Del Mar Friday, November 5th


early thoughts, to be continued...

Race 6 Juvenile Turf Sprint

Hasn’t been run a lot, just the last 3 years, so not much data…no Euro’s have won, only two 3rd place finishes in 15 tries…that’s not good and I’m thinking that trend will continue…

trainer Wesley Ward has 3 horses, all of them legit…2-Kaufymaker, a filly, might end up being the best value of the trio…

the winner of this race has gone wire to wire in all three years, which leads me to two horses that battled it out in a stakes race last month…Peter Millers the 10-Time To Party and the 9-One Timer trained by (former) Arlington trainer Larry Rivelli…both have the early speed necessary to win this…2 year old gelded colt One Timer broke his maiden locally at Arlington in June, won all 3 of his races and has been working out very nicely in the mornings out west…the 8-Averly Jane will probably take the most money, and is a logical choice…just not sure of price


Race 7 Juvenile Fillies

The 6-Echo Zulu will get hammered at the window (her sire Gunrunner couldn’t be hotter and won the Classic in 2017)…she won The Frizette and 13 of the winners of that race have gone on to win this BC event. And although the 5-Jujus’s Map will put up a fight, I don’t think she’ll win…no wager within the race…those two in P4’s and P5’s

the week gets better and better

Looking forward to this weekend and the races.

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2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

Even though it frequently dominates me I LOVE the Breeder's Cup!

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

Knicks Go and Letruska are favorites I will be against.

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Don't take it personally.

More Friday races...

Race 8 Juvenile Fillies Turf

The 5- Bubble Rock out of More Than Ready, bred to run farther should relish the stretch out…Cox/Irad connections don’t hurt…Cox’s other runner 4-Turnerloose will improve off the G2 2nd last out…Euros struggle continue here…somewhat interesting stat in that two prep races-The Ms. Grillo from Belmont (has gone on to win this race 5 times) and the Jessamine at Keeneland have proven to be key races…the 8-Sail by won the Ms. Grillo and would be a huge upset as would the 14-California Angel who won the Jessamin…the 2-Cairo Memories has done nothing wrong, dominating both of her races, very strong contender, should be among the favorites…Chad Brown has dominated this division...brings in two here, the 11-Haughty and the 7-Consumer Spending...I'm more impressed with how the latter looks right now…the 1, 9, both deserve a look as well, and here’s a bomb for you that will be on my ticket which is the 10-Helen’s Wheel…had to deal with traffic in the same race the 2 dominated, and with Rispoli aboard (21% winner on turf) think she will be an incredible value…fucking wide open in this leg

Here are a few I'm interested in tomorrow:

3rd Race: Rose Maddox. This is a serious animal. If you don't believe me pull up the video of her last race.

7th Race: If you're going to try to beat Echo Zulu, I think Tarabi is the horse.

8th Race: I think a European horse will win this race. Probably Malavath has the best chance but I'm going to be looking at the prices on her, Mise En Scene and Hello You.

Race 9: I will definitely be taking a shot against Jack Christopher. Maybe Pinehurst. I suspect he may be the best of the Bafferts and at a better price than Corniche.

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Don't take it personally.

Race 9 Juvenile

East Coast vs West Coast here…horses prepped (their last race) in California have won 9 of the 14 such BC races run out west…the 1-Jack Christopher blew everyone away on debut and went on to win his next race the G1 Champaign at Belmont….two turns and the pace of this race will leave much more of a challenge. Meanwhile the 12-Corniche was tearing it up out west, and he did it around two turns…those two will probably garner the most attention…a couple other to keep an eye on though….the 3-Oviatt Class finished 3rd against Corniche and galloped out better, certainly worth the 5x’s price you’ll get on the favorites…the 5-Double Thunder finished very well at Keeneland last out…the 9-Pinehurst is fast enough to run up front but how well can he rate? His pedigree says distance won’t be a problem

Race 10 Juvenile Turf

Here’s where the Euros can make some noise…I’ll step back realizing that, they are 9-5 all time in this division and you think I don’t know shit about American Thoroughbreds, well imagine my confusion with the Euros…I think the 6-Mackinnon is sitting on a big race…the 10 Portfolio Comp will have to work a trip from the outside but is capable…love the sire of Slipstream (More Than Ready) at a mile on the turf…4-Tiz the Bomb needs to finish better but still fits…the 13-Coinage fits although will have to work a trip

Against Echo Zulu here. Not only because of the price, but I'm not a fan of jockey changes because you think the newer jockey will be better. Santana rode EZ's first 3 races - all winners - but because Santana was in a crazy slump they switched out to Rosario. JuJu's Map for the win.

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Race 6
9, 8, 11

Race 7
5, 6, 4

Race 8
9, 12, 13

Race 9
10, 12, 8 (heavy favorite Jack Christopher out)


Race 10
2, 1, 14 (all Euro)


Pick4 (Races 7-10):

4-5
4-6-9-12-13
8-10-12
1-2-8-10-14
cost $75 for a .50 Pick4

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Damn, scratched

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2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

Here's a bomb in the next race to throw a few bucks on...the 10-Lagertha is keeping good company and will get a rare pace advantage in this 5f turf sprint...

also...regarding JORR's selection of Hello you...Jockey Velazquez is pounding out a $3.45 ROIO in Routes at Del Mar

Great job by the 10 jock there to take the horse out of third and drop her back to 6th down the stretch...brilliant...


small Win Place bets on the 10 Moose Mitchell and the 11-Slow Down Andy in the next


and then the actual Breeders Cup starts

trifecta 2 9 10/2 6 8 9 10/2 3 7 8 9 10 for $24.00

hit a little boom on the #12 in R5. good start i guess...

Rivelli-baird memory lane

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

And same outcome as often experienced at Arlington

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

small Win/Show on the 5 and the 4 (via JORR)

p4 5.6

That race was over when the 5 blew the break.

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Don't take it personally.

Echo Zulu (a cousin of mine ) is a damn fine horse

She sure is. Doin' it EZ!

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Don't take it personally.

Big winner on the exacta and super

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

putting a lot of my budget on this really wide open race...trifecta key box 10/1,2,4,5,6,7,9,11...$84
alive to 4,5,7,10,13 in the Pick4

Rooting for you!

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

19.00 to place and 12.00 to show. nice!

keying the 3 in a trifecta...the 12 is very good here, but not 8/5 good

out of the P4 and P5 but will be in full force tomorrow

Need to do better tomorrow...much better

last race trifecta key box 6 with 1,4,5,10,13, 14 for $45

Hope you guys did well.

Whoa, this is crazy with Race 10.

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

Looks like I got a $5 Exacta in the last race, today was a winner.

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

Nice!

see ya tomorrow