If you haven't figured it out already, you will often find me on the "other side" of the conventional wisdom or the "popular" pick of the week. Most popular picks are favorites and most favorites are over-valued. Because so many NFL games finish so close to the number, I believe that long-term profits in NFL wagering requires more knowledge about lines and value than knowledge of football.

Here is this week's Market Place report from Sports Insights, which talks about this week's betting market. If anybody is interested in this, let me know and I'll post it every Friday. If not, I'll save the bandwidth.

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NFL WEEK 1
It’s always nice to start off the year by taking a look back. For the 2005 NFL season, SportsInsights.com Games to Watch was an impressive 33-25 = 56.9%. Last year by all accounts was the “Year of the Square,” meaning favorites covered at an unprecedented rate. For our column (which is primarily underdog value plays “against the public”) to achieve a 57% win percentage is a miracle in itself – but let’s not linger on the past too long: a new NFL season is upon us!

Warning to all new readers of the Sports Marketplace column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need nerves of steel and an iron stomach. Purchasing a case of Pepto-Bismol wouldn’t be a bad idea. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

We anticipate New England, Seattle, and Arizona to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view live wagering statistics from SEVEN online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 1 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs
Are the Cincinnati Bengals that good? The Public thinks so. This game will be one of the top five most lopsided bet games. The sportsbooks will need KC HUGE this weekend. I love being on the side of the sportsbook. The line opened at KC -3 at CRIS; a couple of books offered -4 earlier, but with low bet limits. I spoke with the line managers at Bowmans and Oasis, with both confirming that heavy one-sided PUBLIC action on Cincinnati pushed the line to KC-1. I like the value in a solid KC squad only laying -1 at home. I wouldn’t be surprised if this line moves to a Pick before kick-off. Our money is with the sportsbooks!

Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions
There is little doubt in the sportsbook industry that this will be the biggest game of the weekend. The Public can’t get enough of Seattle. Steve Stone, line manager at Oasis put it best, “It’s like we opened the flood gates. Every other parlay we take is tied to Seattle. If we win this game and manage to break up teasers, we’ll have a profitable day.” Very rarely will you see a game being bet this one-sided. SportsInsights.com is showing 92% of the Public on Seattle with approx 50,000 bets polled. This game satisfies four major criteria we use to judge line value.
• Public overwhelmingly on one side
• Home dog
• Drastic line movement caused by Public money
• Negative press

The game opened at Seattle -4 and has moved 3pts to Seattle -7. We’re taking the +7 and looking for a big opening week home dog cover.

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers
Last season Chicago went from being an afterthought to Super Bowl contenders. Their smothering Defense reeked havoc on opposing offences. Unfortunately, Chicago’s offense has to take the field and continually reeked havoc on themselves. Green Bay is coming off the worst season in the Favre era. Look for Green Bay to play with a chip on their shoulder as they have lots to prove this season. I like an intense division rival getting +4.5 points at HOME.

As expected, there’s heavy one-sided action on Chicago. 5Dimes.com is reporting a decent amount of Sharp action on Green Bay that is helping to keep the line steady. We anticipate the Public action to overwhelm the Sharp money and push this line to -5 or -5.5 before kickoff.

Games to Watch (0-0)
KC -1
Detroit Lions +7
Green Bay +4.5

appreciate the insight, coast

In my opinion, the more infor the better coast