It is currently Tue Mar 19, 2024 1:48 am

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 28 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: Horse Racing Software
PostPosted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:30 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4656
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
If you are looking for some help handicapping, this is my site.

https://handicapwizard.com/

The software was developed by myself with the help of a well-known professor of business statistics at Indiana U. in Bloomington and MIT grad, Wayne Winston. One of the smartest guys you will ever meet, who actually appeared on Jeopardy and won twice! He was my professor when I attended Indiana's MBA program from 1998 to 2000.

I just received news today from the first customer of the program, Kevin B. from Illinois, who used it to handicap the Sam F. Davis Stakes yesterday at Tampa, that the Handicap Wizard picked the winner, Flameaway 10-1, over heavy favorite, Catholic Boy at 1-2.

You won't find a better program anywhere for theoretical odds. The results speak for themselves, which you can read about at.

https://handicapwizard.com/blog/

It also picked Gun Runner and West Coast, first and second, in the Pegasus, and had Gunnevera 4th, who came in 3rd in the race.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat May 12, 2018 7:04 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:45 am
Posts: 15843
pizza_Place: Salerno's
Fun story, good long-read:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... acing-code


Quote:
The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code
Bill Benter did the impossible: He wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at the track. Close to a billion dollars later, he tells his story for the first time.

Horse racing is something like a religion in Hong Kong, whose citizens bet more than anyone else on Earth. Their cathedral is Happy Valley Racecourse, whose grassy oval track and floodlit stands are ringed at night by one of the sport’s grandest views: neon skyscrapers and neat stacks of high-rises, a constellation of illuminated windows, and beyond them, lush hills silhouetted in darkness.

On the evening of Nov. 6, 2001, all of Hong Kong was talking about the biggest jackpot the city had ever seen: at least HK$100 million (then about $13 million) for the winner of a single bet called the Triple Trio. The wager is a little like a trifecta of trifectas; it requires players to predict the top three horses, in any order, in three different heats. More than 10 million combinations are possible. When no one picks correctly, the prize money rolls over to the next set of races. That balmy November night, the pot had gone unclaimed six times over. About a million people placed a bet—equivalent to 1 in 7 city residents.

At Happy Valley’s ground level, young women in beer tents passed foamy pitchers to laughing expats, while the local Chinese, for whom gambling is a more serious affair, clutched racing newspapers and leaned over the handrails. At the crack of the starter’s pistol, the announcer’s voice rang out over loudspeakers: “Last leg of the Triple Trio,” he shouted in Australian-accented English, “and away they go!”

As the pack thundered around the final bend, two horses muscled ahead. “It’s Mascot Treasure a length in front, but Bobo Duck is gunning him down,” said the announcer, voice rising. “Bobo Duck in front. Mascot fighting back!” The crowd roared as the riders raced across the finish line. Bobo Duck edged Mascot Treasure, and Frat Rat came in third.

Across the road from Happy Valley, 27 floors up, two Americans sat in a plush office, ignoring a live feed of the action that played mutely on a TV screen. The only sound was the hum of a dozen computers. Bill Benter and an associate named Paul Coladonato had their eyes fixed on a bank of three monitors, which displayed a matrix of bets their algorithm had made on the race—51,381 in all.

Benter and Coladonato watched as a software script filtered out the losing bets, one at a time, until there were 36 lines left on the screens. Thirty-five of their bets had correctly called the finishers in two of the races, qualifying for a consolation prize. And one wager had correctly predicted all nine horses.

“F---,” Benter said. “We hit it.”


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... acing-code


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat May 12, 2018 7:08 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:55 pm
Posts: 31852
Location: Wrigley
pizza_Place: Warren Buffet of Cock
DR., has the model been backtested? If so, what did you find?

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat May 12, 2018 8:08 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4656
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
denisdman wrote:
DR., has the model been backtested? If so, what did you find?


