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The Whitney/Hambletonian
http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=107733		 Page 2 of 2
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Aug 04, 2017 10:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Whitney/Hambletonian
I've now added Brad H. Cox to my trainer contacts. I messaged him on FB about Arklow today and he responded.

Basically, I told him it wasn't his horse's fault today, but Geroux's. He thanked me for the "outside perspective."

Nice guy, though he said he was a Packers fan. I won't hold that against him.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Whitney/Hambletonian
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Bricks and Mortar was Christmas in July 4-1 :D



That's a nice horse. I figured the pace would be a little softer in there and it didn't help that Secretary At War stumbled coming out of the gate.

Who do you like in the Test? I think Vertical Oak has a HUGE shot in there.

How about the Hillbilly Derby?

By the way, Walt, it's August.

not August until I get my SS check

let's see the test...I love American Gal stumbled still won...Chalon Paco might steal this :shock: your horse Vertical Oak well campaigned I loved his sir...thinking he might want more ground.....,and Rube thinks the jockey sucks,Those 3 exacta and tri boxes.W VA Derby what a shit field McCormick win and place
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Aug 05, 2017 2:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Whitney/Hambletonian
Victor Gio It and Perfect Spirit are animals to be dealt with in the second heat.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Mon Aug 07, 2017 9:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Whitney/Hambletonian
I ain't kicking Arklow out of my stable yet, not after giving Brad H. Cox a pep talk to step it up.

Let's see how he responds. I'd like to see Arklow back on dirt.

But Geroux, he's kicked out for good. Anyone would look good riding Gun Runner.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Whitney/Hambletonian
Dignified Rube wrote:
I ain't kicking Arklow out of my stable yet, not after giving Brad H. Cox a pep talk to step it up.

Let's see how he responds. I'd like to see Arklow back on dirt.

But Geroux, he's kicked out for good. Anyone would look good riding Gun Runner.

Rube my man it's not the jockey,trainer.the fix is in.....sometime we just handicap like shit!
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Tue Aug 08, 2017 12:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Whitney/Hambletonian
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
I ain't kicking Arklow out of my stable yet, not after giving Brad H. Cox a pep talk to step it up.

Let's see how he responds. I'd like to see Arklow back on dirt.

But Geroux, he's kicked out for good. Anyone would look good riding Gun Runner.

Rube my man it's not the jockey,trainer.the fix is in.....sometime we just handicap like shit!


I don't know how you pulled a rabbit out of your hat with Bricks and Mortar with those speed figures, Walt, but kudos.

In the future, I'll be more careful about taking horses with outside posts in turf races. Too much to overcome in getting position, even with a good horse.

I'm not really seeing anything I like until the 7th at Del Mar on Friday. I'm going to try using the Beyer Figures from now on, which are supposed to be best, but they don't give you EP vs. LP breakdown.
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Aug 08, 2017 1:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Whitney/Hambletonian
Dignified Rube wrote:
I don't know how you pulled a rabbit out of your hat with Bricks and Mortar with those speed figures, Walt, but kudos.



Dude, I told you Bricks and Mortar will win the Breeder's Cup mile over a month ago:

viewtopic.php?f=129&t=107251&p=2748872&hilit=Bricks+and+Mortar#p2748872


He's never lost a race. Why would his speed figures matter? He's running as fast as he needs to. If you watch his race on the Fourth of July and see the way he closed into a weak pace on a track that was playing well up front, it was just fucking unbelievable.
Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Tue Aug 08, 2017 1:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Whitney/Hambletonian
Dignified Rube wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
I ain't kicking Arklow out of my stable yet, not after giving Brad H. Cox a pep talk to step it up.

Let's see how he responds. I'd like to see Arklow back on dirt.

But Geroux, he's kicked out for good. Anyone would look good riding Gun Runner.

Rube my man it's not the jockey,trainer.the fix is in.....sometime we just handicap like shit!


I don't know how you pulled a rabbit out of your hat with Bricks and Mortar with those speed figures, Walt, but kudos.

In the future, I'll be more careful about taking horses with outside posts in turf races. Too much to overcome in getting position, even with a good horse.

