Fun derby story -- I was in the infield in 2004 when everyone's favorite Smarty Jones won... about an hour before the race went off, the skies opened and it poured rain -- nasty amounts of rain coming down, portions of the infield are getting flooded. There's not a lot of places to stay that are covered, so my friend and I hook up with this family that has a tarp, and they invite us to camp out under it. We're already completely soaked but happy to get out of the rain. The kid in the family, maybe 16-17, reaches into his pocket, pulls out a joint and asks if we want to light up. His mom says, "Not in front of me you don't!" He puts it back into his pocket. Next, reaches into his other pocket, pulls out a ziploc bag of whiskey and asks if we want some... we politely decline, the mom says nothing, he has a quick swig and then tells his parents he's going to go play in the mud. After about thirty minutes the rain passes, we bid our goodbyes and head out to the paddock area and then end up moving to the tunnel under the seating area. The parade of horses goes by and we are about five feet away from each horse, knowing that one of these horses is going to become a legend. Turn around and there's a men's bathroom that is about 30% filled with women trying to stay out of the rain. It was a good time. |
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| Author: | FavreFan [ Thu May 04, 2017 11:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
I got Irish War Cry. Fuck the British |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Fri May 05, 2017 6:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
Hence this AM. giving you an idea of track conditions |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Fri May 05, 2017 7:15 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
W_Z wrote: just remember, rain is most likely going to be a factor. i don't think there's an exaggerator-type here. Not Classic Empire? |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Fri May 05, 2017 7:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKwQtb-s4ds&feature=share |
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| Author: | a retard [ Fri May 05, 2017 7:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: 
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri May 05, 2017 8:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
An Accuweather forecast said the following about expected weather conditions tomorrow. “While rain gear will be a good idea, [the race] does not look like a washout, and rainfall amounts should not be all that heavy,” Thompson said. “By post time for the Derby at 6:34 p.m. [EDT], there's a good chance it will be dry and the sun may even break through by then.” As a result, Thompson expects track conditions for the “Run for the Roses” to be listed as "good" or "fast." Instead of precipitation, the wind may be a factor. “Winds will be out of the northwest at 7-14 mph [on Saturday],” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said. “Given the orientation of the track, the horses will have a bit of a head wind along the front stretch and a tail wind along the back stretch.” Against that head wind, I would guess that the pace setters are going to tire more easily, tilting the race in favor of the deep closers. Looking at Lee, Sonneteer and Tapwrit deserve another look then. Sonneteer had the best workout for 4f of 22 horses that worked that distance on Monday. New York Post's Vic Cangialosi is surprisingly picking Looking at Lee third. His show finish in the Arkansas was indeed impressive, with the horse having to weave in and out of traffic. Add another furlong and he might have caught Classic Empire. |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Fri May 05, 2017 9:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: W_Z wrote: just remember, rain is most likely going to be a factor. i don't think there's an exaggerator-type here. Not Classic Empire? From what I've read there aren't any "mudders" in the field. I wouldn't be surprised if a long shot took it because of the terrain. I have read some support for Hence even. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Fri May 05, 2017 9:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
W_Z wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: W_Z wrote: just remember, rain is most likely going to be a factor. i don't think there's an exaggerator-type here. Not Classic Empire? From what I've read there aren't any "mudders" in the field. I wouldn't be surprised if a long shot took it because of the terrain. I have read some support for Hence even. https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling/2017-which-kentucky-derby-runners-would-benefit-wet-track |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Fri May 05, 2017 10:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
i hadn't read that; but it still leaves everything up in the air. i actually had forgotten Gormley ran on a wet track. but like the article says, not all wet tracks are equal. classic empire could still be a safe bet. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri May 05, 2017 11:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
My four are Always Dreaming, Hence, Girvin and Looking at Lee in that order. I didn't like the way Irish War Cry finished the Wood Memorial, where he was just galloping. Going to need more tenacity to win this race. Plus, his time was slow, and he didn't beat anybody. My side-plays are Thunder Snow, Tapwrit and Practical Joke. Good Luck All! |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Fri May 05, 2017 2:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