Yes. I looked at the results of a couple hundred races on six or seven different tracks. 32% winners with the combined estimate.

I think it's better than Prime Power for the reasons I give here: https://handicapwizard.com/hw-versus-prime-power/

However, I do not blindly follow my system only to play the winner. If I get the right odds, I'll play horses place and show, too, and exactas and tri-fectas.


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Sat May 12, 2018 8:20 pm, edited 4 times in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat May 12, 2018 8:17 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:55 pm
Posts: 31852
Location: Wrigley
pizza_Place: Warren Buffet of Cock
Dignified Rube wrote:
denisdman wrote:
DR., has the model been backtested? If so, what did you find?


Yes. I looked at the results of a couple hundred races on six or seven different tracks. 32% winners with the combined estimate.

I think it's better than Prime Power for the reasons I give here: https://handicapwizard.com/hw-versus-prime-power/


So we need to test this baby out? Whatcha think...

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat May 12, 2018 8:39 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4656
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
Hussra wrote:
Fun story, good long-read:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... acing-code


Quote:
The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code
Bill Benter did the impossible: He wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at the track. Close to a billion dollars later, he tells his story for the first time.

Horse racing is something like a religion in Hong Kong, whose citizens bet more than anyone else on Earth. Their cathedral is Happy Valley Racecourse, whose grassy oval track and floodlit stands are ringed at night by one of the sport’s grandest views: neon skyscrapers and neat stacks of high-rises, a constellation of illuminated windows, and beyond them, lush hills silhouetted in darkness.

On the evening of Nov. 6, 2001, all of Hong Kong was talking about the biggest jackpot the city had ever seen: at least HK$100 million (then about $13 million) for the winner of a single bet called the Triple Trio. The wager is a little like a trifecta of trifectas; it requires players to predict the top three horses, in any order, in three different heats. More than 10 million combinations are possible. When no one picks correctly, the prize money rolls over to the next set of races. That balmy November night, the pot had gone unclaimed six times over. About a million people placed a bet—equivalent to 1 in 7 city residents.

At Happy Valley’s ground level, young women in beer tents passed foamy pitchers to laughing expats, while the local Chinese, for whom gambling is a more serious affair, clutched racing newspapers and leaned over the handrails. At the crack of the starter’s pistol, the announcer’s voice rang out over loudspeakers: “Last leg of the Triple Trio,” he shouted in Australian-accented English, “and away they go!”

As the pack thundered around the final bend, two horses muscled ahead. “It’s Mascot Treasure a length in front, but Bobo Duck is gunning him down,” said the announcer, voice rising. “Bobo Duck in front. Mascot fighting back!” The crowd roared as the riders raced across the finish line. Bobo Duck edged Mascot Treasure, and Frat Rat came in third.

Across the road from Happy Valley, 27 floors up, two Americans sat in a plush office, ignoring a live feed of the action that played mutely on a TV screen. The only sound was the hum of a dozen computers. Bill Benter and an associate named Paul Coladonato had their eyes fixed on a bank of three monitors, which displayed a matrix of bets their algorithm had made on the race—51,381 in all.

Benter and Coladonato watched as a software script filtered out the losing bets, one at a time, until there were 36 lines left on the screens. Thirty-five of their bets had correctly called the finishers in two of the races, qualifying for a consolation prize. And one wager had correctly predicted all nine horses.

“F---,” Benter said. “We hit it.”


