Action starts this week on the trail with two big races The Holy Bull and The Withers

The Holy Bull (Gulfstream Park) awards points based on finish towards the Derby at 10-4-2-1...the top 20 in points get their chance to run the first Saturday in May. Interesting to note that Bob Baffert's horses will not be running, so the distribution of points might be quite different then they have in recent years...this should be a very good race

1-Galt’s sister is the great filly Songbird…Bill Mott is aggressively placing this 3 year old…gets the rail and is 15/1 ml
2-Mo Dunegal won the Remson stakes against a good crowd at this 1 1/8 distance…formidable
4-Simplification for local trainer Sano who took Gunnevera down this road successfully…will be on the front end and the pace should be tepid, Castellano could take him wire-to-wire if he controls the front end
5-Cajun Magic...don’t sleep on this guy…5 starts never worse than 2nd nice jump in speed showing maturity last time out…any kind of further progression makes him live 8/1 m/l
6-Tiz the bomb fastest on paper yet I don’t trust
9-Giant Game is sitting on a giant race…others are in their first race back in a while but his training has been outstanding

4-2-5-9

In The Withers Stakes (by the way just google Bill Withers singing Lovely Day right now) at Aqueduct...

Absolutely against the 1 Constitutional lawyer after a race mate crapped the bed here on Thursday….looking elsewhere…the 5-Courvoisier won the Jerome but jock Ortiz hops over to ride Early Voting….Courvoisier is well bred but not sure of his new jock, still, very live…EARLY VOTING terrific pedigree by Gun Runner/Tiznow…Brown won last year’s Withers with Risk Taking. He has some speed in a race without much of it, could win by default…GILDED AGE (Bill Mott) right in the mix with a great pedigree for distance he’s probably running on best late of these, is turning into a very nice horse…keep an eye on GRANTHAM (Mike Maker) and ROCKET DAWG (Brad Cox) in his debut. There’s distance pedigree here to boot. Longshot Mr. Jefferson.

Seriously though, listen to Lovely Day by Bill Withers

Smarten Up is a double bet for me here. He should be sitting close enough as others bang it out on the front:



Strong race against the bias in the Jerome and he's just dying for more ground:

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEeaS6fuUoA

see

Looks like you hit the nail on the head, JORR.

I fired up the old model and Giant Game is the #1 selection with a 23% win probability. So about fairly priced at 7/2.

Then it's Simplification and Cajun Magic. Tiz the Bomb is 4th.

Interestingly, #2 Mo Donegal has a 55% win probability in LP according to the simulation. That's pretty dominant and will probably be the wise-guy choice as the M/L favorite at 5/2. He should run them all down unless Giant Game can get on the lead and go wire-to-wire. There's some value with Tiz the Bomb at 6-1 according to winning percentage adjusted for stakes. Fair value according to that metric is about 3-1.

You can't just go by the math in the Holy Bull, making it a lot tougher to handicap. A couple of these horses, like Tiz the Bomb and White Abbario, did not have good trips in their last races, but still finished strong. I was very impressed by Simplication. In fact, I think he's stronger than Giant Game and will be the pace setter. I don't think that he'll have trouble with the distance at all, because he was just coasting at the end in the Mucho Man. Mo Donegal benefitted from the slow pace in the Remsen, but will not get that slow pace today, so it's a question of whether he can keep up with the pace setters and still have enough to turn it on down the stretch. Although he ran on turf last out in the BC Juvenile Turf at Del Mar, I really liked Tiz the Bomb's tactical speed that he came from well off the pace from the rail and weaved through traffic in that large field to find running room down the center, when he turned on the afterburners to finish second. They wouldn't be running him in this race, unless they thought he could compete just as well on dirt. Tiz the Bomb has the class with the 2nd highest WP adjusted for stakes at 26.5%, only being Giant Game at 27.7%. On Jan. 15 he ran a bullet at GP at 0:46 over 4f and then breezed in the two works since then.

That all said, I think it's between OTE's Simplication and Tiz the Bomb. Third and fourth will go to Giant Game, Mo Donegal and possibly White Abbarrio. White Abbarrio to me is a wild card in this race, because of how he got caught behind the leaders in the Kentucky Jockey Club and still came up for third in that race at 1 1/16 mi. Had his momentum not been slowed by the traffic, he would have finished 1st or 2nd in that race. He had a very good work leading up to the Holy Bull with 0:47 over 4f. I can't speak to the strength of Cajun's Magic because of the long layoff.

