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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:00 pm 
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Don't be mad at the Cubs. Dan is here to explain the pain away with data and facts.

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By Dan Bernstein–
CBSChicago.com senior columnist

(CBS) There was ample reason to expect this, in hindsight, no matter that the algorithmic projection systems agreed that the 2017 Cubs should remain one of baseball’s best teams.

Going back to 2012, the World Series champion has failed to make the playoffs the next season. That’s just a fact, regardless of any ranges of individual player outcomes considered when gauging expectations. It may be one of the flaws in over-reliance on metrics, the blind spot that can’t quantify the emotional effect of playing deep into the fall, winning and then starting spring training still in a celebratory blur. Guessing about the reasons for the downturn isn’t as meaningful as accepting that it exists.

Analysts Ben Lindbergh and Rob McQuown investigated the trend back in 2014, noting then that champions in the wild-card era regressed the next season from an average winning percentage of .588 to one of .537, a significant margin of -.051 that’s still well below the Cubs’ alarming drop from .635 to their current .481.

Now, before a more thorough discussion of what’s happening here, this disclaimer is necessary. The 2017 Cubs still have every chance to snap back to form, at least something better than their recent moribund state of 25-27, if not last year’s impossible level of play. The number of individual players performing at the low end of their respective probability spectra is about the same as 2016’s widespread over-performance epidemic, and we’re still understanding what young players can do in a relatively small sample size. Individual baseball seasons are small enough statistical groupings themselves, so all of this is offered with a full awareness of the inescapable dominion of variance.

Lindbergh wrote, “To reach the World Series, a lot of things have to go right — clutch hitting, good health, lucky bounces, unhittable bullpens — and those things rarely go equally right in consecutive seasons.”

Moreover, he found that roster stasis was a likely contributing factor to decline, as teams stuck with what got them there to the point of detriment.

“Think of it this way,” he argued. “If you’re depending on a collection of players who just reached the pinnacle of the sport, there’s nowhere before the group to go but down.”

And here is where the Cubs’ situation deviates from that logic, in part. The truth is that they didn’t stand pat after last year in the hope of unlikely replication, because they’re smart enough to know all this. They gave center field to Albert Almora, the lead-off spot to Kyle Schwarber and reshuffled their high-leverage bullpen roles with Wade Davis and Koji Uehara added in.

Schwarber’s -0.4 WAR is killing the Cubs, as he has become a far worse offensive player than he already was defensively. Almora is a flat 0.0 WAR to this point. Uehara and Davis have been fine at 0.6 and 0.7, respectively, but haven’t been able to influence enough games because the Cubs are mired in the bottom one-third of MLB in wOBA and wRC+.

We still don’t know what Addison Russell (0.4 WAR) or Javier Baez (0.2) may be or where they are in what is clearly non-linear development for both of them, and it’s possible that age erosion for Jake Arrieta, Ben Zobrist and John Lackey could be more accelerated than anticipated.

So now president of baseball operations Theo Epstein must make shrewd and honest assessments of what this team may need to add and subtract to maximize its chances and the extent to which he wants to expend resources to chase a title this year. It’s possible that his definition of “sustained contention” already baked in the possibility of regression after a World Series win and that a broader scope from his experience in Boston would mean keeping his powder dry.

Manager Joe Maddon is keeping everything expectedly sanguine as his bosses allow him to set the tone daily, both publicly and in the clubhouse. Everything is fine, up until the point that it’s not.

But something is clearly not right with the Cubs, that much is obvious. Really, many things aren’t right.

Relative to last year is one thing, we understand — 2016 wasn’t going to happen again regardless of the best planning and even a little good fortune, because baseball ensures that it doesn’t. It’s fair, however, to expect that some issues can and should be addressed before this year drags a still-talented team too far down.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:04 pm 
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So basically the reason they're not as good as last year is because they're not playing as well as last year.

Thanks, Dan.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:06 pm 
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I couldn't stomach that drivel enough to really finish it. Did he address the small four team sample size that seems to be the primary support for his latest knee-pad requiring opus? Or therefore how it's contrary to every other metrics argument he makes?

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:07 pm 
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There was a time, in the long long ago, a man started writing for a magazine. He was then brought on board to be part of a creative process on a TV show. The ratings for that show went through the roof, and in the middle of it, the rival TV show hired that man and his friend to come to their side to beat down their competition. It didn't work. That man proceeded to drive that organization into the ground so hard and so fast, it didn't know what hit it. That company fired that man and proceeded to close its doors.

The man got another creative job for a new company. It didn't go much better.

Now he records podcasts and spouts off online about bullshit that he doesn't agree with.

That man is Vince Russo.