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... acing-code


Great article. That's what my software is, a private system of odds that is more accurate than the public odds (live odds). There is no perfect system that will predict the winner every time, because it would defy the laws of probability. But I do believe you can create a system that has an edge on the house by having a positive ROI over time, which is what mine is designed to do. I was helped by a former graduate professor in business statistics at Indiana, who himself is a mathematics grad from MIT. His name is Wayne Winston. Brilliant man.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 7:21 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4656
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
Regarding my claim that the odds of the model are more accurate than the live odds, there were two races on Saturday that illustrate this well. The first is the G3 Peter Pan (10th race) at Belmont from Saturday, which had a field of six. There were two favorites according to the live odds, Core Beliefs and High North, both at 2-1. Blended Citizen was the 4th choice at 9-2. However, the results of the program showed a different picture, that Blended Citizen was essentially as strong as Core Beliefs, because of Blended Citizen having the highest speed estimate of 38%. Both had a winning percentage of 30%, while High North and Just Whistle (5-2) had estimates less than 15%, translating to odds of 6-1 and 7-1. Blended Citizen's was the only horse in the top four to have a positive expected ROI of 60%, making it the best betting choice. And that was the horse that won. The model identified the top two horses and was correct with the order of the 3rd and 4th horses. By going by the live odds, the order would have been: Core Beliefs, High North, Just Whistle and Blended Citizen. Not even close. I could not embed the images in this post, but you an see the final odds, model probabilities and race results with these links:

http://s1273.photobucket.com/user/Chibe ... sort=3&o=3

http://s1273.photobucket.com/user/Chibe ... sort=3&o=1

http://s1273.photobucket.com/user/Chibe ... sort=3&o=5


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Mon May 14, 2018 7:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 7:27 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:55 pm
Posts: 31852
Location: Wrigley
pizza_Place: Warren Buffet of Cock
DR, so are you going to use the software and risk your own money? What is the play here? Hedge fund?

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 7:29 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4656
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
The other race was the night cap at Arlington on Sat., a $6,500 claiming race over 6 furlongs with twelve horses. The two favorites according to the live odds were Demand Ransom (2-1) and Hellofaguy (3-1). However, the model's top pick was Greenleys Spirit at 7-2. With a 31% winning probability, it's odds should have been closer to 2-1. Because of its superior speed, Greenleys Spirit won, beating the two favorites.

http://s1273.photobucket.com/user/Chibe ... sort=3&o=4

http://s1273.photobucket.com/user/Chibe ... sort=3&o=4

http://s1273.photobucket.com/user/Chibe ... sort=3&o=2


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 7:33 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4656
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
denisdman wrote:
DR, so are you going to use the software and risk your own money? What is the play here? Hedge fund?


I risk my own money all the time using the software, but I am not a big gambler. I mostly play Friday afternoons and Saturdays. Not on Sundays.

I wouldn't encourage anyone to gamble. But if you are going to partake in the sport that is horse racing, I would advise having a good system like this one.


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Mon May 14, 2018 7:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 7:34 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:55 pm
Posts: 31852
Location: Wrigley
pizza_Place: Warren Buffet of Cock
Dignified Rube wrote:
denisdman wrote:
DR, so are you going to use the software and risk your own money? What is the play here? Hedge fund?


I risk my own money all the time using the software, but I am not a big gambler. I mostly play Friday afternoons and Saturdays. Not on Sundays.

I wouldn't encourage anyone to gamble. But if you are going to partake in the great sport that is horse racing, I would advise having a good system like this one.


Ok gotcha. Maybe I show it to my dad and his collection of old timers that just bet each race thirty different ways. I swear that are contributing to deforestation with how many tickets they buy.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 8:42 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4656
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
The model had very good results with claiming races at Gulfstream on Saturday, even on the sloppy track, predicting the winners in five out of six (not counting a 5f race in the 11th). The ROI for these races was 212%.

https://handicapwizard.com/blog/


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 8:43 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun May 11, 2008 4:11 pm
Posts: 55695
Did this software pick Dan Fouts

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."


Frank Coztansa wrote:
I have MANY years of experience in trying to appreciate steaming piles of dogshit.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 9:12 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:15 pm
Posts: 39704
Location: Small Fringe Minority
pizza_Place: John's
Your website is an awful design btw. Nobody will take you seriously.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 10:40 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4656
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
Caller Bob wrote:
Your website is an awful design btw. Nobody will take you seriously.


