"Bursticate" is a made up word that some of my racetrack friends and I use to indicate a horse that has been pointed to a spot and is ready to produce his maximum effort.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Nice hit on Raise Cain. I liked the name but was out when it ran. JORR making it rain lately.

Alive in the early Pick 5 at Santa Anita $36
1, 2, 4 / 3, 7 / 1, 6 /

4, 5 / 1, 4, 5

Late Pick 5 at Santa Anita starting Race 5 $45
1, 4, 5 / 4, 7 / 3, 9 / 1, 4 / 1, 2, 4, 5

Nice hit JORR! yesterday

Bit of a yawn this week as it's the the Tampa Bay Derby, and if Tapit Trice doesn't demolish this field I'd be very surprised


Late Pick5 make the logical favorite a single

Tampa late P5
1, 8, 9, 10 / 6, 7, 8 / 6 / 2, 3, 5, 6, 10 / 6

Next up at Tampa Race Race 10 love the 5-Dreaming of Snow (the local jock Samy Camacho ruling on the turf at 8-1)

Trifecta box $30
2, 3, 5, 6, 10

Gotta think that if they work on Tapit Trice outta the gate...he's gonna be my pick for the Derby

take a look at his splits for the end of the race...kept getting faster...early, but lots to like

He wasn't handling the whole race. It's hard to believe he won.

This is a real distance horse. Great chance to win the Belmont if he doesn't win the Derby.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Louisiana Derby:

Instant Coffee is an absolute bet against in this spot. I believe he is a miler. If I can get anywhere close to the M/L on Disarm- I highly doubt it- I will be firing. The other two Cox horses are interesting. I like Tapit's Conquest the better of the two and I think he has a legit shot here, but if Jace's Road can make an easy enough lead he can be very dangerous.

Jeff Ruby Steaks:

I am also against the M/L favorite in this one. I will probably be going for the downs here with Baby Billy who I think has a real chance here, certainly a lot better chance than his morning line. In fact, the whole morning line for this race is fucked up. I will also likely use Scoobie Quando, Funtastic Again, and Wadsworth. This may be a rare case where I box exactas using Baby Billy as the key.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Not seeing any rain tomorrow for Louisiana Derby Day…

Race 10 G2 turf…6-Two Emmys as tough as they come on this beat…Block lures Prat onto the 7-Another Mystery who popped an eye-opening speed last out in a G3

Race 11 Casse Jr gets Reylu and a horse that jumped 17 speed points last out…the 4-The Alys Look 2/1 ml fav…5-Hoosier Philly has a ton of bullets, back onto winning ways???

Race 12 Louisiana Derby
produced some Derby DQ winners and Preakness winner in ’19 War of Will

Abspso-fucking-lutley no pace here…so whomever wins it will be doing so against the grind…Cox’s twins of Instant Coffee and Jace Road will take the lions share of wagering, with the latter getting in front of the crowd…I’m making a big play on the 4-Sun Thunder who almost won against glacier fractions in the Risen Star…Into Mischief daddy fits perfectly here…might be a horse to watch further as well

I agree with that. My question about him in this spot is that I'm pretty sure Two-Turn McPeek had him completely cranked up and on edge for the Risen Star. I'm still salty that he got run over by a Cox juice train as I had a huge bet on him and I was cashing it in my head at the eighth pole. I expect a slight regression here.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Watching Dubai is fun racing but betting it is dart throwing. Baffert running Worcester in UAE derby. Perriere I like but this looks like a wide open race if you don't like Cairo.

Race 2...The 1-Coaches Meeting would be a nice start to the day...blew the start in his only previous attempt, if he gets off the rail, I'll take what I can from 24/1 odds

Fair grounds
Late All Stakes Pick 5 (15% Takeout)

1, 6, 8, 9 / 2, 5 / 1, 5, 6, 7 / 5 / 2, 4, 5, 7 $64.00

and a skinnier one replacing Hoosier Philly with Pretty Mischievous in the 11th

We may have just seen the Derby winner in New Orleans. And he didn't win today.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Well then, I had him

I absolutely loved Disarm's race there. He obviously wasn't 100% on go and he looks to have another strong move forward. The 50 points gets him in and it seems like Asmussen is setting him up for a big race on May 6.

