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Road to the Derby
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Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Jan 20, 2024 3:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Road to the Derby

Starts today at the Fair Grounds with the Lemonte like Nash to bounce back effort his dull effort in the gun Runner. Good li=uck chaps

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Jan 20, 2024 3:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

I will be singling Can Group.

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Jan 20, 2024 5:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

At Fairgrounds for LECOMTE Stakes good for 20 points towards the Kentucky Derby…down to 6 runners…I think the rematch between Nash and Track Phenom should produce the winner


Race 5 strong Maiden field Hall of Fame will get most of the action I believe after his 2nd at first asking at Churchill…I like the 9-NIGHT OUT

Race 8 I like both of the Curlin Sire’s on debut 7-Exploration and 10-Cornishman

nice card but rather chalky

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sun Jan 21, 2024 8:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I will be singling Can Group.



I got live to $27,000 and that son of a gun wouldn't pick up his feet.

Image

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Thu Feb 01, 2024 3:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Not a Derby prep, but today at Fairgrounds Race 8-Upon a Star...according to Equibase...

"SIRE: Munnings, Fair Grounds, Dirt Sprint: Past 5 Years: 71 Starts, 19 Wins, 27% Win%, 48% ITM%, +79% ROI, $3.58

Late Pick 5

1,3,6,8,9/3,6,7/2,6/3,5,8/1,4,5

knock em dead

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Thu Feb 01, 2024 5:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Not my day...the Pick 5 will pay from 1.5 K to 93 K

The 6-Upon a Star ran a solid 2nd


see you all tomorrow

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Fri Feb 02, 2024 10:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Traditional PK-6 (non-jackpot) carryovers.

I haven't see the scratches yet, but here's my plan:

FG:

3,6,9,10/6,8/1/2,3,4,8/11/1,3,4,6

SA:

2/3/6/ALL/1,6/1,2

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Feb 02, 2024 1:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

SA is off the Turf today and probably all weekend

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Fri Feb 02, 2024 2:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

OscarTangoEcho wrote:
SA is off the Turf today and probably all weekend



Come on, man. It never rains in Southern California!

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Feb 02, 2024 2:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

It pours man, it pours.

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Feb 02, 2024 3:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

At Fairgrounds alive to the 1, 4 and 5 in the early Pick 5

alive to 1,4,5,6,7,8/2.5/8.9.11/2,6 in the Late Pick 5

no early P5 at Santa Anita, not enough runners...may punch a late Pick 5


good luck if you're playing

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Feb 02, 2024 4:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Ok ($1,044) and still alive going forward as well to

2,5/8,9,11/2,6

and Late Pick 5 at Santa Anita
1,3/1,5/1,2,3,5,6,8/5,6/1,2,6,8

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Feb 02, 2024 4:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Don't know what I was thinking excluding Loveberry on the route...oh well...

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Fri Feb 02, 2024 5:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

and through some sloppy work, I have another SA ticket...pretty similar though
5/1,5,6/3,4,6/1,6/1,2,6,8

Author:  Dignified Rube [ Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

I'm rooting for the underdog Uncle Heavy in the Withers. Coming off a nice win after upsetting a 1/5 horse in a $200K graded stakes race for 2 yr. olds in December at Parx in the mud. Looks like he could run all day.

Seminole Chief looks interesting as well. He's the class and is the speed horse in the race at 12-1. On a win percentage basis alone he's got almost 3-1 value. He'll be pressing early. Could run away with it.

This is a good betting race if the live odds materialize anything close to the M/L prices.

The likely winner of the Holy Bull seems to be a foregone conclusion.

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Sat Feb 03, 2024 1:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Southwest: Liberal Arts won in the goo @ CD
Withers: Miss Beach stretching out and Dylan Davis been riding his ass off
Holy Bull: No beat Repole's horse looks too good
Robert Lewis: Tri box Baffert

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sat Feb 03, 2024 2:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

I think Risk It is the nuts in the Swale. Hope to get a good enough price.

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Feb 03, 2024 2:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Late Pick 5 Gulfstream...
1,6,7/6,7,8 (huge price)/4,6,7/9/1,7

Early Pick 5 SA
1,2/2,6,7/2,5,6/1,4,7/6

Late P5 SA
3,8,10/4,7/2,3,5,6/3,4,6/2,5,7,9

Early P5 Fairgrounds
Still a good card despite the mud, thinking it might dry out
3,6/5,6,7/2,4/2,3,7/4,6,13,14

Late P5 Fairgrounds
2,5,6/8,10,11/6,7/4,5,6,8/2,7,11

Make some money boys

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Feb 03, 2024 3:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Walt, I'm with you on Liberal Arts in the Southwest, I have him boxed with Awesome Road, Otto The Conquerer with Carbone underneath for the exacta

Author:  Dignified Rube [ Sat Feb 03, 2024 3:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Yeah, Uncle Heavy!!

Pennsylvania horse!

Author:  OscarTangoEcho [ Sat Feb 03, 2024 4:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Nice Hit!

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

The best horse Saturday won't run the 1st Saturday in May

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Mon Feb 05, 2024 4:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Walt Williams Neck wrote:
The best horse Saturday won't run the 1st Saturday in May


The best science project won't run. That's for sure. He will be loaded up with God knows what to win the Haskell and the Parx Derby.

Author:  Walt Williams Neck [ Mon Feb 05, 2024 6:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
The best horse Saturday won't run the 1st Saturday in May


The best science project won't run. That's for sure. He will be loaded up with God knows what to win the Haskell and the Parx Derby.

You still think Bob is cheating?

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Mon Feb 05, 2024 6:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
The best horse Saturday won't run the 1st Saturday in May


The best science project won't run. That's for sure. He will be loaded up with God knows what to win the Haskell and the Parx Derby.

You still think Bob is cheating?



How could it be that the same guy has a Horse of a Lifetime almost every year? If he's that good everyone else should quit in embarrassment.

People are worried about the Derby having an asterisk because he isn't allowed to race. I give every Derby Baffert has won an asterisk.

Author:  ShortTimeLurker [ Tue Feb 06, 2024 5:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

With Baffert it's not about race day medication, it's about recovery and training medication.

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Wed Feb 07, 2024 4:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

ShortTimeLurker wrote:
With Baffert it's not about race day medication, it's about recovery and training medication.



Yeah, and whatever he's using is more exotic than what the typical guy has.

Author:  ShortTimeLurker [ Fri Feb 09, 2024 1:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

After California cracked down, some barn's win % fell off. But with Baffert he has the best stock and the best chemists and like I said last post his method is between races not on race day.
So he just rolling along.

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Fri Feb 09, 2024 1:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

ShortTimeLurker wrote:
After California cracked down, some barn's win % fell off. But with Baffert he has the best stock and the best chemists and like I said last post his method is between races not on race day.
So he just rolling along.


I don't think he has the "best stock." That's the excuse his apologists give to defend his absurd results. Medina Spirit was a $1000 horse. American Pharoah was an RNA. Real Quiet was a $36,000 horse. I'm not saying he has no high priced stock. But he's winning classic races with donkeys too.

Author:  ShortTimeLurker [ Fri Feb 09, 2024 1:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Road to the Derby

Does Baffert have the #1 ranking in stock quality, I don't know. He does have owners with deep pockets willing to spend that money.
I will guess there are very few trainers who would not trade their barn for his.

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