You are the chief jerk of the board. And you're an ignoramus, too, to make such a statement, not knowing how the program has done.

I am limited what I can do through WordPress as the host site. What's more important anyway are the results, and those I have.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 10:42 am 
Offline
Site Admin
User avatar

Joined: Sun Apr 04, 2010 10:00 am
Posts: 76575
Location: Chicago Heights
pizza_Place: Aurelio's
Dignified Rube wrote:
You are the chief jerk of the board.


I wouldn't say that, but he's definitely a cabinet member.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 10:51 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4656
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
Caller Bob wrote:
Your website is an awful design btw. Nobody will take you seriously.


Do you have any idea how difficult it is in terms of nominal probability to pick five winners out of those five races with 42 horses total?

Extremely low, like three thousandths of a percent, .003%.

People who actually understand the profundity of that accomplishment do take the site seriously.


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Mon May 28, 2018 10:57 am, edited 2 times in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 10:55 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Feb 16, 2015 1:15 pm
Posts: 39704
Location: Small Fringe Minority
pizza_Place: John's
Its just constriuctive feedback. You will probably get more bites with a professional design.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 11:57 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4656
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
First race at Churchill over 1 1/16 mi. on dirt for 4 yr. olds, the model had Salsa Return (4-1) over two live odds favorites, More on Tap at 1 and Gizmo Jones at 5-2.

Salsa Return paid $10.60 for the win. Thank you very much. 8)

http://s1273.photobucket.com/user/Chibe ... sort=3&o=0

http://s1273.photobucket.com/user/Chibe ... sort=3&o=1

http://s1273.photobucket.com/user/Chibe ... sort=3&o=2


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 12:34 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:46 pm
Posts: 9893
pizza_Place: Q's Hillside
You need to add somebody with some user interface background, both for the Excel and the website. There are little things, like you need a more professional username for your photobucket uploads.

The model sounds interesting in that you can run it in Excel. I would have thought it would run in Python or R or something else which could crunch large scale data quickly. I've used logit and probit models in the past, our company does a lot of forecasting work for individuals, it's not the group I'm in but I learned it in graduate school.

A few questions - hint, you should start building an FAQ for your web site.
- I didn't see anything in the interface or the materials about confidence intervals. If horse A has an point estimate chance of winning of 18% and B is 14%, are you showing anything about your confidence that A actually > B?
- How much does the underlying data cost?
- How often are you planning to update the model to provide new coefficients? I can envision that while the general structure of the model is similar from track to track, the parameters will change over time, that is to say for example that post position may be a big deal at Track A, and less of a factor at Track B.
- Will it run on a tablet version of Excel? Or does it need VBA and all the bells and whistles of a full Windows Excel install?

_________________
“Build a man a fire and he’s warm for a day. But set a man on fire and he’s warm for the rest of his life."


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 12:36 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:55 pm
Posts: 31852
Location: Wrigley
pizza_Place: Warren Buffet of Cock
Let’s use the software for the Arlington Outing.....

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 1:23 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4656
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
You need to add somebody with some user interface background, both for the Excel and the website. There are little things, like you need a more professional username for your photobucket uploads.

The model sounds interesting in that you can run it in Excel. I would have thought it would run in Python or R or something else which could crunch large scale data quickly. I've used logit and probit models in the past, our company does a lot of forecasting work for individuals, it's not the group I'm in but I learned it in graduate school.

A few questions - hint, you should start building an FAQ for your web site.
- I didn't see anything in the interface or the materials about confidence intervals. If horse A has an point estimate chance of winning of 18% and B is 14%, are you showing anything about your confidence that A actually > B?
- How much does the underlying data cost?
- How often are you planning to update the model to provide new coefficients? I can envision that while the general structure of the model is similar from track to track, the parameters will change over time, that is to say for example that post position may be a big deal at Track A, and less of a factor at Track B.
- Will it run on a tablet version of Excel? Or does it need VBA and all the bells and whistles of a full Windows Excel install?


