Chicago Fanatics Message Board :: View topic - Clark Handicap at Churchill

Been working a new model the past couple of days that I hope will bring me some better results. I already have the logistic simulation model for speed figures, but the highest speed figures don't always translate into victory. For a while I had been thinking about a predictive model based on winning percentage, but I wanted one adjusted for stakes/class, too. Now I have a solution that takes that into account. It predicted back-to-back winners in two races at Parx two days ago, a 10-1 and a 5-1 shot, and just missed on a third race.

But I doubt any model could have picked Seeking the Soul in the Clark Hcp. That was JORR pulling a rabbit out of his hat.

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:19 pm ]
Post subject:	Clark Handicap at Churchill
Where are you guys? Shopping on Black Friday with all the zombies? Diversify has a huge speed edge in this one. He'll probably go off at 1/1. 3/1 on Hoppertunity is too short a price. 9 with 1,7,8 for the tri-fecta.

Author:	Joe Orr Road Rod [ Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:50 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Clark Handicap at Churchill
Sorry to redboard you, bro. I wish I had seen the thread sooner.

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Fri Nov 24, 2017 8:42 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Clark Handicap at Churchill
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Sorry to redboard you, bro. I wish I had seen the thread sooner. That's amazing. Congrats!! They had Diversify priced to perfection. I thought he was a sure winner with no odds, so I just played the unders in the tri-fecta, while keying Diversify #1. The model was giving him a 50% winning prob., even in this tough field! You can't take a horse like that lightly. The odds reflected it. I originally thought Seeking the Soul could be a surprise, along with Good Samaritan and the Player. They all had the late speed to factor in this race. Hoppertunity was disappointing only getting show, while I had hoped more from Honorable Duty. He had a good time at the 1 1/8 distance. The Player I thought was a possibility, and he was at least there around the final turn. Again, NICE CALL.

Author:	Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Nov 25, 2017 9:36 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Clark Handicap at Churchill
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Sorry to redboard you, bro. I wish I had seen the thread sooner. sorry my ass

Author:	Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Nov 25, 2017 9:41 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Clark Handicap at Churchill
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Sorry to redboard you, bro. I wish I had seen the thread sooner. sorry my ass

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Clark Handicap at Churchill http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=109661	Page 1 of 1

Author:	a retard [ Sat Nov 25, 2017 1:52 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Clark Handicap at Churchill
Nice!

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:13 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Clark Handicap at Churchill
Been working a new model the past couple of days that I hope will bring me some better results. I already have the logistic simulation model for speed figures, but the highest speed figures don't always translate into victory. For a while I had been thinking about a predictive model based on winning percentage, but I wanted one adjusted for stakes/class, too. Now I have a solution that takes that into account. It predicted back-to-back winners in two races at Parx two days ago, a 10-1 and a 5-1 shot, and just missed on a third race. But I doubt any model could have picked Seeking the Soul in the Clark Hcp. That was JORR pulling a rabbit out of his hat.

Author:	Joe Orr Road Rod [ Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:22 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Clark Handicap at Churchill
Dignified Rube wrote: Been working a new model the past couple of days that I hope will bring me some better results. I already have the logistic simulation model for speed figures, but the highest speed figures don't always translate into victory. For a while I had been thinking about a predictive model based on winning percentage, but I wanted one adjusted for stakes/class, too. Now I have a solution that takes that into account. It predicted back-to-back winners in two races at Parx two days ago, a 10-1 and a 5-1 shot, and just missed on a third race. But I doubt any model could have picked Seeking the Soul in the Clark Hcp. That was JORR pulling a rabbit out of his hat. Seeking the Soul had the highest OptixEQ speed fig in his previous race and he figured to get a good set up. Several of the other logical contenders appeared to be on regressive patterns. I've been using OptixEQ rather than the Racing Form recently. It takes a little bit of time to adjust to the format which is much different than the Form. I've been using the Form's past performances for 35 years. But an old dog can learn some new tricks. I prefer the Optix figs to Beyers and there is much more info available than what you get in the Form.

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:15 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Clark Handicap at Churchill
Got wins in the 3rd and 7th (4-1 shots) at Hawthone, the only races I bet on today. .

Author:	Dignified Rube [ Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:25 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Clark Handicap at Churchill
Cigar Mile? JORR? Hit the exacta, Sharp Azteca and Mind Your Biscuits. 16-1 odds.

Author:	Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:29 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Clark Handicap at Churchill
Dignified Rube wrote: Cigar Mile? JORR? Hit the exacta, Sharp Azteca and Mind Your Biscuits. 16-1 odds. I bet Seymourdini.

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