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PostPosted: Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:54 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Saturday at Fairgrounds in New Orleans has a great card lined up for the Louisiana Derby Day. The trail has been a bit boring this year, but this is a race that will feature several that will be appearing in the Kentucky Derby, most notably Cox’s 6-Mandaloun who has raced but 4 times and won 3 of them, getting faster in each…one of my personal favorites in this run has been the 4-Proxy who is absolutely bred to get these distances, and has showed a penchant for battling tough down the stretch…I think his trainer Mike Stidham is an underrated, and the additions of blinkers could help this guy get the job done over his rivals, especially since they are running farther as a group and his breeding suggests he’ll like it……the 3-Run Classic has only 2 races in his career but trainer Calhoun picks his spots well winning 22% in Graded Stakes company…if the 7-Midnight Bourbon holds at 5/1 he would be a great value, hard working horse that fits in with the rest here…he’ll be a big part of the early speed….I think the pace will be brisk and I’m going to go with the upset win of the 3 closing on increasingly fast fractions

3-6-4-7

(evidently I was reading the form upside down)

Race 13 The Oaks...I really think that the combination of a bad trip last out and a huge, I mean huge, rider upgrade (not good>HOF) and the odds, sets the 3-Souper Sensational apart at a sensational price. (3rd $4.20)


oh well


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 20, 2021 6:06 pm 
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Tough day. Thank God for Chess Chief.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:45 am 
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Florida Derby Gulfstream…This race has been a harbinger for KD results…24 winners of this race have gone on to win the KD...last 5 years winners here finished in the money at Churchill the 1st weekend in May…last year winner Tiz the Law finished 2nd…7-Greatest Honour knocked them down in Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth…McGaughey is old school and brings them around slooooowly, but it might work here…did the same thing here with Orb about 8 years ago…he should get enough pace to set him up down the stretch…Baffert enters 10–Spielberg and with his leading contender Life Is Good out of the chase, lord knows what he’ll be running on…5–Known Agenda and Todd Pletcher should be more successful, and yet he hasn’t been, although today might be different…I kinda like the 8-Soup and Sandwich or 11-Papetu to finish off the trifecta…the last two years have featured horses that paid 80-1 and 72-1 in the money, making for a very nice payout…Good luck gentlemen

7-8-10-5-11


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:59 am 
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I'm going to be building my multis around Moon Over Miami in the 10th. And I'll be leaning on Collaborate and Known Agenda in the Florida Derby.

I'm really interested in 7) I Get It in the 3rd if I can get the morning line or better:

Image
Image

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 27, 2021 5:23 pm 
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WWN money the 9 Collaborate in order to be the horse you gotta beat the horse.JORR I'm still trying to understand Beyer figures ...Good Luck

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:57 am 
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Today is the final big push for the Kentucky Derby...

Santa Anita Derby…Medina Spirit gets a nice trip from the outside cozy draw and with no pace apparent should set up nicely for him. Dream Shake was 3rd behind Mediana Spirit and has been training lights out in the am.

7-3-2-9

The Bluegrass at Keeneland should be more of a match race between the 4-Essential Quality (who doesn’t need the points awarded to the winner to get into the KD) and the 3-Highly Motivated (who does). Todd Pletcher is finally warming up and his 2-Untreated could provide value underneath.

3-4-2

Haven’t spent a great deal of time looking at the Wood Memorial, but I do like the back story of the 1-Brooklyn Strong, whose coming off an illness and has won on this track going two turns. Horse was purchased for 5 grand and has been earning about 50K per race.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:54 am 
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I think I may take a crack with Untreated in the Bluegrass. Today isn't too important for Essential Quality.

I think Medina Spirit is soft at SA, but I think Baffert horses are soft a lot of times and end up throwing tickets on the ground. :lol: Using 8, 9, and 10 in the PK-6 forceout.

The Remsen was quite a race for Brooklyn Strong. I like him and Weyburn the best in there.

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 03, 2021 12:31 pm 
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I'm sticking with Crowded Trade in the Wood.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:30 pm 
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Weyburn in the Wood ...early enough for Rube

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


Last edited by Walt Williams Neck on Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:03 pm 
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Some pretty bad rides in the Wood :roll:


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:23 pm 
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...and I am completely onboard with the political numbers dude breaking down KD entries.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:25 am 
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I don't know if it's possible to beat Baffert, but the Sadler horse looks like the real deal.

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:28 am 
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Final chance to gain some points needed to get to the Derby...at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby Concert Tour should have his way with the short field, unless Caddo River (who finished 2nd to Concert Tour last out) decides to take it to him early setting it up for Baffert's 2nd horse Hozier in the field of six. Don't see it happening though.

