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 Post subject: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2018 11:19 am 
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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2018 12:25 pm 
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Will you teach me how to play the ponies, Walt?

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2018 1:57 pm 
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Furious Styles wrote:
Will you teach me how to play the ponies, Walt?

Will do....do you have TVG Channel? If you do start watching some races!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 5:36 pm 
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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:24 am 
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Free Drop Billy just had a bullet last-prep work with splits of :11.60, :23, :34.40, and :46.80 and 59:20 before galloping out six furlongs in 1:12.80. Could be the hot horse in the race. Other than his clunker performance in the Derby, which I would throw out for the off track (the first time he had run in the mud) Free Drop Billy's results have been solid with money finishes in most of his graded stakes races, with the highlight being his win in the G1 Breeders Futurity, when Bravazo came in second. I have liked this horse in the past leading into the Gotham and could see him finishing strong in this race. He's had extra time off, not having run in the Preakness, and comes into this one fresh.


http://www.brisnet.com/content/2018/06/ ... y-gallops/


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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:02 am 
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Never fails, Rube likes a horse that has NO CHANCE. :lol: :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:05 am 
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spmack wrote:
Never fails, Rube likes a horse that has NO CHANCE. :lol: :lol:


Bravazo had no chance in the Preakness, too, but somehow managed to come in second only by head.

Is the right strategy to bet against Justify at short odds or go with him? In this race, I'd like to bet against him on the win side. Fresh Free Drop Billy looks primed to outperform, which is what you're looking for as a handicapper. Sentimentally, I like Romans and in fact had Keen Ice in my tri and super-fecta wagers to win in the 2015 Belmont with American Pharoah and Frosted. Wouldn't mind seeing a repeat with Free Drop Billy surprising.


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:15 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:13 am 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
Blended Citizen wins the Peter Pan! That's my horse in the Belmont.


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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:16 am 
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W_Z wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Blended Citizen wins the Peter Pan! That's my horse in the Belmont.


If you read my first message, I said Free Drop Billy could be the hot horse. I'm allowed to change my mind. Blended Citizen is a good horse nonetheless.

Good grief that I would like any horses that are not Justify in this race. What's the fun of it having tunnel vision?


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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:21 am 
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I actually like Blended Citizen too.

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:22 am 
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I'll probably go this way: Superfectas- 4,8,9 with 1,3,4,7,8,9 with 1,3,4,7,8,9 with 1,3,4,7,8,9

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:32 am 
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To mention one more thing about Free Drop Billy, the interview in the link provided with Romans is insightful. He mentions that the horse did that blazing workout on his own, without being urged to go fast. Any sub 1 minute time for 5f is quick, and so was his 4f fraction under :47. If he is in that form without being pushed, I like his upside. Just some qualitative observations.

I think it's bad when trainers run their horses too hard in the lead-up to races, but when they run fast on their own, that's a workout that could spell win.


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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:36 am 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
To mention one more thing about Free Drop Billy, the interview in the link provided with Romans is insightful. He mentions that the horse did that blazing workout on his own, without being urged to go fast. Any sub 1 minute time for 5f is quick, and so was his 4f fraction under :47. If he is in that form without being pushed, I like his upside. Just some qualitative observations.

I think it's bad when trainers run their horses too hard in the lead-up to races, but when they run fast on their own, that's a workout that could spell win.



If I broke both your legs then saddled you up and sent you to Romans to train, he'd have Tammy Fox work you and then tell everyone how great you looked out there.

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:43 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I'll probably go this way: Superfectas- 4,8,9 with 1,3,4,7,8,9 with 1,3,4,7,8,9 with 1,3,4,7,8,9


My Super will be

1 10
1 10 8
1 3 7 8 10
1 3 4 7 8 10

Cost is $36 for a $1 Super, or $72 for a $2 Super.

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:44 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
To mention one more thing about Free Drop Billy, the interview in the link provided with Romans is insightful. He mentions that the horse did that blazing workout on his own, without being urged to go fast. Any sub 1 minute time for 5f is quick, and so was his 4f fraction under :47. If he is in that form without being pushed, I like his upside. Just some qualitative observations.