W_Z wrote: i hadn't read that; but it still leaves everything up in the air. i actually had forgotten Gormley ran on a wet track. but like the article says, not all wet tracks are equal. classic empire could still be a safe bet. like you you're approaching the game |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Fri May 05, 2017 5:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: They're gonna have their hands full trying to beat Paradise Woods in that one. Lots a speed here Joseph Miss Sky Warrior Lock Down Farrell all be running for the lead...speed collapses and Salty and Abel Tasman pick up the pieces Good call, Walt. I didn't think Paradise Woods needed the lead and I sure didn't think Prat would ride her like that. That's a fat exacta that wasn't that hard to have. I keyed my biggest bets with Paradise Woods up top, but I'm alive in the Double to Always Dreaming, Hence, Classic Empire, and Battle of Midway. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Fri May 05, 2017 5:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: They're gonna have their hands full trying to beat Paradise Woods in that one. Lots a speed here Joseph Miss Sky Warrior Lock Down Farrell all be running for the lead...speed collapses and Salty and Abel Tasman pick up the pieces Good call, Walt. I didn't think Paradise Woods needed the lead and I sure didn't think Prat would ride her like that. That's a fat exacta that wasn't that hard to have. I keyed my biggest bets with Paradise Woods up top, but I'm alive in the Double to Always Dreaming, Hence, Classic Empire, and Battle of Midway. Don't know how much the slop played.. have the double going with Empire/McCraken/Practical Joke have the Oaks/Woodford/Derby Bal a Baliw Empire/McCraken/Practical Joke |
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| Author: | spmack [ Fri May 05, 2017 5:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
Gunnevera guys....that's where I'm leaning right now. |
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| Author: | Godfella [ Fri May 05, 2017 5:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
Anybody hear who Eddie O picked? I can't find anything on the interwebz except Eddie on a Eric & Kathy hour-long podcast. Pass. |
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| Author: | K Effective [ Fri May 05, 2017 6:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
My only trip to The Downs (NOT for The Derby) was in the early 80's, and I only bet one horse, Ida's Son (my grandma was Ida). Won big. IF they had come clean and said McCracken was purely from Kingpin, I think that sways my vote... |
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| Author: | Hockey Gay [ Fri May 05, 2017 6:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
I'm at Arlington Park tonight. Made my bets for the Derby. I have Girvin to win and Girvin, Classic Empire, McCracken and Thundersnow in a $1 trifecta box. The woman has McCracken to win. |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Fri May 05, 2017 7:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
Kentucky Oaks/Derby will-pays with Oaks winner Abel Tasman for $1 wager 1 Lookin At Lee $302.80 2 Thunder Snow $223.30 3 Fast and Accurate $1,195.00 4 Untrapped $799.10 5 Always Dreaming $73.00 6 State of Honor $714.90 7 Girvin $204.40 8 Hence $148.90 9 Irap $412.10 10 Gunnevera $76.00 11 Battle of Midway $387.20 12 Sonneteer $407.80 13 J Boys Echo $310.30 14 Classic Empire $73.40 15 McCraken $82.00 16 Tapwrit $235.90 17 Irish War Cry $69.90 18 Gormley $226.70 19 Practical Joke $191.90 20 Patch $668.70 |
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| Author: | Frank Coztansa [ Fri May 05, 2017 9:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
Battle of Midway. I also have Irish War Cry & Gunnevera to win. I have trifectas with Hence, Battle of Midway, Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming, Gunnevera, & Battle of Midway. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat May 06, 2017 6:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
Frank Coztansa wrote: Battle of Midway. I also have Irish War Cry & Gunnevera to win. I have trifectas with Hence, Battle of Midway, Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming, Gunnevera, & Battle of Midway. good luck |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat May 06, 2017 7:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
this might help out some newbies http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20170505/arlington-opens-10-tips-to-handicapping-the-horses-at-the-racetrack |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Sat May 06, 2017 9:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
well i don't know about eddie o, but this jody demling bloke seems to like Always Dreaming. he's had a good streak of picking past winners i guess, but this is such a wide open thing, especially because of the slop. equibase likes frank's horse, battle of midway, and gormley. i think speed figs and all that shit goes out the window when it comes to running in mud anyway. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat May 06, 2017 10:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
The reason why Thunder Snow drifted down the stretch in the UAE is because he was distracted by the gate marks in the dirt, according to the jockey after the race. Well, he's not going to have that problem today. I still think he's one of the three best horses in the field along with Always Dreaming and Hence. If Gunnerva runs today like he did in the Fountain of Youth, he's got a chance to win. Anything better than 10-1, let alone 15-1 would be a steal, and I will use him instead of Practical Joke and Tapwrit. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat May 06, 2017 11:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
Godfella wrote: Anybody hear who Eddie O picked? I can't find anything on the interwebz except Eddie on a Eric & Kathy hour-long podcast. Pass. McCraken |
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| Author: | a retard [ Sat May 06, 2017 12:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
Exacta 5,11,14 / 5,10,11,14,18 |
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| Author: | Hockey Gay [ Sat May 06, 2017 1:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
I made more bets this morning |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Sat May 06, 2017 1:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
5/8/14/15 Box with MANY other similar bets. Wife and daughter also have bets on Thunder Snow and, of course, Patch. There's a lot of fucking horses in this race. I guess that's better than having an overwhelming favorite. |
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| Author: | Hockey Gay [ Sat May 06, 2017 2:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Kentucky Derby |
My brother bet on Thunder Snow. He is the luckiest person with gambling and has won nearly a grand by playing the lotto just this last month. I remember our parent's taking us to the track when he was just a few years old and he wanted my Mom to put $20 on the 50-1 horse during the Arlington million because the horse made eye contact with him.We all laughed and thought it was cute and then the horse won. If Thunder Snow wins this I might murder him. |
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