Here's hoping Senior Columnist follows Vince Russo's career path from here on out. It's got to be better than whatever the fuck he is doing now.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:09 pm 
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Sure, dan really expected the 2017 Cubs to be about as good as the 2017 White Sox. Okay. :lol:

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:10 pm 
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sjboyd0137 wrote:
There was a time, in the long long ago, a man started writing for a magazine. He was then brought on board to be part of a creative process on a TV show. The ratings for that show went through the roof, and in the middle of it, the rival TV show hired that man and his friend to come to their side to beat down their competition. It didn't work. That man proceeded to drive that organization into the ground so hard and so fast, it didn't know what hit it. That company fired that man and proceeded to close its doors.

The man got another creative job for a new company. It didn't go much better.

Now he records podcasts and spouts off online about bullshit that he doesn't agree with.

That man is Vince Russo.

Here's hoping Senior Columnist follows Vince Russo's career path from here on out. It's got to be better than whatever the fuck he is doing now.

:lol:

Boyd is on fire lately.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:11 pm 
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Terry's Peeps wrote:
sjboyd0137 wrote:
There was a time, in the long long ago, a man started writing for a magazine. He was then brought on board to be part of a creative process on a TV show. The ratings for that show went through the roof, and in the middle of it, the rival TV show hired that man and his friend to come to their side to beat down their competition. It didn't work. That man proceeded to drive that organization into the ground so hard and so fast, it didn't know what hit it. That company fired that man and proceeded to close its doors.

The man got another creative job for a new company. It didn't go much better.

Now he records podcasts and spouts off online about bullshit that he doesn't agree with.

That man is Vince Russo.

Here's hoping Senior Columnist follows Vince Russo's career path from here on out. It's got to be better than whatever the fuck he is doing now.

:lol:

Boyd is on fire lately.


Well, you know...

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:18 pm 
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"there was ample reason to expect this, in hindsight"

What does that sentence even mean?! Everything is "expectable" in hindsight! You dolt!

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:19 pm 
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Spot on article.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:23 pm 
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Everything is fine, up until the point that it’s not.

He loves these sentences because they sound simplistically deep, but in reality, they don't mean anything.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:23 pm 
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Russo was simply one of MANY factors as to why dubbya-see-dubbya went under.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:27 pm 
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There's nothing that says you should have expected this especially with such a crappy division and frankly a pretty weak NL. You expected the Cubs to get swept by the Padres?

Now if they had a ton of injuries, then you would at least have an excuse. You have nearly every player under performing expectations save maybe Heyward and a few bullpen guys. I mean even if you hate Schwarber, you probably penciled him in for .220.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:27 pm 
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Don Tiny wrote:
Russo was simply one of MANY factors as to why dubbya-see-dubbya went under.


Very true...Bischoff was the definite head of the proverbial monster...that and "Creative Control", but Russo is fun to pick on.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:28 pm 
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Is this directly copied from the Sheehan newsletter?


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:33 pm 
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City of Fools wrote:
"there was ample reason to expect this, in hindsight"

What does that sentence even mean?! Everything is "expectable" in hindsight! You dolt!

:lol:

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:57 pm 
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I kind of expect more out of a duke grad. This is shit that a dope with a thesaurus can write for a high school newspaper.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:33 pm 
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I agree with DB that this is a great article.

However, the problem is that Bernstein and other Cubs fans told us this team was built "differently" and designed to avoid these types of things. So, saying that this kind of thing was expected is acknowledging that there really was nothing special about what they did besides simply making a few good trades and having a bunch of lucky breaks with players playing far above what would be expected to win the World Series.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:39 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I agree with DB that this is a great article.

However, the problem is that Bernstein and other Cubs fans told us this team was built "differently" and designed to avoid these types of things. So, saying that this kind of thing was expected is acknowledging that there really was nothing special about what they did besides simply making a few good trades and having a bunch of lucky breaks with players playing far above what would be expected to win the World Series.


You can't do both. If you're going to fake liking Bernstein, you can't talk bad about "Cubs fans." He's the worst one there is.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:43 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I agree with DB that this is a great article.

However, the problem is that Bernstein and other Cubs fans told us this team was built "differently" and designed to avoid these types of things. So, saying that this kind of thing was expected is acknowledging that there really was nothing special about what they did besides simply making a few good trades and having a bunch of lucky breaks with players playing far above what would be expected to win the World Series.


You can't do both. If you're going to fake liking Bernstein, you can't talk bad about "Cubs fans." He's the worst one there is.
I like you too. That's not fake either.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 6:02 pm 
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Did I not read the part where having Schwarber at leadoff is a complete fucking joke?

