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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:46 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
312player wrote:
Wilson is a huge pickup...



Not really. Just a lefty reliever with a high FIP who has been getting lucky. I'd look for regression to the mean.


I'm shocked you can look to advanced stats for a pitcher considering he has a sparkling 21-14 career record. The guy is a born winner.

Sarcasm aside, a fip of 3.2 or less the last 3 years is nothing to sneeze at. Good pick up.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:57 am 
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TurdFerguson wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
312player wrote:
Wilson is a huge pickup...



Not really. Just a lefty reliever with a high FIP who has been getting lucky. I'd look for regression to the mean.


I'm shocked you can look to advanced stats for a pitcher considering he has a sparkling 21-14 career record. The guy is a born winner.

Sarcasm aside, a fip of 3.2 or less the last 3 years is nothing to sneeze at. Good pick up.



Well, W/L record for a reliever actually is meaningless and always has been. I've never thought Roy Face had the best season of all time.

I was being a smartass. Wilson is decent reliver. But to think he's the piece that puts the Cubs over the top is pretty silly.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:07 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
312player wrote:
Wilson is a huge pickup...



Not really. Just a lefty reliever with a high FIP who has been getting lucky. I'd look for regression to the mean.


I'm shocked you can look to advanced stats for a pitcher considering he has a sparkling 21-14 career record. The guy is a born winner.

Sarcasm aside, a fip of 3.2 or less the last 3 years is nothing to sneeze at. Good pick up.



Well, W/L record for a reliever actually is meaningless and always has been. I've never thought Roy Face had the best season of all time.

I was being a smartass. Wilson is decent reliver. But to think he's the piece that puts the Cubs over the top is pretty silly.


I just couldn't resist going there. Agreed doesn't put the over the top, but it does shore up a need. And if nothing else, they will be a tough post season out.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:35 am 
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And rebounds don't matter for small forwards. And receiving yards don't matter for running backs.

Some statistic you got there if it cannot even be used for over 50% of pitchers.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:39 am 
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IMU wrote:
Some statistic you got there if it cannot even be used for over 50% of pitchers.
More than 50%. There are more relievers than starters.

As a self proclaimed baseball executive, you should realize that they are two completely different positions.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:50 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
IMU wrote:
Some statistic you got there if it cannot even be used for over 50% of pitchers.
More than 50%. There are more relievers than starters.

As a self proclaimed baseball executive, you should realize that they are two completely different positions.


Small forward is also a completely different position than center or power forward, but I would like strong rebounding from all three. I also need my running back to be able to catch a check-down in order to keep my drive alive.

ERA? works for nine innings. WHIP? works for nine innings. FIP? works for nine innings. K/BB works for nine innings.

W/L? Only works if you start the game, and you have to go five innings to get a win, but not a loss. And when your team's offense scores their runs significantly impacts this. Or your infielders can fuck up a routine ground ball into a sailed throw down the first base line, causing a runner to score all the way from 1B and you give up 0 ER but take a loss.

Pitcher W/L is the WORST stat in the history of modern sports.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:02 am 
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Wow, really thought Wilson was going to be the piece that put us favorites to sweep the Dodgers. I'm glad Bored Old Troll Rod was able to set me straight on that.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:04 am 
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I'm glad Bored Old Troll Rod was able to set me straight on that.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:06 am 
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All of those stats are different for starters and relievers. Baseball executives should know this.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:15 am 
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IMU wrote:
Some statistic you got there if it cannot even be used for over 50% of pitchers.


It's not a pertinent statistic for relievers. Neither is OBP or CS.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:17 am 
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IMU wrote:

ERA? works for nine innings. WHIP? works for nine innings. FIP? works for nine innings. K/BB works for nine innings.


:lol: Yeah, establishing a 0.00 ERA or a .97 WHIP while facing two batters per outing is exactly the same as a guy doing it over 24 outs.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:19 am 
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There is not one starter that averages 24 outs an outing.

See, your love for W/L always comes back to you believing starters pitch the entire game. Your nostalgia for 1970's baseball blinds you.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:28 am 
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IMU wrote:
There is not one starter that averages 24 outs an outing.

See, your love for W/L always comes back to you believing starters pitch the entire game. Your nostalgia for 1970's baseball blinds you.