I think it's bad when trainers run their horses too hard in the lead-up to races, but when they run fast on their own, that's a workout that could spell win.



If I broke both your legs then saddled you up and sent you to Romans to train, he'd have Tammy Fox work you and then tell everyone how great you looked out there.


When does a trainer not talk up his horse? It's the Belmont Stakes, JORR.

His tone was objective in his comments. He said the horse flopped in the Derby, but has seen him bounce back. I think Romans is playing his cards more closely to the vest this time. That said, I like Romans as a trainer. He talks a good game and looks the part. He got Keen Ice to come in third in 2015, so he's no stranger to competing in this race.


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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:53 am 
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Good luck to you boys with the Belmont. Me, I'll be loading up on Bee Jersey in the Met Mile.

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:56 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Good luck to you boys with the Belmont. Me, I'll be loading up on Bee Jersey in the Met Mile.

I just texted someone with the same bet.

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:02 pm 
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Like Mind Your Biscuits.....horses for courses …..FYI Jersey Bee career earnings the lowest of the bunch :(

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:04 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Like Mind Your Biscuits.....horses for courses …..FYI Jersey Bee career earnings the lowest of the bunch :(



He has a distinct pace advantage in there though.

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:08 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Like Mind Your Biscuits.....horses for courses …..FYI Jersey Bee career earnings the lowest of the bunch :(



He has a distinct pace advantage in there though.

not denying that

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:03 am 
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Andy Beyer likes Bee Jersey as well.

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:16 am 
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i've read a few posts since looking up the met and i see some love for bee jersey as well. that could fuck his odds up though.


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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:33 am 
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W_Z wrote:
i've read a few posts since looking up the met and i see some love for bee jersey as well. that could fuck his odds up though.

He wasn't gonna be 5/1 anyway.

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:50 am 
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spmack wrote:
W_Z wrote:
i've read a few posts since looking up the met and i see some love for bee jersey as well. that could fuck his odds up though.

He wasn't gonna be 5/1 anyway.



What do you think he'll be? That's not a cupcake field. Bolt D'Oro is a serious horse and I don't think McCraken has ever lost at a mile. Not to mention MYB and LL if he goes. And as Walt pointed out, he's the least accomplished horse in the field. I think 5/1 is about right.

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:14 am 
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Looks like a regression in speed figures for Justify, while the other horses have maintained. That makes the race a lot closer.

He'll probably be overbet, but Justify is no better than a 2-1 favorite in this spot. Bravazo, Hofburg and Blended Citizen are the main threats.

I would still take Free Drop Billy on a flier.


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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:04 am 
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any big plays today?


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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:06 am 
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Belmont 8th: Whitmore
Belmont 10th: Canessar
Santa Anita 6th: Law Abidin Citizen

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:31 am 
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JORR: I'm thinking Bee Jersey gets bet down to a high 7/2, a smidge under 4/1 ($9.60 or 9.80 to win)

W_Z: I like (3) Imperial Game in Race 8 True North Stakes. Not gonna bore or confuse you with all the Dignified Rube stats- simply put - the horse will go to the front of the race and will not get caught.

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:43 am 
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spmack wrote:
JORR: I'm thinking Bee Jersey gets bet down to a high 7/2, a smidge under 4/1 ($9.60 or 9.80 to win)


I think I'd take that. I'd have to see what everyone else is at. If Bolt D'Oro is double digits I'd definitely consider going that way.

spmack wrote:
W_Z: I like (3) Imperial Game in Race 8 True North Stakes. Not gonna bore or confuse you with all the Dignified Rube stats- simply put - the horse will go to the front of the race and will not get caught.



That's a logical thought, but I think Recruiting Ready is going to be all over him. It will help him if Limousine Liberal goes in the other race. I'm looking for a bit of a pace meltdown in there to set up Whitmore at a nice price.

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 Post subject: Re: 4th @ Belmont
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:20 pm 
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well Zach I looked over the True North and came up with Joking.....seeing that closers have won at Belmont...so he hasn't run in a year what an excuse I have :lol: closes fastest

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