Here are my thoughts on the Holy Bull:

This race isn't an imperative for Mo Donegal or Giant Game. These two are definitely Triple Crown type horses. I don't expect either of them to be on 100% go today. You can also save this post because I'm going to say Mo Donegal has a good chance to win the Belmont. Of course, a lot can happen between now and June, but if there were a Belmont future wager I'd put a few bucks on him.

Simplification is going to be on the lead. In today's racing, even a donkey on the lead is dangerous and this guy is no donkey. He's the favorite here on my line.

White Abarrio is probably going to end up being the bet for me. He should be sitting right behind Simplification. The Kentucky Juvenile Cup is a strong race almost every year and I don't think the 2021 version was an exception. Not to mention Saffie Joseph might be lighting them up better than Baffert. If I can get the morning line on this one, I'll get fat. Anything more is a bonus.

I think Tiz The Bomb and Galt are both turf horses. Naturally, when you have a three year old with the talent they do, there's the temptation to put them on the Derby trail. Galt in particular is an interesting horse. You'd need more imagination than I have to see him winning, but I expect him to be closing pretty good late. I think we'll see both of these horses back on the grass soon enough. Galt seems like the kind of horse who might have rolled through the old Arlington turf series for three year olds.

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Undercard at Gulfstream today...

Race 2-2-Savage Sailor Rivelli claimed this horse and is putting right back in it and he knows the poly horses (37% after 1st claim)
Win 2

Race 4- the two speed horses will leave the others behind in a bit of a match race the 1-Caribbean Gold (at a huge price) and the 6-Hardredcandy
Exacta Box 1 6

Race 9 7-War Stopper…Pletcher has been red hot, gets Irad Ortiz to ride and has been training lights out (3 straight bullets) and is 6-1 on the m/l

Race 10 I like the new face the 4-Ambitieuse, daughter of Medaglia d’Oro who will be overlooked and quite a price for trainer Graham Motion

Dean Delivers to place in the Swale.

Royal Spirit to place in the Kitten's Joy

Now I've gotten my red-boarding out of the way off the layoff

Withers Exacta Box 4 5 9 10 for total of $12

smarten up had a pretty bad break...never got up.

i had my eye on grantham to show...just missed.

Time to get serious now for the H.B.

4 and 6 to win.

#4 Simplification, #6 Tiz the Bomb, #8 White Abarrio exa. box.

I'm stinkin' the joint up

Withers wrong Bomb in the exacta


-Close with this one, ran out of room

I could not have been more wrong on that pace,,,47 for the half mile The 4 doesn't fall asleep at the gate he still would win...and yet they don't pay any money for that, do theyt?

$$$$

Good work gents

The race didn't go exactly as I expected but BOOM!

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Who are we looking at in the Risen Star, gents?

Just reading some articles this afternoon. I'll get to the numbers tonight.

I don't really fall in love with horses, but I think Zandon is the real deal. I believe he is a true Derby contender, although I doubt he's cranked for his best effort in this spot. I think he can win anyway. He may go off the third choice in this one behind Smile Happy and Slow Down Andy. If so, I will be firing on all cylinders.

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His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

I assume/hope they are back to normal attendance this year?

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Fairgrounds in New Orleans the site for this weekend’s big race the Grade 2 Risen Star. It’s a 1 1/8-mile race on the main track. Points start to increase here with the winner getting 50

Weather looks great and so does the card. I’m really going to focus on the All Graded Stakes Late P5

As far as the Risen Star (named after a son of some horse named Secretariat)...
Going back a few years, races at this track at this length over the last 5 years, early speed has been essential (23 races, 6 wired, 7 within a length or so early on, and none worse than 5th at 1st call)...14 of last 15 winners had Graded Stakes experience…only 27% of the favorites actually won, which is rather low…13 of last 15 winners had been in the money in their last out

The 1-Pappacap is a horse that I’m personally interested in...from what I’ve heard, his trainer Casse was pointing more towards this race and its points than the Lecomte, and I’m expecting to see further improvements from the 3 YO Colt. He should be able to get clear on the rail without much effort

5-Epicenter trained by Asmussen might be getting better the longer he goes, although it’s still a lot to ask for a horse on the very front end to go farther than they ever have…and I don’t think the front end is the best place for jock Rosario

