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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Wow Mo Donegal stuck at the rail...too bad, as I think he'll be sitting on a good race and love his pedigree

I'm pretty sure he'll win the Belmont. I don't really think the rail is going to hurt him with his style. He was going to have to pass most of them regardless of what post he drew.

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His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

supposed to be rain on friday and saturday i think. might be a wet track. i've heard that shapes up well for epicenter and taiba.

Derby Week…Lots of rain Friday in Louisville for the ladies, but should ok by Sat afternoon, may affect track, we’ll see…

Pace is a real question for me...the 4-Summer is Tomorrow and the 8-Charge It along with 17-Classic Causeway will get to the rail and in front and will get the lead…however if the 3-Epicenter decides to run with those three, the pace could get very hot, very early…3 straight wins on the front end in the Derby but that has not been the overall trend…if 3-4 horses are going fast early it won’t be a W-T-W win (although it may be a Hawk WTW)

Haven’t figured out my wagering yet but my top five horses in order are Epicenter, Messier, Mo Donegal, Cyberknife, Zandon, and Classic Causeway (ok 6)…absolutely in flux with the track conditions

So, I’m just not sold on White A…I get his make-up and has definitely had a great prep season, but all that came at Gulfstream and now he has to take it on the road to Churchill, (where he was a well beaten 3rd last year) and his going to be as mid pack as possible, where all the traffic is…this trip is ridiculous, and everything has to go right...

and you can keep both the 12-Taiba and his rider Mike Smith (and the horse he rode into town with)...He's not going to get the run he had in The SA Derby and Messier (who was clearly defeated) has faced more challenges

I'll be pretty surprised if Messier doesn't make the lead. There seems to be enough pace in there to set things up for Zandon and Mo Donegal. I think Mo has his work cut out for him. But I don't believe Zandon is the deep closer he may appear to be at a glance. I suspect he'll be sitting mid-pack in the early stages of the race.

I'll be somewhat surprised if the winner doesn't come from this group:

Zandon
Messier
White Abarrio
Taiba
Mo Donegal

Obviously, I am against Epicenter.

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His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Well then you probably won't like this article then, but I thought is was a good read from a very good writer

https://sports.nbcsports.com/2022/05/02/kentucky-derby-epicenter-ron-winchell-donuts-american-dream/

Every Derby horse has a timeline – the reverse-engineered explanation of how one horse among thousands arrived in this place (the most famous and influential horse race in America) at this time (the first Saturday in May 2022, the tiniest of bull’s-eyes), against reason, common sense and laughably long odds. A story of genius or luck, or both. Epicenter’s is a story of patient endurance across generations. “A 70-year contract,” says Epicenter’s 50-year-old owner, Ron Winchell, in whose hands this enduring family business – Winchell Thoroughbreds – currently rests. It is also, not inconsequentially, the story of 20th century America, of depression families, of westward migration, entrepreneurship and the American Dream as once constructed. And the pursuit of victory in the Kentucky Derby.

Also donuts. Definitely donuts. Because without the donuts, there is no dream, no Derby. No Epicenter. There is none of it.

In 1930, Vernon Hedges Winchell, then in his early 40s, left his wife and three children at the family’s home in Bloomington, Illinois, and drove west in a Model-T Ford. It was the beginning of the depression, and like millions of Americans, Winchell was in search of opportunity, and a better life. He had been a mail carrier in Bloomington, among other jobs. And he had liked to bet on the horses, especially longshots (hold that thought). He settled in Alhambra, 20 miles east of Los Angeles, in the San Gabriel Valley, and sent for his family – his wife, two sons, and two daughters — who made the trip west by train.

His stewardship has been similar to his father’s Denny’s rescue decades earlier: Measured, steady, largely without swag. And prosperous. Their operation includes approximately 54 horses in training, and also 30 mares, 20 yearlings, and 19 foals; they produce and buy at least a dozen top-level yearlings every year. Winchell’s Gun Runner was the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and voted Horse of the Year. And in the present, not only is Epicenter a Derby threat, three-year-old filly Echo Zulu will be among the favorites in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. But the Kentucky Derby remains a blank line in the Winchell books. There have been seven entries since Tapit, and the best finish was Gun Runner’s third in 2016. It is not a race that rewards repeated efforts.

I'm against Echo Zulu too.

What do you think of the Japanese horse? I think I have to use him in horizontals.

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His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

He'd wreck any ticket I'd have

Based on the Dam side distance shouldn't be a problem...but 4th Jockey in 5 races (who I' m guessing doesn't know CD or the Derby) seems a bit of a reach..the perfect horse to fuck my superfecta

That Japanese outfit has been really strong in the big international races.

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His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

And he's purely bred over there, right? Like no American pedigree

Yeah, all Japan through his first two generations.

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His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Is it the same one that owned the late BC races last year?

I'd take Mo in the 1 hole over the Japanese horse in the battle of never won's

I don't know if one of the Japanese BC winners was theirs, but they won a couple on Saudi Cup Day and maybe a couple at Dubai.

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His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Based on the numbers it looks to me like the Kentucky Derby winner is coming out of Santa Anita with Taiba and Messier or the Wood with Mo Donegal. Mo Donegal is in post one, but he projects dominantly in LP.

None of the horses should be lower than 4-1 or 5-1. Epicenter and Zandon's M/L prices are too low and not justified. Battaglia is off his rocker.

of Mo D 5 starts 3 have been from the 1 hole and one from the 2...I think it won't be that big of an issue

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Feels like maybe like 2017 with Lookin at Lee.

Yeah, also with the new gate I don't believe the one hole is the death sentence it was previously.

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His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

I know he has only raced 3 times but I still go back to the Florida Derby and Charge It. Hopefully that horse has matured and will settle in on the track better, he has the speed I believe.

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2018
#ExtendLafleur

What's your over/under at the 1/2 mile? I'll set it at :48 even

Thoughts?.. Who will get there and how many

You'll get paid if he hits...question his pedigree for the distance, but who knows, right?

I'm gonna say faster than 48 depending on what shape the track is in. I expect Messier to be cutting it out with Classic Causeway trying to rate.

As far as Charge It is concerned, I also have concerns about the distance. I didn't like the way he was getting out at the end in Florida. I give him credit though, he kept trying. He's certainly a fast horse.

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His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Hopefully he figures out it is easier to run in straighter lines than all over the track.

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2018
#ExtendLafleur

Yeah, maybe he was just green rather than being tired.

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His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

You bet your ass that is what I am betting on him, $100. Across the board just need to know how to bet it otherwise,

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2018
#ExtendLafleur

Good luck, Hawg. I plan on using that horse in some kind of trifecta or something. I almost put a futures bet on him too.

He was fun to watch in the Florida Derby and he had no fucking clue what he was doing. I am guessing he has gotten much smarter.

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2018
#ExtendLafleur

I wouldn't dismiss Crown Pride. His time in the UAE Derby was pretty good and he's had the best work at Churchill of all the horses, turning in a half mile in 0:46.

The other long shots I would consider are Zosos, Tiz the Bomb and Barber Rd. I already have wagers on White Abbario and Barber Rd in the futures. Mostly, I'm going to be betting the California horses in Messier and Taiba. Why screw around when they're the best in the field? Baffert is going to get the last laugh.