The Wise Guy Horse is Art Collector....but you haven't heard shit until the BDH's of the board have their say

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Beat, probably not...make money off of...yes, in a superfecta...

Also, NY Traffic


As always, plenty of losing tickets to make money off of...

Haven't been around much lately, I bet this Kentucky Derby is just the talk of the board

I am against Tiz The Law. It seems kind of silly to say after his win in the Travers, but I honestly believe that he is distance challenged. He looks like a miler to me. Because of his ownership I think the target race and focus was the Travers rather than this Saturday's race. Now, maybe I'm wrong and he's a real horse of a lifetime (as opposed to a Baffert "horse of a lifetime") but If I'm right, I'm gonna get paid.

I think there's a horse in here that should be the short priced favorite but it isn't Tiz The Law. Honor A.P. looks like he was born to win the Kentucky Derby.

I'll be using a couple longshots underneath- Max Player and Enforceable for sure.

And let's get this Churchill meet started right. I like Faith and Honor in today's fifth race.

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Communists are just people who are terrible at capitalism.

Art Collector is out.

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Communists are just people who are terrible at capitalism.

I swear to God you guys are speaking illuminati or something. You always gotta know at least one person who knows a thing or two about a horse

Speaking of secret conspiracy stuff, here's one mix i did last week that youtube wouldn't let me put on there cuz the rock track has a copyright in Japan or something. Its called "escape from San francisco" its pretty damn good and #LittleKnownFact emessiah mixes are just as weaponized as horse racing talk. Seriously I know a thing or 37 about one horse and he's a hell of a horse named Larry.

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Out of curiosity, do you like her with anyone else?

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I've got to look at the race a little more now that it's been drawn, but I think Honor A.P. has the best chance to win. I'll probably try to get Tiz The Law out of the exacta or maybe even the tri. I like Enforceable to hit the ticket. Max Player and Attachment Rate will also be on my tickets. Probably NY Traffic too.

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Communists are just people who are terrible at capitalism.

Sorry, I was meaning the race of Faith and Honor. But thanks

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Yeah, that one didn't go so well. I was pretty happy halfway through the race. That Cox firster was stronger than I expected.

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Communists are just people who are terrible at capitalism.

I agree, I kept waiting for her to go and she did, backwards.

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Gamine dead lame this morning. A likely scratch out of the Oaks. Maybe Bobby Bute can put her back together with the heavy cola. We'll see. If she goes, she won't be on any of my tickets.

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Communists are just people who are terrible at capitalism.

Like anything today JORR?

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In the 8th at Indiana Grand it looks like there's the potential for a real pace meltdown. That puts the 2, 6, and 7 in play at nice prices. I think the 7, Expect Indy is particularly interesting as her last seemed like a prep for today and the horse won this race last year.

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Communists are just people who are terrible at capitalism.

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Hawg, you didn’t ask my opinion. Will that stop me? Of course not.

Actually Churchill is muddy and Saratoga is sloppy so I would tread lightly on those surfaces, so to speak. But I hit a really nice exacta to start ($182) so I may be more drawn in.

I do like the in the 6th at Saratoga the 4-Doll got her first win at Aqueduct in the slop…and in the 9th I like the 1-Blame the Booze who broken his maiden at first asking in the slop and will get in front today with Saez

At Churchill which seems like it is drying out and may not get much more rain, I like the 11-Beyond Gone in Race 5…he is dropping down 2 classes and a better group than this in the mud at Gulfstream

Race 7 Both entrants on the 1-Lady of Luxury/Perfect Happiness have both had success on off tracks, and you get two fro the price of one (although not gonna be 7/2)..and although there’s not much info to go on the last race 10, I’m looking at both the 5-Fast Cash (trained by Catalano) and the 6- Belfast Boy (out of Bayern) both have pedigrees that fit

Good Luck.

Hey, are we staying here in this thread for the Derby?

Gracias sir, I always appreciate information. I like to mess around with it while I am sitting here working.

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My sister says she likes King Guillermo. She's been scouting the horses by watching the videos, lol.

The Tampa Bay Derby winner and Arkansas runner-up hasn't raced since May. He had a good work on 8/22, running 5f in 0:58.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZyfe9gl-HI

So close in the 8th at Churchill today. I had 1-3 and 3-5 ex. boxes. Of course, it went 1-5, with the 1 at 9-1. $2 ex. paid $118, ouch.

Bleeping bad beat.