I like the connections for the 6-Pioneer of Mediana…will press the pack and should get the first jump on the leaders for a huge price for Pletcher/Saez

7-Zandon (JORR’s pick) is a horse that’s a nice fit at 9/2, he had a rough trip last out and got nipped by Mo Denegal who is one of the classiest horses on this year’s trail (and one to keep tabs on for the Belmont)

8-Smile Happy might be on the top of everyone’s list right now, being well placed by McPeek he needs to show well here…probably will, given the pedigree for distance especially on the dam side

The 10 Slow Down Andy is just going to have to work so hard from that post, good horse, I just like others

8-1-6-7

Lots to like on the undercard and I'll be here for it!

Race 10 Mineshaft

Here’s a bomb for you !!! the 1-Sprawl…trainer stats off the charts…4 wins in 6 tries at this distance
2-Silver Prospector, here’s a distance where Rosario can very deadly
Don’t like he current form of the 3-Title Ready but he won the LA Derby on this course last year
4-Olympiad will be tough to beat if those speed figures hold up…but happy to bet against him…
The 6-Miles D has very few holes in his young game, should be overbet
7-Midcourt…still my favorite angle, lone speed (although I prefer it on turf)…nonetheless, this guy won’t beat me, will need to reverse current form
8-O’Besios…intrigues…classy son of Orb may be in his prime

7-8-1-2


Race 11
1 1/8 on turf…11 Two Emmys is well deserved favorite, best turf numbers
10-Largent a turf specialist that does nothing for me, pass
4-Major Fed has experience at this Graded Stakes level, and this is the kind of day that Geroux shines
And here’s another big potential score…The 3-Santin will finish best of all at a huge price!!!…

exacta box 3 4 6 11

I'm focusing on the speed horses in this race in #1 Pappacap and #10 Slow Down Andy. They rank #2 and #1 in terms of final speed in the simulation, with Pappcap having the highest winning percentage adj. for stakes at 24.3% and the highest of what I call composite win probability at 43.5%, which adds the together the results of win probabilities from the E1, E2 and LP simulations. I don't think that Pappacap had a good trip in the Remsen, when the horse was uncharacteristically slow out of the gate and had to make up ground on the back stretch. I'm guessing that it was Joe Bravo's fault and not the horse's, which is why Casse made the change to Tyler Gaffalione for the Risen Star. Pappacap also got pinned at the rail around the far turn behind Epicenter, which stalled his momentum, but was game down the final stretch only to come up a little short. 1 1/16 looks to be the max distance for Pappacap. Slow Down Andy is another horse I'm looking at after winning Los Alamos with that 101 final speed figure in mid Dec and is coming in well rested. He looks to be a little green because of how he was waving his head down the stretch in the Los Alamos. Smile Happy is a solid horse and the only reason why I'm not automatically on him is because he does not project in the top horses as far as early speed, when this race should favor the speed. I think his position in the Kentucky Jockey Club on the back stretch was fine. Because of the slower pace he was able to get away with being four or five wide around the far turn and still win the race. I don't see any negatives in him, but am just favoring the math around the early speed with Pappa Cap, who's coming out of post 1.

I agree with JORR about Zanden. He's a scrappy horse but might have the same problem that Mo Donegal did in the Holy Bull of showing not enough early speed and being too late with his run down the stretch.

I'll probably go 1, 8 exa. box.

Let's get the party started right. Cajun Two Step should be live at a big price in the first.

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I thought she'd be a lot better than that.

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His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Race 3 looks to be wide open with the 7-More Than Work getting over bet...I'll put a WPS ticket for the 3-Baronne, half brother to former Arlington Million winner Beach Patrol

Race 4-Art Heist big cutback in distance for a quality horse out of Klimt...currently 6-1

I went four deep in there and couldn't catch.

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Late Pick 5

Race 9 10-Drapes…experience…5-She Can’t Sing, Chris Block doesn’t make many mistakes…1-Pass The Plate…8-Amiche, good connections

5-1-8

Race 10- (see above)
7-8-1-2

Race 11 (see above)
3-4-6-11

Race 12
The 11-Hidden Connection and the 9-Awake at Midnyte might be enough to get past this leg, but I’ll add the 2-North Country as well

And in the finale I’ll go with 1, 7 and 8

158/1278/34611/2911/178

For a $216 ticket…it’s like I’m betting with JORR’s kinda money

Good luck all!!!