had the 4 and the 2 there (not the 5)...2 just ran out of gas...$1 Exacta paid over a grand
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| Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=120944 |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Possibly the end of racing for now, should be a good card. As an enthusiast of the equine endeavors, I am so happy we got through this without any big catastrophes. My breakdown of Saturday's card is coming. It will be lengthy. As the man said "sue me me if I play too long." Got a lot of time on my hands. Spoiler alert: the pace may not set up well for the favorite. |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
If Tiz the Law can maintain his recent form, the winner is a foregone conclusion. I have a good feeling about #13 Rogue Element as a long-shot. Showed vast improvement in his last race, though would have to improve considerably again to be competitive in this G1. The horse has decent breeding as a Honor Code colt and Romans has been hot recently with the Mr. Freeze win in the GP mile (Dennis' Moment is another story). He previously had a 2nd place finisher in the Florida Derby with Shakleford. I'd like to see a surprise in this race, like Bodexpress last year, but it will be tough to beat Tiz the Law, as Ete Indien found out in the Holy Bull. Maybe there's something with Shivaree, who has some back class but has more of a sprinter profile. Indpendence Hall or As Seen On TV don't seem good enough. Ajaaweed is too slow. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
1st race double -all with Overdeliver Frank C owns dangerous...note the owner for Derby pick |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:39 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Terrific card with great riders and trainers R12 Pan American-Turf route going 1 ½ miles…9-Zulu Alpha is just a beast and is going for his 3rd straight Graded stakes turf win. However he will be carrying a bit more weight than everyone else, and this is the distance where that starts to matter, and the ml of 3/5 may be too small to venture…the1-Channel Cat is 2 for 4 at this distance and although hasn’t raced for 2 months has been tearing it up in the mornings (a little surprising for a Pletcher trained horse)…Zulu’s stablemate 2-Bemmas Boy is worth watching after having a great start last year at Keeneland. 3-Spooky Channel also is carrying more weight but is 1/1 at this marathon distance…Clement’s 10-Focus Group won this race last year and will be there in the end as well I believe. 9-2-1-10 R13 Appleton…found this difficult to handicap the 12-El Tormenta is 9/2 ml but doesn’t appear to have the speed but does draw Leparoux and is very good at this distance. I prefer others however…Pletcher’s 10-Sombeyay won the Canadian Turf, which was an odd race and many here participated in…I’m really intrigued by 8-Dr Edgar because of his ability to perhaps control the front end by being one of the few speed horses, and his ability to close…at 20/1 would be quite the price…3-March to The Arch is a very good closer who is in very good form…Mott’s 4-Ballagh Rocks fits well here as does the 7-Social Paranoia, 2-Hembree, the 1-English Bee…very, very difficult to sort this one out… 8-3-7-10-12-2-1 R14 Florida Derby 7-Tiz the law is a phenomenal horse out of the very hot sire Constitution. Very deserving of his m/l of 6/5 and will drop below that. However, I think he can be beat, and the two most likely candidates are both sons of Constitution as well..the 9-Independence Hall was 2nd in the Sam Davis, has the speed and gets Rosario in the irons. But the horse that I think will be in the winner’s circle is the 5-Gouverneur Morris…at 8/1 he would be a terrific price (but don’t expect that). Pletcher has won this 4 of the last 5 times and has him poised for today…should press behind Tiz the Law and make one move down the stretch…the 11-Ete Indian won in the exact same fashion last out in the Fountain of Youth, but going wire to wire, from the outside, will be a daunting task again today. 5-9-7-12 |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: 1st race double -all with Overdeliver Frank C owns dangerous...note the owner for Derby pick Had Devious Charm to place. Good start. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Great use of the ALL Ball...$41...get it home Walt |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
What is your favorite website to bet thru? |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:07 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Hawg Ass wrote: What is your favorite website to bet thru? I'm a Twin Spires guy but DRF is running a $250 match promo. |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Hawg Ass wrote: What is your favorite website to bet thru? I'm a Twin Spires guy but DRF is running a $250 match promo. Thanks JORR |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
In the 3rd, you have a UAE Derby winner in Plus Que Parfait at 15-1 and his numbers actually stack up relatively good on turf with one start, when he came in a respectable 6th by 3 lengths in the G1 Belmont Derby three back. OTE's favorite! * Now I see, the horse is out of form, but his recent works are ok. Maybe worth a place or show. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