I'm not really seeing anything I like until the 7th at Del Mar on Friday. I'm going to try using the Beyer Figures from now on, which are supposed to be best, but they don't give you EP vs. LP breakdown.
the Million
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Whitney/Hambletonian
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
I don't know how you pulled a rabbit out of your hat with Bricks and Mortar with those speed figures, Walt, but kudos.



Dude, I told you Bricks and Mortar will win the Breeder's Cup mile over a month ago:

http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.ph ... r#p2748872


He's never lost a race. Why would his speed figures matter? He's running as fast as he needs to. If you watch his race on the Fourth of July and see the way he closed into a weak pace on a track that was playing well up front, it was just fucking unbelievable.


If he did that well, then his performance should have been reflected in the speed figures. That's what I'm trying to understand. Where was the evidence? He did have a good LP figure, but I wasn't sure his EP figures could put him in a position to win. I'm guilty of having had my mind set on Arklow, too. Goes back to what Walt said, bad handicapping. I should have watched videos of Bricks and Mortar and the other horses, as you said.

My decision was mostly quantitatively driven, plus I was convinced Geroux would be gunning for it. Arklow came up best by a good margin. But as I said, the horse fell victim to jockey error and a bad post. I don't think it was the horses fault at all. I saw how he wanted to run down the stretch. No where to go.
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Whitney/Hambletonian
Dignified Rube wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
I don't know how you pulled a rabbit out of your hat with Bricks and Mortar with those speed figures, Walt, but kudos.



Dude, I told you Bricks and Mortar will win the Breeder's Cup mile over a month ago:

viewtopic.php?f=129&t=107251&p=2748872&hilit=Bricks+and+Mortar#p2748872


He's never lost a race. Why would his speed figures matter? He's running as fast as he needs to. If you watch his race on the Fourth of July and see the way he closed into a weak pace on a track that was playing well up front, it was just fucking unbelievable.


If he did that well, then his performance should have been reflected in the speed figures. That's what I'm trying to understand. Where was the evidence? He did have a good LP figure, but I wasn't sure his EP figures could put him in a position to win. I'm guilty of having had my mind set on Arklow, too. Goes back to what Walt said, bad handicapping. I should have watched videos of all this horse, as you said.

My decision was purely quantitatively driven. I trust my model, has had good success at times. Arklow came up best by a good margin. But as I said, he fell victim to jockey error and a bad post.


It's like a pitcher's W/L record. It's who you beat, not how fast you go doing it. Good horses win slow races and fast races. Bricks and Mortar isn't slow.
Author:  Dignified Rube [ Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Whitney/Hambletonian
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
I don't know how you pulled a rabbit out of your hat with Bricks and Mortar with those speed figures, Walt, but kudos.



Dude, I told you Bricks and Mortar will win the Breeder's Cup mile over a month ago:

http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.ph ... r#p2748872


He's never lost a race. Why would his speed figures matter? He's running as fast as he needs to. If you watch his race on the Fourth of July and see the way he closed into a weak pace on a track that was playing well up front, it was just fucking unbelievable.


If he did that well, then his performance should have been reflected in the speed figures. That's what I'm trying to understand. Where was the evidence? He did have a good LP figure, but I wasn't sure his EP figures could put him in a position to win. I'm guilty of having had my mind set on Arklow, too. Goes back to what Walt said, bad handicapping. I should have watched videos of all this horse, as you said.

My decision was purely quantitatively driven. I trust my model, has had good success at times. Arklow came up best by a good margin. But as I said, he fell victim to jockey error and a bad post.


It's like a pitcher's W/L record. It's who you beat, not how fast you go doing it. Good horses win slow races and fast races. Bricks and Mortar isn't slow.


I agree, JORR. I look at that, too.

But Timeline had both the speed and the undefeated record, and he didn't win his last. Neither did Arrogate. It's still a crap shoot to some degree.

This guy at the OTB on Sat. put $30 on a horse. Don't know what race it was. And then he's red in the face, because his horse lost the jockey. I felt bad for the guy. In horse racing, shit happens more often than you'd guess.
Author:  W_Z [ Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Whitney/Hambletonian
i shoulda just believed in b&m.

i'm not sure what horse/race to look forward to in the near future though.
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Whitney/Hambletonian
W_Z wrote:
i shoulda just believed in b&m.

i'm not sure what horse/race to look forward to in the near future though.



The Travers looks like it's going to be a great betting race.
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