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7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=107439		 Page 8 of 8
Author:  good dolphin [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
Remember that time leash said he hated foreigners and brown skinned people and was just waiting for the day the race wars would start? At least I think that was him.
Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
Hank Scorpio wrote:
I love that JLN can look at FIP and determine that Shark and Scott Feldman are pretty good. Thank god they actually play the games so people can watch them and see how wrong you are.

Feldman has been good this year and was great the year the Cubs had him (which is why they got so much)

He's a guy who has stretches of pretty fucking good-ness
Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
FavreFan wrote:
Arguing the extremes on this issue just makes someone come off as foolish. "W/L is meaningless" is a much more ridiculous statement than anything jorr has said.

Leash, stop trying to declare yourself as arbiter of emoticon use. It's not that serious.

Correct. W-L % has value. It's not the best stat to look at either.

Now no one is happy
Author:  Hank Scorpio [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
rogers park bryan wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Arguing the extremes on this issue just makes someone come off as foolish. "W/L is meaningless" is a much more ridiculous statement than anything jorr has said.

Leash, stop trying to declare yourself as arbiter of emoticon use. It's not that serious.

Correct. W-L % has value. It's not the best stat to look at either.

Now no one is happy


I never said it was the best or only stat to look at. I think it's important though and shouldn't be summarily dismissed.
Author:  rogers park bryan [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
Hank Scorpio wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Arguing the extremes on this issue just makes someone come off as foolish. "W/L is meaningless" is a much more ridiculous statement than anything jorr has said.

Leash, stop trying to declare yourself as arbiter of emoticon use. It's not that serious.

Correct. W-L % has value. It's not the best stat to look at either.

Now no one is happy


I never said it was the best or only stat to look at. I think it's important though and shouldn't be summarily dismissed.

I wasnt aiming at you


Interesting hypothetical: You're a GM and you have to decide between two pitchers to trade for

They are both starters.

You get to look at one stat from the previous year. W-L, ERA, or Whip

Which do you look at?
Author:  FavreFan [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
rogers park bryan wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Arguing the extremes on this issue just makes someone come off as foolish. "W/L is meaningless" is a much more ridiculous statement than anything jorr has said.

Leash, stop trying to declare yourself as arbiter of emoticon use. It's not that serious.

Correct. W-L % has value. It's not the best stat to look at either.


Agreed. In terms of importance I got it ranked

ERA
TWTW
W/L
WHIP
FIP
WAR
xFIP
BABIP
xWGBAP
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
rogers park bryan wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Arguing the extremes on this issue just makes someone come off as foolish. "W/L is meaningless" is a much more ridiculous statement than anything jorr has said.

Leash, stop trying to declare yourself as arbiter of emoticon use. It's not that serious.

Correct. W-L % has value. It's not the best stat to look at either.

Now no one is happy


I never said it was the best or only stat to look at. I think it's important though and shouldn't be summarily dismissed.

I wasnt aiming at you


Interesting hypothetical: You're a GM and you have to decide between two pitchers to trade for

They are both starters.

You get to look at one stat from the previous year. W-L, ERA, or Whip

Which do you look at?


W/L record. With ERA or WHIP you might end up signing a guy who only pitched seven innings last season.
Author:  312player [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
Era
Ip
Whip
W-l
Author:  312player [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
I don't care about fip...a guy like Samardiza has lots of Ks and few walks... He still gives up hits and runs, way too many, he's a bum, his fip says he's good.
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
rogers park bryan wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Arguing the extremes on this issue just makes someone come off as foolish. "W/L is meaningless" is a much more ridiculous statement than anything jorr has said.

Leash, stop trying to declare yourself as arbiter of emoticon use. It's not that serious.

Correct. W-L % has value. It's not the best stat to look at either.

Now no one is happy



What do you think the best stat to look at is? Maybe there isn't a "best". But I'd make an argument for W/L record provided a guy has enough starts and that should be evident within that record.

By the way, I think getting Quintana was a great move for the Cubs. He gives them durability and cost certainty in their rotation for the next 3 seasons plus. Quintana isn't junk. You need guys like him. He's just not a top-of-rotation stud. If you're counting on him being that you'll be disappointed. But for what he's paid he doesn't have to be that.

If you think over the next three seasons he's going to give you 600 innings at a sub-4 ERA, that's probably what you'll get. But here's where Juice and I have a disconnect. He obviously believes that pitchers just go out and spit out their numbers and whatever happens with the offense happens. I see a game as an ebb and flow with players performing within the context of said game. Quintana has made 170 starts. I've seen about 100 of them and maybe a third of those in person. I'm pretty confident I know who he is.
Author:  FavreFan [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
I said this to start this discussion but I just can't wrap my head around people thinking Quintana and Lester are literally interchangeable performance wise. I'm not thrilled if I have Lester going against Kershaw or Scherzer in the playoffs but I'm fine with it. I'm definitely not feeling as good if it's Quintana. But if you're a Fangraphs guy you should have the exact same amount of confidence.
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
FavreFan wrote:
I said this to start this discussion but I just can't wrap my head around people thinking Quintana and Lester are literally interchangeable performance wise. I'm not thrilled if I have Lester going against Kershaw or Scherzer in the playoffs but I'm fine with it. I'm definitely not feeling as good if it's Quintana. But if you're a Fangraphs guy you should have the exact same amount of confidence.