Great call at Indiana JORR...pace breakdown like you said, I cashed a nice WP ticket off your advice, thanks. All my picks (after a couple nice exactas early) were all overbet and running 2nd...

back at it tomorrow, with some unsolicited Derby thoughts

I forgot to play this race.

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Well then JORR is going to have to hand us another $36 winner today then.

I agree!!!

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That's a tall order. You guys are tough!

In the second at Woodbine I like 5 Capture the Moment a little. Also, it's coming up quick here, but I put a little wager on Silver Connection at Gulfstream.

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Curious what you guys think about the pace. With the new gate and the space in the first stall, I don’t think anyone will be forced into doing something they don’t normally do, and I’m seeing little speed in front, causing a lot of traffic in a tight group in the 1st two flights…closers will be challenged due to the lack of pace.

I’m looking to build a superfecta ticket, keying the 17–Tiz The Law and either the 8-South Bend or the 15-NY Traffic…the following are the main horses I am using underneath


2-Max Player Newly acquired by Asmussen…think this guy is going to stick around to the end. Working well at CD in the morning...new gate would make that 3 post less of a problem…he won’t need early speed to get off of the new gate…but doubtful the pace will be fast enough to set up for his closing style. Has run ITM at this distance, few can say that here.


6-King Guillermo (scratch?) has done nothing wrong in his short career…has been creating a bit of a buzz because of his am workouts (which may indicate a growth of ability in his third year), but I think there’s more to him then just that…hasn’t beaten anyone, and beaten by two high quality horses…part of the early speed…don’t think his a win contender but definitely underneath…Camacho is a fine jock, glad he gets a chance on the big stage…distance an issue, particularly for a speed horse

8-South Bend another horse that will be untouched by the public, but his closing style will serve him well as there will be many tired horses at the end of this race…ran well against Tiz the Law and Max Player, has an impressive resume in Graded Stakes races, facing some tough hombres…should get a good trip with Gaffalione aboard…sneaky good

15-NY Traffic look, I get he’s a hard sell and a bit of 2nd-itis, but he’s been facing very tough competition and responding, and I firmly believe he’ll do the same on Saturday…his front running position, in what I believe will be a relatively slow pace, will get him into the super (top 4 finishers)…also Paco Lopez is an underrated jock

16-Honor AP fits on speed and distance, will include but not in love with

17-Tiz The Law…I’ve bet against Am Phar and Chrome,, but not this horse…he’s beautiful, great pedigree, fast, tough…he may not come in 1st, but I’d be hard pressed to identify the horse that will beat him

18-Authentic might be the true speed of the race, stuck outside of so many horses will be tough, but ultimately may be better than most here, could work his way to the top 5

17-8-15-2-6

I can't recall there being a bigger favorite in the Kentucky Derby than Tiz the Law is this year at 3-5 on the M/L.

I've run the numbers and he is a favorite at only 2-1 fair value with about a 32% win probability, but 50% according to final speed in simulation.

What sticks out to me about him is that he coming into the Derby on only one month's rest. That said, and given the data and his far outside post, he's certainly vulnerable in this one.

If any horse has a chance to beat Tiz the Law, I think it's NY Traffic based on how he closed against Authentic in the Haskell. He did nicely in that one off the two month layoff and that's about what he has this time around. I like his progression to go from a 95 fig. in the Matt Winn two months earlier to the 107 in the Haskell. He's basically a freak-of-nature, having relatively no pedigree to speak of. If JORR is right about Tiz the Law being a miler, I think this is the horse to be on, not Authentic.

So the Hawk's pick to click for me in the Derby is NY Traffic as hopefully a 15-1 upset.

King Guillermo is out after spiking a fever yesterday. Was announced by the trainer in a tweet today. Too bad.

Rube is a smart man

Gracias. Here's a nice interview with the owner, John Fanelli, from yesterday. He mentions the "progression" I was talking about.

The guy is very well spoken and seems very smart. I like him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6-CttfMv80

I am against Gamine and Swiss Skydiver. I hope they knock each other's brains out on the front. I think Gamine has serious distance limitations and she supposedly jogged lame earlier this week, but it's Baffert so those things probably don't matter. I wasn't thrilled with the way Swiss Skydiver was going at the end in the Alabama. We'll see. I'm going to try to get live to Derby Doubles with Donna Veloce and Speech, maybe a little with Shedaresthedevil.

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Good luck to all, and may you have plenty of winners!!!!!

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