Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
W_Z wrote:
JORR must be 
hope he didn't let it ride on Paradise Woods
I can't be too upset with Prat for getting cute there. He gave me the good ride when it counted.
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| Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=109306 |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: W_Z wrote: JORR must be hope he didn't let it ride on Paradise Woods I can't be too upset with Prat for getting cute there. He gave me the good ride when it counted. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Day 2 4th 1-1;8 Juv Fillies SeparationofPowers I think good enough to overcome a shitty PP 5th 5 furlongs turf my heart says Hogy a closer in 5 furlongs I'm crazy 6th 7 furlongs gals Unique Bella 7th 1-1/8 Turf Girls Senga ground saving trip 8th 6 furlongs DeFrong all the horse does is win 9th Mile turf Ribchester great form across the pond 10th 1-1/16 Bolt D[Oro no wager just waych 11th 1-1/2 grass speed every where Sadlers Joy picks up the pieces 12th 1-1/4 Mubtaahij might just box a Baffert Superfecta 
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 8:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
1st Race- Get off to a good start with On Leave. Off the rail coming off a sub-29 in her last race at a buck sixteenth and cutting back to a mile. That angle didn't work so great yesterday, though Best Performance got close at 16/1. If the price is right I'm gonna keep pounding it. 2nd Race- I think Night at the Opera will be tough in here. 3rd Race- Very tough race. Ward's specialty five furlongs turf for two year olds and he has three runners in here. I suspect Fairyland will be more heavily bet but that McErin is the better of the two. First time gelding today. Good chance at a nice price. 4th Race, Juvenile Fillies- Moonshine Memories is the one to beat. Depending on the prices I will be trying with Princess Warrior or Caledonia Road. 5th Race, Turf Sprint- I don't usually like to bet a horse that is 0-fer the distance, but if you get beyond Lady Aurelia and you're trying to beat her at a price, this is a pretty unimpressive group. I think Holding Gold has a chance. 6th Race, Filly and Mare Sprint- I am AGAINST Unique Bella. There are several in here that I believe can beat her including Constellation and Highway Star. Depending on the odds I'm probably going to try Carina Mia off the rail. She should get a good set up just behind the speed. 7th Race, Filly and Mare Turf- I see this as an extremely tough race. Lady Eli is going to get a lot of the money. I don't think she's a cinch in here. I'm going to be looking for an overlay, maybe Avenge or War Flag. 8th Race, Sprint- Drefong may just run away in here, but depending on the prices I might try to beat him. I don't think he's going to have it easy on the front. Takaful is loaded for this race and he only knows one way. American Pastime is going to be sitting right behind those two and he's super sharp. 9th Race, Mile- Ribchester is obviously the best European miler in the race. I don't think he has to win from out there though. I'll probably be looking to use some lobsters in this race in horizontals. Blackjackcat appears cheap but he's razor sharp and suited for the distance. He has the speed to get a good early spot from outside. And from the 13 hole a few days after Halloween, there's a hunch bet! I'll probably also use Zelzal, Suedois, and Karar. 10th Race, Juvenile- Bolt d'Oro looks like a mortal monster. I'm not sure how you beat him. He may be a single for me in horizontals and maybe I'll try to catch something big behind him like The Tabulator. 11th Race, Turf- I'm going with Seventh Heaven in this one. She's coming out of the Arc and figures to be overlooked here. She's about half the price at the English books as she will be at Del Mar today. I'll also be using Decorated Knight and Highland Reel in horizontals. 12th Race, Classic- I love Gun Runner but he's NEVER won at the distance and the horses he faced all summer were nowhere near the quality of this field. Arrogate has some questions to answer and a lot of people seem to believe he can't run at Del Mar. If he's 2/1 he's very hard to ignore. If he isn't his best, I still don't think Gun Runner will win. West Coast has looked like an absolute machine and he should have a nice trip in here. If the pace is hot enough, Gunnevera has a chance. And I wouldn't completely toss War Decree. Good luck and good racing, boys! |
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| Author: | denisdman [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
I should be upstairs at Trackside by noon. I’ll bet as you laid it out Jorr, thanks. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:12 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
If you go by historical winning percentages, the differences between the top horses in the Classic are minuscule. It goes West Coast, Arrogate, Collected and then Gun Runner (13.8%, 12.4%, 11.8% and 10.8%). Churchill is also at 10.8%. By speed, Arrogate and Gun Runner have the edge by a good margin. At 2-1 the odds would be about fair for Arrogate. Gun Runner is rich at that price. It's a toss up, but if the track is speed favoring, then Collected and West Coast stand a better chance. Gunnevera is the wild card. |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: 4th Race, Juvenile Fillies- Moonshine Memories is the one to beat. Depending on the prices I will be trying with Princess Warrior or Caledonia Road.  damn dude.