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 6:06 pm 
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sjboyd0137 wrote:
Don Tiny wrote:
Russo was simply one of MANY factors as to why dubbya-see-dubbya went under.


Very true...Bischoff was the definite head of the proverbial monster...that and "Creative Control", but Russo is fun to pick on.


Russo did the most damage, but what really killed WCW was the AOL Time Warner merger and an executive, Jamie Kellner, who wanted WCW off TBS and TNT so badly that he'd have Turner sell WCW for nothing than sell them for value and keep them on TV.

There's a book about the disaster of the AOL Time Warner merger, Fools Rush In, that I want to read now that we might very well have a merger of Time Warner and AT&T that's just as ill-advised.

Oh, and flash the Davesignal, he needs to know about this Senor Columnisting, holy shit is this bad.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:11 pm 
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Boyd is on fire lately.


and go figure that somewhat recently (last 3 months or thereabouts?) you started seeing boyd pop up on facebook rocking expos hats and whatnot.... surely this can't be a coincidence, right? #ViveLesExpos!

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:14 pm 
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Manager Joe Maddon is keeping everything expectedly sanguine as his bosses allow him to set the tone daily, both publicly and in the clubhouse. Everything is fine, up until the point that it’s not.


Dan is what he says he is till he isn't, at which point he never was.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:18 pm 
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don't worry, i remember back in ST dan brazenly said THE CUBS ARE NOT WINNING THE WORLD SERIES THIS YEAR, so i mean.... *claps hands* it's settled then. i don't know why people are acting all surprised that the cubs are doing what they're supposed to do [aka "what dan bernstein said they're going to [not] do" =]

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:24 pm 
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clutch hitting, good health, lucky bounces, unhittable bullpens — and those things rarely go equally right in consecutive seasons.”
Quote:


Can't believe Dan quoted this, when I have heard him directly state that there is no such thing as "clutch hitting", statistically speaking. And nothing could be more random than "lucky bounces."

Seems like he is playing both sides of the sabermetrics argument.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:48 pm 
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sjboyd0137 wrote:
There was a time, in the long long ago, a man started writing for a magazine. He was then brought on board to be part of a creative process on a TV show. The ratings for that show went through the roof, and in the middle of it, the rival TV show hired that man and his friend to come to their side to beat down their competition. It didn't work. That man proceeded to drive that organization into the ground so hard and so fast, it didn't know what hit it. That company fired that man and proceeded to close its doors.

The man got another creative job for a new company. It didn't go much better.

Now he records podcasts and spouts off online about bullshit that he doesn't agree with.

That man is Vince Russo.

Here's hoping Senior Columnist follows Vince Russo's career path from here on out. It's got to be better than whatever the fuck he is doing now.


Vic Venom. Great columnist.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:21 am 
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Another bullshit slurpfest. Bernstein said the other day that if the Cubs don't win the division (not just sneak in through the wild card), the season is a failure. Now he's setting up excuses. He complains about small sample sizes, yet he points to the last four WS winners not making the playoffs the following year as proof of emotional letdown. Four...what a sample size!

We've been told by DB himself that this team was built differently--to take multiple bites at the apple--so a comparison to the one-off 2015 Royals or the 2014 Red Sox (constructed in part by Theo himself) isn't really useful. He's correct that there's still time to right the ship (heck, the Big Red Machine was only 20-20 in 1975 before figuring things out and becoming a juggernaut) but to this point Theo and Joe have fucked up as much as the players, and acolyte Danny won't call them on it.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:32 am 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
the one-off 2015 Royals

were a game away from winning the World Series in 2014, too.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 6:28 am 
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Heisenberg wrote:
Quote:
clutch hitting, good health, lucky bounces, unhittable bullpens — and those things rarely go equally right in consecutive seasons.”
Quote:


Can't believe Dan quoted this, when I have heard him directly state that there is no such thing as "clutch hitting", statistically speaking. And nothing could be more random than "lucky bounces."

Seems like he is playing both sides of the sabermetrics argument.



In fairness to bernstein, I believe his point is exactly that- that where the hits fall, i.e. "clutch", is a matter of luck rather than something to be counted on.

The problem I have is that when anyone questioned what exactly it was that made anyone believe that guys like Schwarber or Russell were so great (it obviously wasn't any proven performance), they were immediately dismissed as idiots. Kyle Schwarber was actually considered an elite hitter, even by many guys who should know better.

Finally, there are two real reasons the Cubs are struggling. One is that the starting pitching isn't dominating the way it was last season. The other is that every heretofore worthless bum that Maddon inserts into the lineup isn't performing above any reasonable expectation. Indeed, both those things were to be expected.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 7:41 am 
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Manager Joe Maddon is keeping everything expectedly sanguine


very sanguine


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