Derby points also on the line at Keeneland in The Lexington...I'm personally a fan of Proxy and based on his pedigree for the distance of the KD, believe that he can wedge his way into the Trifecta and Superfecta of that race and bring back a huge payout...he'll have his work cut out for him today though with a pace that doesn't set up for his style, and some stiff competition from Swiftsure and Starrinmydreams and a really sharp looking Bezos.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:17 am 
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Not too much value in any of the races at Oaklawn today. Just #1 Long Range Toddy in the 9th and he's borderline. Getting a 200% premium to 20-1 M/L vs. 10% winning percentage, field adjusted.

You're better off at Hawthorne, Tampa or Aqueduct. I'm seeing value at HAW in the 2nd through 6th races.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:59 am 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Final chance to gain some points needed to get to the Derby...at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby Concert Tour should have his way with the short field, unless Caddo River (who finished 2nd to Concert Tour last out) decides to take it to him early setting it up for Baffert's 2nd horse Hozier in the field of six. Don't see it happening though.

Derby points also on the line at Keeneland in The Lexington...I'm personally a fan of Proxy and based on his pedigree for the distance of the KD, believe that he can wedge his way into the Trifecta and Superfecta of that race and bring back a huge payout...he'll have his work cut out for him today though with a pace that doesn't set up for his style, and some stiff competition from Swiftsure and Starrinmydreams and a really sharp looking Bezos.



Supposedly Cox was livid that Geroux let the Baffert horse go last time out and he's under orders not to give up the lead. We'll see if the horse is cooperative. They could really thrown down if that's the case.

I'm a little interested in the Baltas horse in the Lexington, but he's being asked to do a lot of stuff he hasn't done before, i.e. distance, take on winners.

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:49 am 
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Mama needs a new pair of shoes.

Can you guys each send me a guaranteed winner for today?

Thanks in advance.

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:26 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
Mama needs a new pair of shoes.

Can you guys each send me a guaranteed winner for today?

Thanks in advance.



Come on, man. There are no guaranteed winners in this game! But if I had to bet one horse today at what I expect to be good value, I'd go with the 12 horse in the 5th race at Keeneland- Perfect Painting.

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:56 pm 
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Gambling is immoral.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:51 pm 
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Bob Baffert is an arch criminal. I just have to laugh. This thing goes 21-45-1:09 and he doesn't even look like he raced pulling into the Winner's Circle. He can't blow out a match. It's a fucking joke.

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:36 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bob Baffert is an arch criminal. I just have to laugh. This thing goes 21-45-1:09 and he doesn't even look like he raced pulling into the Winner's Circle. He can't blow out a match. It's a fucking joke.



YOU WANNA KNOW WHAT'S CRIMINAL, THAT FUCKING NAG YOU GAVE ME IN THE 5TH AT KEENELAND TODAY.

SON OF A BITCH IS STILL RUNNING!!!!!!!!!!

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:41 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Bob Baffert is an arch criminal. I just have to laugh. This thing goes 21-45-1:09 and he doesn't even look like he raced pulling into the Winner's Circle. He can't blow out a match. It's a fucking joke.



YOU WANNA KNOW WHAT'S CRIMINAL, THAT FUCKING NAG YOU GAVE ME IN THE 5TH AT KEENELAND TODAY.

SON OF A patriot IS STILL RUNNING!!!!!!!!!!



It's a tough game.

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:17 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Derby points also on the line at Keeneland in The Lexington...I'm personally a fan of Proxy and based on his pedigree for the distance of the KD, believe that he can wedge his way into the Trifecta and Superfecta of that race and bring back a huge payout...he'll have his work cut out for him today though with a pace that doesn't set up for his style, and some stiff competition from Swiftsure and Starrinmydreams and a really sharp looking Bezos.


Proxy cold on the board early...Starinmydreams a huge value right now...Bezos getting a lot of attention


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:30 pm 
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Again, the 10-Starinmydreams is 2/2 this year and has won in the slop and a $2 bet for show (3rd) yields $5


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:40 pm 
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The 2 points Proxy picked up probably won't be enough, too bad...Starinmydreams (3rd) paid $5.80 for a $2 wager...


any thoughts on the late Pick 4 at Oaklawn????


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:06 am 
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I don't like to redboard but the Lexington turned out to be a really good race for me. I thought the race was wide open and I couldn't pass up 18/1 on a horse that was so experienced at the distance.

Image

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:53 am 
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That's a good day at the office, nice work.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:20 pm 
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I'm gonna go out on a limb 20 days ahead without even knowing if he's gonna be entered and say Starrininmydreams will cakewalk the Pat Day Mile.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:58 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I don't like to redboard but the Lexington turned out to be a really good race for me. I thought the race was wide open and I couldn't pass up 18/1 on a horse that was so experienced at the distance.

Image


Really nice work.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:29 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I don't like to redboard but the Lexington turned out to be a really good race for me. I thought the race was wide open and I couldn't pass up 18/1 on a horse that was so experienced at the distance.

Image


I don't like to redboard but ....Image

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:41 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:

I don't like to redboard but ....Image


:lol: :lol:

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