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| Author: | denisdman [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
W_Z wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: 4th Race, Juvenile Fillies- Moonshine Memories is the one to beat. Depending on the prices I will be trying with Princess Warrior or Caledonia Road. damn dude.Yeap but not to win. The fifth is shit, 3-5 favorite... |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
W_Z wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: 4th Race, Juvenile Fillies- Moonshine Memories is the one to beat. Depending on the prices I will be trying with Princess Warrior or Caledonia Road. damn dude.BOOM! |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
JORR, remember when we all bet your horse at Arlington and it started running the wrong way and then died halfway through the race? I think you did that on purpose. |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
leashyourkids wrote: JORR, remember when we all bet your horse at Arlington and it started running the wrong way and then died halfway through the race? I think you did that on purpose. Shit happens.
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: leashyourkids wrote: JORR, remember when we all bet your horse at Arlington and it started running the wrong way and then died halfway through the race? I think you did that on purpose. Shit happens. I know. I’m just kidding.It was like the opposite of a slow clap. Everyone started out cheering and yelling for the horse, and then it slowly faded into people quietly praying that the horse didn’t jump the fence and start running into people and property. |
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| Author: | a retard [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Mr. D's yesterday, other commitments keeping me from a do-over there today. It's been a rough ride for me (so far!) but nonetheless the Breeder's Cup has become one of my favorite weekends of the year. Good luck all! |
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| Author: | Hockey Gay [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 5:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Been watching all day but finally decided to bet on the last race and nailed it with Roy H. |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 5:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Blackjackcat tons the best and an impossible trip. Goddamn. That's a tough beat. |
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| Author: | Hockey Gay [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Here we go, men. Main event time. Who we got? |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
At 2/1 I have to go with Arrogate. |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Everything on Mubtahiij |
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| Author: | a retard [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
leashyourkids wrote: Everything on Mubtahiij Are you one of Al Michael's reprobates? |
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| Author: | a retard [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
5-8-11 boxed exacta. |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
a genius wrote: leashyourkids wrote: Everything on Mubtahiij Are you one of Al Michael's reprobates? You’re a genius. |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Is that Naomi Watts? |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
| Oh, that was Jewel. I love Jewel.
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
a genius wrote: 5-8-11 boxed exacta. Nice! |
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| Author: | leashyourkids [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:58 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
a genius wrote: 5-8-11 boxed exacta. You’re having a better week than Harvey Weinstein. |
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| Author: | badrogue17 [ Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Kap and Edzo had the exacta for $7640. Donated to cancer research . |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:05 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Only thing i hit on was a show bet on carina mia. Thought about taking edzo's exacta but went with arrogate. Ah well. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Egg on Baffert's face that he couldn't beat the one horse with his three  .Eddie O. was closest with his prediction. You would have tripled your money on the four-horse boxed tri-fecta. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
I do have to say that JORR got lucky with Battle of Midway. If you bet on a horse as many times JORR has taken Battle of Midway, he's gonna win one of those times. Compared to the other horses, there was nothing in his speed figures history to indicate that he could have been capable of winning. I know because I ran the numbers. I'll be done early from work today. Looking forward to catching up on the Friday races. |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
Dignified Rube wrote: I do have to say that JORR got lucky with Battle of Midway. If you bet on a horse as many times JORR has taken Battle of Midway, he's gonna win one of those times. Compared to the other horses, there was nothing in his speed figures history to indicate that he could have been capable of winning. I'll be done early from work today. Looking forward to catching up on the races. I bet on Battle of Midway to win four times in his career and he won three of those races and finished second in another. I bet him when he broke his maiden at 7/2. In the Santa Anita Derby I couldn't split him and Reach the World, but the prices did the work for me. Battle of Midway went off at 7/1 and I fired. He just missed. Then there was the Derby. I didn't think he could win but I used him in all the vertical gimmicks. He raced as well as anyone at 40/1. If not for that fucking Lookin at Lee he would have keyed HUGE tris and supers for me by finishing third. The next time I bet him was in some minor stake at Del Mar. I couldn't believe he went off at 3/1. He cakewalked the field. And then, of course he won the Dirt Mile and paid 30 bucks. I think you're underestimating the horse. |
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| Author: | W_Z [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:06 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Breeders' Cup- Nov.3-4 |
yeah i feel kinda like a fool for not taking a little bit of a chance on BOM. hindsight's 20/20 but it was nothing i didn't do on saturday, that didn't work out at all. laurel park R2 has professor snape. not just a name, but a pretty good horse too. 3/1 M/L so it might not be worth looking at in the end. won his last race at the same odds. a nooner race. i'll watch at lunch. |
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