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Joe Orr Road Rod
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:58 am 
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RFDC wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Thats great. Raines was a really good player.

But I do not see how anyone who actually watched them play could say that Raines was a more effective base stealer than Henderson.


:lol: Because his results speak for themselves. The numbers don't lie. Every time you get caught you diminish the return.


Game 7 of WS and you need a stolen base. Do you want Henderson or Raines on 1st base?


I will put you down for Henderson as well :D



There was a time when I thought Rickey was the greatest player I had ever seen. I'm certainly not saying Raines was the better player. But it's pretty clear that he was a more efficient base stealer.

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RFDC
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:01 pm 
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No it is not clear at all.

Answer the question. You need one base stolen in game 7 who you got?

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Hatchetman
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:07 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
But it's pretty clear that he was a more efficient base stealer.


Gus Zernial was better.

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Joe Orr Road Rod
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:09 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
No it is not clear at all.

Answer the question. You need one base stolen in game 7 who you got?



Probably Henderson. But I also understand there's a greater chance of him getting caught.

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Hatchetman
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 12:27 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
But I also understand there's a greater chance of him getting caught.


High leverage situations
SB CS %
Raines 303 62 83.01%
Henderson 427 84 83.56%

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:43 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
RFDC wrote:
No it is not clear at all.

Answer the question. You need one base stolen in game 7 who you got?



Probably Henderson. But I also understand there's a greater chance of him getting caught.


Not that I care either way, but why in the hell would you pick the guy that you admit has a better chance of getting thrown out?

That's like saying you'd rather play Russian roulette with a five chambered revolver as opposed to a six chambered revolver because you're a fan of prime numbers or some other nonsense.
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Joe Orr Road Rod
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:53 pm 
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One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
RFDC wrote:
No it is not clear at all.

Answer the question. You need one base stolen in game 7 who you got?



Probably Henderson. But I also understand there's a greater chance of him getting caught.


Not that I care either way, but why in the hell would you pick the guy that you admit has a better chance of getting thrown out?

That's like saying you'd rather play Russian roulette with a five chambered revolver as opposed to a six chambered revolver because you're a fan of prime numbers or some other nonsense.



Just because he has a lesser chance of being thrown out doesn't mean he also has a greater chance of stealing the base.

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Joe Orr Road Rod
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:53 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
But I also understand there's a greater chance of him getting caught.


High leverage situations
SB CS %
Raines 303 62 83.01%
Henderson 427 84 83.56%



What is a "high leverage" situation?

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Hatchetman
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:06 pm 
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Leverage Index

Within a game, there are plays that are more pivotal than others. We attempt to quantify these plays with a stat called leverage index (LI). LI looks at the possible changes in win probability in a given situation; situations where dramatic swings in win probability are possible (e.g. runner on second late in a tie game) have higher LIs than situations where there can be no large change in win probability (e.g. late innings of a 12-run blowout).

The stat is normalized so that on average the leverage is 1.00. In tense situations, the leverage is higher than 1.00 (up to about 10) and in low-tension situations, the leverage is between 0 and 1.0.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:17 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
RFDC wrote:
No it is not clear at all.

Answer the question. You need one base stolen in game 7 who you got?



Probably Henderson. But I also understand there's a greater chance of him getting caught.


Not that I care either way, but why in the hell would you pick the guy that you admit has a better chance of getting thrown out?

That's like saying you'd rather play Russian roulette with a five chambered revolver as opposed to a six chambered revolver because you're a fan of prime numbers or some other nonsense.



Just because he has a lesser chance of being thrown out doesn't mean he also has a greater chance of stealing the base.


It's a binary option...
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Hatchetman
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:17 pm 
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JORR is saying Raines might be too timid to go unless conditions are optimal.

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Joe Orr Road Rod
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:18 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
Leverage Index

Within a game, there are plays that are more pivotal than others. We attempt to quantify these plays with a stat called leverage index (LI). LI looks at the possible changes in win probability in a given situation; situations where dramatic swings in win probability are possible (e.g. runner on second late in a tie game) have higher LIs than situations where there can be no large change in win probability (e.g. late innings of a 12-run blowout).

The stat is normalized so that on average the leverage is 1.00. In tense situations, the leverage is higher than 1.00 (up to about 10) and in low-tension situations, the leverage is between 0 and 1.0.



Sounds like "clutch" to me. :lol: :lol:

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Joe Orr Road Rod
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:20 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
JORR is saying Raines might be too timid to go unless conditions are optimal.



I'm not saying he's timid, but a higher percentage suggests more selectivity regarding when to run. If we absolutely need the guy to move 90 feet as RFDC suggested, we obviously need a guy who is going to go. Jack Perconte is less likely to get caught than either of them, but he wouldn't be my go-to guy in such a situation.

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Joe Orr Road Rod
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:21 pm 
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One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
RFDC wrote:
No it is not clear at all.

Answer the question. You need one base stolen in game 7 who you got?



Probably Henderson. But I also understand there's a greater chance of him getting caught.


Not that I care either way, but why in the hell would you pick the guy that you admit has a better chance of getting thrown out?

That's like saying you'd rather play Russian roulette with a five chambered revolver as opposed to a six chambered revolver because you're a fan of prime numbers or some other nonsense.



Just because he has a lesser chance of being thrown out doesn't mean he also has a greater chance of stealing the base.


It's a binary option...


:lol: Uh, no.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 3:21 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
JORR is saying Raines might be too timid to go unless conditions are optimal.


That's not the hypo as I understand it. The guy on first is going whether it's Cecil Fielder, Henderson, or Raines.
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