The local boys have a Derby horse with that big run by Two Phil's. I don't know if he beat very much but his race was impressive.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Also, the thing I didn't like about that race is that the two horses, one of whom was Jace's Road, busted through the gate and they just immediately reloaded them with nothing more than a cursory vet check at most.

I think there should be a little deeper examination of the horse when something like that happens. And with a race of that importance they probably should have unloaded all of them. (On a related note, if you watch racing from Europe, Japan, or Hong Kong you just don't see horses wild-eyed and spinning like tops at the gate. For the most part they walk in like gentlemen. North American racing has a serious drug problem.)

Anyway, after quickly reloading Jace's Road broke flat-footed, weak rider Geroux couldn't get him to the lead and Kingsbarns cakewalked off six furlongs in 1:14. Everyone knew it was going to be a paceless race. Kudos if you thought Kingsbarns would be the controlling speed.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

You sure called that..




Louisinana Derby day was a nice diversion after a morning funeral . I enjoy John G. Dooley's calls. One of the aspects of Arlington miss most.

_________________
"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

Sorry for your loss


And in a very awkward transition...

Just about $175k in money before the late pick 5 at Fairgrounds even begins

Same here. And also sorry for your loss.

Late pick 5 Fairgrounds. Not a jackpot. Closing day mandatory payout

1 2 5 8
2 8 9
2 3 5
1 3
4 7 8 (tons of speed signed on could break down)

Fast and firm

1 breaks on his face. And Geroux comes up weak as usual. If you had substituted Saez or Irad at the eighth pole the 2 wins easily. How long can Cox keep using this guy as his "A" rider?

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Coin-flip for #11 Forte in the Florida Derby.

The 4/5 on the M/L is right in line with his SPD projections in the simulation and adjusted win percentage. Whoever set the M/L knows his math.

#4 Mage looks likes the only real contender here. He's better than 10-1.

Forte is absolutely legit in here. Pletcher had him loaded for bear coming off the bench last time. The turn around is a little short for Pletcher. I think it's possible that he regresses a little bit. Obviously, tomorrow's race isn't the real goal. And Forte's numbers don't really stand out over a couple others. On the other hand, Pletcher has owned this race.

If Forte falters here, I think Cyclone Mischief is the most likely winner.

In the Ark Derby I like the Yakteen horse a lot. I just hope to get a reasonable price on him- 7/2 or 3/1. Harlocap has a shot to wire the field. I think he may be a little shorter than he should be though.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Late pick 5
689/34 10/56/346/4 9 10 11

I think Forte is the class of this group, but if he struggles early from the post Mage and Cyclone Mischief are solid choices and the numbers for the Rosario and the 10 Fort Bragg are outstanding 32%

Race 11 if the 4 Facia Bella can take advantage of being lone speed Galliardo can bring him home at a huge price

Agree with Cyclone Mischief got WWN's money

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Wood Memorial: I'm 99.99% certain that Crupi is the best horse in this field. I don't know the last time, if ever, that a maiden has won the Wood, but I think today is the day one does. If he wins, I'm guaranteed to have a big day.

Bluegrass Stakes: This is just a great race. I think Tapit Trice is the best horse in this field but this may not be the best spot for him. He has a good chance to win the Derby, especially if Pletcher can get him to sit a little closer to the pace while still maintaining his massive kick. The longer the better for him. He was born for the Belmont.

I'll be trying to beat him today. I expect Blazing Sevens to run a big one here. That last race was inexplicably bad, but he's a Grade 1 winner in a suspect field. Also, Scoobie Quando should be live here at a price. It says a lot that Colebrook skipped the Ruby to go to this, arguably tougher, spot. If he moves up even a little on dirt, he's right there. Finally Clear The Air was also entered in the Wood but goes here. Interetsing that the chose the seemingly tougher race.

Santa Anita Derby: This field seems to have the most quality of the three races. I'm probably going to be all over Skinner in this one, unless the price on the Japanese horse is something I just can't ignore.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Crupi stirring memories of Vahol

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.