Good suggestion about the FAQs.

The photobucket uploads and links were just for posting here. When adding pages to the site, I upload the results directly to the site.

1. I somewhat addressed this on HW versus Prime Power on the site. The results are true probabilistic results, so there is increased confidence of a horse winning as the probability increases. I'm in the process of compiling and putting some of the data up you are looking for.

2. Brisnet single data files cost $1 for each card for a particular day. There is a monthly plan for about $120-130. You can find the pp data for free, if you want to go that route, and manually input it, too. The main feature of the software is that it processes the digital files instantly, saving the user a lot of time.

3. The model does not factor in post positions, but I would not consider that to be a significant determinant of outcomes. Would I consider other factors? Yes, if they can be incorporated into the probabilistic scheme of the model.

4. Yes, you need the full Excel version, because it runs offs a number of macros.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 1:36 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun May 11, 2008 4:11 pm
Posts: 55695
denisdman wrote:
Let’s use the software for the Arlington Outing.....

Image

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."


Frank Coztansa wrote:
I have MANY years of experience in trying to appreciate steaming piles of dogshit.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 1:37 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:46 pm
Posts: 9893
pizza_Place: Q's Hillside
Cool. I didn't mean post position specifically, just used it as an example of what you may have statistically evaluated in the past.

$1/card is easy. When I go to Keeneland a couple of times a year I end up paying $7 for the DRF.

_________________
“Build a man a fire and he’s warm for a day. But set a man on fire and he’s warm for the rest of his life."


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 2:01 pm 
Offline
Site Admin
User avatar

Joined: Sun Apr 04, 2010 10:00 am
Posts: 76575
Location: Chicago Heights
pizza_Place: Aurelio's
Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
Cool. I didn't mean post position specifically, just used it as an example of what you may have statistically evaluated in the past.

$1/card is easy. When I go to Keeneland a couple of times a year I end up paying $7 for the DRF.


DRF is 19th Century technology. I don't know any serious players who use just that. The laptop ban for the Belmont is a disaster.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 2:41 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:46 pm
Posts: 9893
pizza_Place: Q's Hillside
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
Cool. I didn't mean post position specifically, just used it as an example of what you may have statistically evaluated in the past.

$1/card is easy. When I go to Keeneland a couple of times a year I end up paying $7 for the DRF.


DRF is 19th Century technology. I don't know any serious players who use just that. The laptop ban for the Belmont is a disaster.

True, but when I go to the track just twice a year these days, i'd rather not just bet the horse with the funniest name. And carrying a laptop around the general admission part of Keeneland is rather shitty.

_________________
“Build a man a fire and he’s warm for a day. But set a man on fire and he’s warm for the rest of his life."


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 3:32 pm 
Offline
Site Admin
User avatar

Joined: Sun Apr 04, 2010 10:00 am
Posts: 76575
Location: Chicago Heights
pizza_Place: Aurelio's
Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
Cool. I didn't mean post position specifically, just used it as an example of what you may have statistically evaluated in the past.

$1/card is easy. When I go to Keeneland a couple of times a year I end up paying $7 for the DRF.


DRF is 19th Century technology. I don't know any serious players who use just that. The laptop ban for the Belmont is a disaster.

True, but when I go to the track just twice a year these days, i'd rather not just bet the horse with the funniest name. And carrying a laptop around the general admission part of Keeneland is rather shitty.


Yeah, and you can't smack a laptop against your hand during the stretch drive.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 28, 2018 4:07 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:42 am
Posts: 4656
pizza_Place: Home Run Inn
3 out of 7 winners at Churchill today in non-maiden races---the 1st, 5th and 10th (Salsa's Return, First Premio and Cove Blue)

71% ROI on $14 worth of wagering for $10 profit.

Happy Memorial Day!


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 28 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group