6TH race 6-8 exacta box |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: 6TH race 6-8 exacta box Are these all Tampa? |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
had the 4 and the 2 there (not the 5)...2 just ran out of gas...$1 Exacta paid over a grand
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Crazy price on Identifier and I'm kicking myself for missing the opportunity of a lifetime. |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Hawg Ass wrote: Walt Williams Neck wrote: 6TH race 6-8 exacta box Are these all Tampa? Nevermind Walt, I am an idiot. |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Rube, if you like anything in these races, let me know please. I am sitting here watching and gambling. |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: had the 4 and the 2 there (not the 5)...2 just ran out of gas...$1 Exacta paid over a grand That was wild, $2 Super was over 61K 
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
I'm focused on Gulfstream and the undercard for the Florida Derby. TV Coverage is currently on FS1. It will eventually also be covered (I believe) by NBCSports will be showing TVG coverage of the event as well. Additionally the on air talent is going out of their way acknowledging that many viewers are new to the sport. |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: I'm focused on Gulfstream and the undercard for the Florida Derby. TV Coverage is currently on FS1. It will eventually also be covered (I believe) by NBCSports will be showing TVG coverage of the event as well. Additionally the on air talent is going out of their way acknowledging that many viewers are new to the sport. You are correct, i just looked over to NBC Sports. |
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| Author: | Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Next Race lotta speed so I'm going with a couple ground saving closers 1/2 exacta box...better ca$h something or I'll need an advance on my stimulus check |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Clement has already won two here today...using both his horses as well as the 7-Walk in Marekesh off a sneaky good run at Tampa's Fair oaks last month...Ex 7 8 9/1 5 7 8 9 11 |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
7th Race: I rarely box exactas at all, let alone three horses, but these prices are right. $10 EX Box 1-5-11 = $60 He's my ticket for the Rainbow forceout: 2,12,13/6/4,5,7,9/1,3,9/1,3,4/1,7,9,12 = $86.40 |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Walt Williams Neck wrote: Next Race lotta speed so I'm going with a couple ground saving closers 1/2 exacta box...better ca$h something or I'll need an advance on my stimulus check Go 1 and 2!!!! |
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| Author: | Dignified Rube [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Not sure about Vekoma in the 8th. Could be fools gold coming off the long layoff. I'll go with #1 Bourbon Calling and #7 Jackson. |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: 7th Race: I rarely box exactas at all, let alone three horses, but these prices are right. $10 EX Box 1-5-11 = $60 He's my ticket for the Rainbow forceout: 2,12,13/6/4,5,7,9/1,3,9/1,3,4/1,7,9,12 = $86.40 Wow! Huge hit JORR. nicely done |
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| Author: | OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Couple of price horses to consider over the next few at Gulfstream R8…10-He Hate me…love the jockey switch of Saez, Barn is hot (8-1)…7-Jackson troubled trip with huge speed numbers last out right here (5-1) R9…12-Valedictorian…love this horse dropping off a lethargic G3 race, gets a great jock, poised and ready (8-1)…4-Smart Shot…if the pace gets hot this girl can close (20-1) R10…8-Beau Belle and 1-Beale Street R11-..Swiss Skydiver coming off some salty groups at Fairgrounds (10-1)…1-Inveterate short 1st turn should aid the horse on the rail, broke her maiden in a troubled trip last out, just really fond of the sons and daughters of Palace Malice |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Thanks Gents!!!! |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
OscarTangoEcho wrote: Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: 7th Race: I rarely box exactas at all, let alone three horses, but these prices are right. $10 EX Box 1-5-11 = $60 He's my ticket for the Rainbow forceout: 2,12,13/6/4,5,7,9/1,3,9/1,3,4/1,7,9,12 = $86.40 Wow! Huge hit JORR. nicely done +1 |
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| Author: | Hawg Ass [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Ok, what is the Rainbow forceout? Sorry for all of the questions. |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Florida Derby-Gulfstream (G1) |
Hawg Ass wrote: Ok, what is the Rainbow forceout? Sorry for all of the questions. It'a a 20 cent bet that is normally a jackpot. That means the only way the entire amount is paid out is if there is a single discrete winner. Otherwise half is paid out to the holders of the winning tickets and the other half is rolled to the next day. Today there is a mandatory payout, no rollover. So if you have never bet it before you have the benefit of having the pool seeded with a bunch of square money. There will be a very low effective takeout or possibly a positive expected value. |
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