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 Post subject: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 8:40 am 
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A lot of players boycotting this meet because they raised takeout one percent. I understand the argument, but they still have lower takeout than almost every other track. I'll be playing.

First Race: NORM Casse has been hotter than a pistol. He saddles the 9 in the opener.

Second Race: 8 Hidden Class class looks legit in this one.

Fifth Race: 13 Elegant Trip may just be faster than these.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 9:33 am 
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Big fields, lots of great names…weird payouts. What’s not to love.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:19 am 
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I totally agree with the takeout anger, it really is misplaced,

Love this place, evn though it is really difficult to win in the exotics (Trifecta, Superfecta) and especially in the horizontals (Pick,3 Pick 5).

Favorites win 28.7% over the last 5 years (31% Maidens, 27% in Stakes). Jockey's to watch include Brian Hernandez and Julian Leparoux (12-23 last 5 years). He's going to catch some big prices based on his recent struggles. If he rebounds here it will pay handsomely. I like him in Race 3, the 8-Shad Nation.

Trainer Brian Lynch has a ridiculous $3 ROI in turf Sprints here, winning 6 of 14 races. Race 4 he has the 4-Static Fire who has won off the bench before

Trainer Mark Maker has been making a lot of money on Turf MIles here at KD, having scored in 22 races, while no other active trainer has more than 7. In Race 5 he saddles Metallurgic, who has a morning line of 15-1! His dad, Cairo Prince has had multiple winners here in the last few years, and jock Florent Geroux gets it done today.

Make some money people


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 12:02 pm 
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1st race, small Win/Place on both JORR's the 9...and I like how this sets up up for the 3-Backwoods Barbie...McPeek who is another trainer that does well here...there was a fair bit of WAY early money


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 12:08 pm 
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Early P5 at KD
1, 3, 5, 9 / 3, 8, 12 / 3, 8 / 4, 9, 10 / 7, 9

I have to go to work but a great day of quality racing at Saratoga, and Del Mar as well. Hope we have safe trips all around. Kick some ass


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 12:14 pm 
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I like the other Casse MARK gets it done with the 1

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 1:20 pm 
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Fuck it I'm working from home today :wink:


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 2:10 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Trainer Brian Lynch has a ridiculous $3 ROI in turf Sprints here, winning 6 of 14 races. Race 4 he has the 4-Static Fire who has won off the bench before



We got the shaft with the late money there. I guess I'm glad I wasn't paying attention since he won. But betting 8/1 shots at 3/1 isn't a good strategy long term.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 2:18 pm 
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Had him Boxed with the 9 and 10, Exacta paid nice, but you're not wrong...fucking CAW's are evil


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 2:35 pm 
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Race 5 I still like the 9-Metallurgic...WPS bet as well as an Exacta Key Box (9 with 1,4,7,11,12 and 1,4,7,1,12 with 9)


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 2:37 pm 
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It's an interesting race. 7 just looks faster than everyone else. But I hate betting losers, especially at 9/5. I guess they may have been waiting to break his maiden for $150,000.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 2:43 pm 
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he ain't gonna be 9/5 either with our off shore friends


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 2:47 pm 
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3/5 :roll: ...the 9 pays over $6 for 3rd


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 3:12 pm 
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Race 6 Keying the 6-Chisparrajos (Spanish for "Fucking CAW's) in exacta key box-1 with my old friend the ALL BALL ($14)...as well as a WPS bet on him as well


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2023 10:36 am 
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1st Race, I really like what trainer Kelsey Danner is doing. The 5-Danka will be a huge price and could be the start of a great day. She also has the 8-Glenbrook Gerry in the 5th


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2023 4:23 pm 
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Race 7 Sat ...
Rusty Arnold Trainer stats shouting out here...4 Elagant Trip Exacta Key box...4/all and all/4


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2023 4:57 pm 
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Any Major Dude would tell you now to bet on the 10 here


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2023 5:19 pm 
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aaaaand he'd be wrong


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2023 5:28 pm 
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Race 10 keying the 3-Stitched at a huge pice with the logical favorites 2,6,8,10,12


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2023 6:34 pm 
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$2 paid $358 :alien:


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2023 6:40 pm 
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8,12,13/ALL Exacta in the Finale


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2023 7:01 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
8,12,13/ALL Exacta in the Finale


OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Jockey's to watch include Brian Hernandez and Julian Leparoux (12-23 last 5 years). He's going to catch some big prices based on his recent struggles. If he rebounds here it will pay handsomely.


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2023 7:02 pm 
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$2 Exacta paid $349


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2023 6:26 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
$2 Exacta paid $349



I think your man has a REALLY good chance to win the Juvenile on Sunday.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 12:01 pm 
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Thursday the 7th...some horses I'm looking at

1st race seems wide open....interesting that trainer Rivelli's horse the 5-Bizee Channel has run this course 4 times finishing in the money on 3 occasions...like the 2,3,4,6 and 10 as well...not sure how I'm playing

Again keep an eye on Jockey Leparoux and his odds in races 2 (15/1), 4 (8/1), 8 (8/1),10 (8/1)...I really like his chances in the 4th with the 7-He's got swagger

Race 5-Candy Corn out of Twirling Candy whose offsprings do quite well here


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:27 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Thursday the 7th...some horses I'm looking at

Again keep an eye on Jockey Leparoux and his odds I really like his chances in the 4th with the 7-He's got swagger

Darn he gets up for 3rd and its a huge trifecta :evil:


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:30 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Thursday the 7th...some horses I'm looking at

Again keep an eye on Jockey Leparoux and his odds I really like his chances in the 4th with the 7-He's got swagger

Darn he gets up for 3rd and its a huge trifecta :evil:

I had him across the board.

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:50 pm 
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Sorry if I mislead you


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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:53 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Sorry if I mislead you

No need to EVER do that!!!!

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 Post subject: Re: Kentucky Downs
PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:38 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
$2 Exacta paid $349



I think your man has a REALLY good chance to win the Juvenile on Sunday.


yeah I think that morning line is out of whack...Block/Ortiz out of Palice Malice...not 20-1 at all


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