In fairness to Juice, I believe he does consider them comparable.

Also, I'm not suggesting that Lester's winning percentage isn't helped to some degree by playing on teams with high powered offenses. But I will argue all day long that those offenses can't account for a .120 swing in winning.
Author:  Juice's Lecture Notes [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
FavreFan wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Arguing the extremes on this issue just makes someone come off as foolish. "W/L is meaningless" is a much more ridiculous statement than anything jorr has said.


Who exactly here has argued that W/L is meaningless? That's one of JORR's favorite straw men. Even I could only show that 60% of it is dependent on something a pitcher has little, if any, impact on.

Strawman?

Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
:lol: I've literally done the math to show you just how meaningless W/L% is


Did you...did you not read the last sentence ofy post?

Or did you mean that arguing that any portion of W/L% is meaningless is ridiculous?

I did.... did read the post. You're arguing that W/L is meaningless. If I say I'm going to show someone just how dumb they are, I'm presumably arguing that they are dumb. And I could go back and find more quotes. This is far from the first time you've said it and then backtracked.

Anyway, if you don't think W/L is meaningless than I don't understand your beef with jorr. He never said it's the only meaningful stat. So you guys essentially agree on the topic and are really only arguing over a matter of degree.


My quote was referring to the regression analysis which put 60% of W/L% at the feet of a pitcher's supporting batting lineup. How is that arguing that W/L% is absolutely meaningless?
Author:  Juice's Lecture Notes [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
Hank Scorpio wrote:
Here's another experiment. Take the top 5 FIP pitchers with the same sample size as you did wl% and we can compare the two. I'd guess we would see most of the same names. If so, in your opinion, would that just be a huge coincidence?


I would say their W/L% is a downstream result from many more important things, like run support from their team's lineup, defense, and limiting run scoring by keeping walks and HR's to a minimum, all of which are quantified well before a W or L is recorded.
Author:  FavreFan [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
My quote was referring to the regression analysis which put 60% of W/L% at the feet of a pitcher's supporting batting lineup. How is that arguing that W/L% is absolutely meaningless?

The way it was worded and the arguments you have made in the past make it clear. But if that's how you feel I will refer you to my previous quote.

FavreFan wrote:
Anyway, if you don't think W/L is meaningless than I don't understand your beef with jorr. He never said it's the only meaningful stat. So you guys essentially agree on the topic and are really only arguing over a matter of degree.
Author:  Beardown [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
.
Author:  DAC [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 5:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
Since a W/L record is affected by so many variables many of which a pitcher has no control over, it is a very unreliable stat. What specifically does a W/L record tell you and doesn't another stat tell you the same information more accurately? And if someone says it is an all-encompassing stat then just look at WAR. Granted, people that like a W/L record are most likely anti-metrics and will point to couple flaws of WAR in order to discredit it even though a W/L is much less reliable for assessing quality pitching.
Author:  Keyser Soze [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 5:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
Those who love w/l (may god have mercy on your souls) should also love war because they're both made up stats.
Author:  Beardown [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 5:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
I've changed. Goff let me down today.

Now I consider myself Mexican. I'm gonna have a burrito for dinner to celebrate.
Author:  DAC [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 5:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
Keyser Soze wrote:
Those who love w/l (may god have mercy on your souls) should also love war because they're both made up stats.


But at least WAR tries to assess a player on what they can control NOT on his teammates' play.
Author:  Hank Scorpio [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 5:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
It's not the only thing to use. Every stat is flawed in some way. A bum pitcher might go 15-9 one season because of run support, matchups, etc. In the end his career w/l will end up where it should be. Same with FIP, if it says Shark is good... it needs some tweaking. :lol:
Author:  Keyser Soze [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 5:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
DAC wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
Those who love w/l (may god have mercy on your souls) should also love war because they're both made up stats.


But at least WAR tries to assess a player on what they can control NOT on his teammates' play.

True dat.
Author:  Hank Scorpio [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 5:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
DAC wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
Those who love w/l (may god have mercy on your souls) should also love war because they're both made up stats.


But at least WAR tries to assess a player on what they can control NOT on his teammates' play.


I didn't know allowing runs was outside of the pitchers control. All he has to do is allow less runs than his opponent. The bullpen blowing a lead and the team coming back will even themselves out over time.
Author:  Juice's Lecture Notes [ Tue Jul 18, 2017 5:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 7/14: Bernstein watches television standing up
Hank Scorpio wrote:
DAC wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
Those who love w/l (may god have mercy on your souls) should also love war because they're both made up stats.


But at least WAR tries to assess a player on what they can control NOT on his teammates' play.


I didn't know allowing runs was outside of the pitchers control. All he has to do is allow less runs than his opponent. The bullpen blowing a lead and the team coming back will even themselves out over time.


The mark he has to beat is set by his own batting lineup, something he has no influence on. Why is this so hard for you?
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