Chicago Fanatics Message Board
http://chicagofanatics.com/

Prediction Machine
http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=88346		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Kirkwood [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 6:14 am ]
Post subject:  Prediction Machine
During the 5AM-6AM (best hour on the Score) hour Paul Bashear (sp?) and his prediction machine hopped on. Gotten many winning plays from this cat. Want to say he was a mathematician for the Navy for something and created a statistical model for the NFL. Moment of truth......

Bears under 8.5 is his strongest play! :shock: :shock: :shock:

Said that and Giants over are the most obvious plays his system says. Last year system said preseason Super Bowl 49er vs Broncos and after Week 2 Seattle vs Broncos.

Putting his money where his mouth is and will be putting big play on the under. :shock:

System kicked out 7-9 57% of the time. Last in the division most often! Has offense around 13th points scored and defense at 30th. Uh oh Nas.
Author:  denisdman [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 6:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
So the Bears will lose by an average of 17 points? I think Ill go elsewhere for my predictions.
Author:  Kirkwood [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 6:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
He had Detroit at 8, Minnesota at 8 I think and Packers at 9. Second toughest division in football!

Main reasons he gave was defense got OLDER. Older = worse. Uses PFF, Football Outsiders as inputs for player ratings. Ssame stuff Emery believes is the bible. :shock:

Said the Bears have hardest schedule according to his projections in the divison. Bears were healthy team on offense and didn't need back-ups. This year back-ups are Palmer/Clausen, RB mash-up and Weems.

When 95% of the money is on the over and books guys say they're fine you know something is up. Sharps see the same thing.
Author:  bigfan [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
Just another reason the 5-6 am time is the best.

Have met Paul in Vegas and think they do a great job.

However, 57% in their system is still only a light or half play. Might be the best play, but nothing great.

Been watching all their numbers in terms of the total wins, nothing great.
Author:  Kirkwood [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
Essentially what Hub and Hanley are saying is this:
Quote:
Emery has done an excellent job building the team using analytics. But we don't believe Bashear's analytics even though they use some of the same inputs. *la la la la la la*
Author:  JORR [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
Kirkwood wrote:
Essentially what Hub and Hanley are saying is this:
Quote:
Emery has done an excellent job building the team using analytics. But we don't believe Bashear's analytics even though they use some of the same inputs. *la la la la la la*



That's generally the problem with analytics. A lot of times people don't care for what they're telling them and then suddenly those analytics don't count.
Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
bigfan wrote:
Just another reason the 5-6 am time is the best.
You have your bar set extremely low.
Author:  Dr. Kenneth Noisewater [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
Nothing gets the giggle machine that is Hub going like discussion of abuse and murder.
Author:  312player [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
I got the Bears @ 10-6 ...fuck this nerd.
Author:  redskingreg [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
denisdman wrote:
So the Bears will lose by an average of 17 points? I think Ill go elsewhere for my predictions.


:scratch: :scratch: :scratch:
Author:  Hank Scorpio [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
Poor Kirkwood is going to see the Bears win the superbowl this year and lose a lot of money.

Everyone is talking about the backup QBs being a liability this season as though everyone knew Josh McCown and his out of football piece of shit career was going be lights out last season in relief. Last season we were worried about the same thing... Stupid.
Author:  Kirkwood [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
Hell no, I'm not touching the Bears. Moreso than most teams they could be really good or really bad (relatively speaking). Though, I do see 7-9 more likely than 12-4.

San Francisco under 10.5 wins is a tastier under.
Author:  Hank Scorpio [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
Kirkwood wrote:
Hell no, I'm not touching the Bears. Moreso than most teams they could be really good or really bad (relatively speaking). Though, I do see 7-9 more likely than 12-4.

San Francisco under 10.5 wins is a tastier under.


The NFC west is so fucked. If you told me that Seatlle would finish last in that division, I would be surprised but could be convinced. That division is a total crapshoot as far as I'm concerned. I dont believe in any of the QBs but they all have great defenses.
Author:  bigfan [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
Essentially what Hub and Hanley are saying is this:
Quote:
Emery has done an excellent job building the team using analytics. But we don't believe Bashear's analytics even though they use some of the same inputs. *la la la la la la*



That's generally the problem with analytics. A lot of times people don't care for what they're telling them and then suddenly those analytics don't count.


Until Seattle destroys Denver like Paul B said would happen! before Super Bowl it was the largest descrepency between the line and his numbers in 15 years of following the Super Bowl with his program.

In the Bears favor is the hope that the increase play in defense will exceeds what he has programmed in. We don't know what that number is exactly, but to take a defense from last to even 15th is pretty amazing.

You could say the Bears were a 18th ranked defense if not for the injuries, but Briggs, Tillman, Peppers are injuries that you can predict due to age.

I wouldnt bet it either way
Author:  a retard [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
bigfan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
Essentially what Hub and Hanley are saying is this:
Quote:
Emery has done an excellent job building the team using analytics. But we don't believe Bashear's analytics even though they use some of the same inputs. *la la la la la la*



That's generally the problem with analytics. A lot of times people don't care for what they're telling them and then suddenly those analytics don't count.


Until Seattle destroys Denver like Paul B said would happen! before Super Bowl it was the largest descrepency between the line and his numbers in 15 years of following the Super Bowl with his program.

In the Bears favor is the hope that the increase play in defense will exceeds what he has programmed in. We don't know what that number is exactly, but to take a defense from last to even 15th is pretty amazing.

You could say the Bears were a 18th ranked defense if not for the injuries, but Briggs, Tillman, Peppers are injuries that you can predict due to age.

I wouldnt bet it either way


Given a choice I take the under. The logic that says defense has to be better also says there have to be more injuries on offense. Plus the schedule out of the gate is not fun. Bears have a decent shot at starting the season 1-5.
Author:  Curious Hair [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
I bought the Dan Bernstein Prediction Machine. I turned it on, it said "you can't expect this of me," and turned itself right back off again.
Author:  bigfan [ Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
Curious Hair wrote:
I bought the Dan Bernstein Prediction Machine. I turned it on, it said "you can't expect this of me," and turned itself right back off again.


Nice! If you left it on it would have spent 5 minutes explianing that it doesnt matter what he thinks because he cant control the outcome of the game, so why waste the time in making such a prediction. of course not acknowledging the fact that the 3 minutes he spends on explaining it, he could have used 5 seconds and made a pick.

Personally, cant trust a guy who wont pick a game for nothing.
Author:  Jaw Breaker [ Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
I'd bet the over 8.5 if it wasn't for the -145. Would rather bet an over of 9.5 at par...don't know why.
Author:  Peoria Matt [ Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
bigfan wrote:
Personally, cant trust a guy who wont pick a game for nothing.


There's just something weird about that. He either thinks he's above it or he doesn't want to be wrong. Even though he's whiffed on many other things.
Author:  bigfan [ Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Prediction Machine
I think Leary jumped on the "I am too cool to wager" bandwagon at some point as well. I could be wrong, but I thought that was one of his gigs.

At first it was him just being a little bitch, now he likes to take pride in his unwillingness to contribute to such low life activity!
Page 1 of 1 All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
https://www.phpbb.com/