There certainly have been some historically. But regardless, you can change it to 16 outs if you want.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:24 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Some statistic you got there if it cannot even be used for over 50% of pitchers.


It's not a pertinent statistic for relievers. Neither is OBP or CS.


You don't think the opposing team's OBP against a pitcher, of any role, is pertinent? :lol:


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:27 am 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Some statistic you got there if it cannot even be used for over 50% of pitchers.


It's not a pertinent statistic for relievers. Neither is OBP or CS.


You don't think the opposing team's OBP against a pitcher, of any role, is pertinent? :lol:


That's not OBP. That would be OBP against and it's contained in WHIP, which is used for pitchers. But you know all that and just wanted to make a snarky fucking comment.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:28 am 
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IMU wrote:
Pitcher W/L is the WORST stat in the history of modern sports.

That's a tough one. Saves and Fielding % are god awful too.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:28 am 
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OBP or CS does not appear on a reliever's (or any pitcher's) stat line.

W/L does.

Keyser Soze wrote:
IMU wrote:
Pitcher W/L is the WORST stat in the history of modern sports.

That's a tough one. Saves and Fielding % are god awful too.


I'm a reasonable guy. I'm more than willing to concede that out of hundreds of statistics in baseball, Pitcher W/L is in the "Top 3 Worst"

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:30 am 
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IMU wrote:
OBP or CS does not appear on a reliever's (or any pitcher's) stat line.

W/L does.


So what? Do you not know enough to figure out the difference between a guy who pitches to two batters a game and a guy who covers over half the outs?

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:31 am 
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IMU wrote:
OBP or CS does not appear on a reliever's (or any pitcher's) stat line.

W/L does.

Keyser Soze wrote:
IMU wrote:
Pitcher W/L is the WORST stat in the history of modern sports.

That's a tough one. Saves and Fielding % are god awful too.


I'm a reasonable guy. I'm more than willing to concede that out of hundreds of statistics in baseball, Pitcher W/L is in the "Top 3 Worst"



It's not though. If we didn't have W/L percentage people would think Jeff Samardzija was good. Some do anyway.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:33 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Some statistic you got there if it cannot even be used for over 50% of pitchers.


It's not a pertinent statistic for relievers. Neither is OBP or CS.


You don't think the opposing team's OBP against a pitcher, of any role, is pertinent? :lol:


That's not OBP. That would be OBP against and it's contained in WHIP, which is used for pitchers. But you know all that and just wanted to make a snarky fucking comment.


:lol: Keep doin' you, buddy.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:33 am 
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IMU wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
IMU wrote:
Some statistic you got there if it cannot even be used for over 50% of pitchers.
More than 50%. There are more relievers than starters.

As a self proclaimed baseball executive, you should realize that they are two completely different positions.


Small forward is also a completely different position than center or power forward, but I would like strong rebounding from all three. I also need my running back to be able to catch a check-down in order to keep my drive alive.

ERA? works for nine innings. WHIP? works for nine innings. FIP? works for nine innings. K/BB works for nine innings.

W/L? Only works if you start the game, and you have to go five innings to get a win, but not a loss. And when your team's offense scores their runs significantly impacts this. Or your infielders can fuck up a routine ground ball into a sailed throw down the first base line, causing a runner to score all the way from 1B and you give up 0 ER but take a loss.

Pitcher W/L is the WORST stat in the history of modern sports.


Followed by Goaltender W/L/OTL in hockey. You give up a goal on 43 shots against while your opponent shuts down your teams 17 shot effort...or you give up 4 goals on 23 shots (all soft goals) but your team scores 6 and you get the W. I have to agree with IMU here.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:35 am 
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Harvard Dan wrote:
I have to agree with IMU here.


Then you're both wrong. The starting pitcher's W/L percentage show how he performed vs. the other pitchers he faced within the context of the games he pitched. And that's really all that matters. We don't get to squirrel away the extra runs scored when we win 12-2 and use eight of them on the day Jose Quintana allows six.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:36 am 
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Nah, his (Samardzija's) SLG against and his BAbip are way up because he is too over the plate and grooves fastballs in, as he now refuses to walk people. So yeah, he has a nice K/BB since he doesn't walk anyone, but the dude gives up more than a hit per inning, and those aren't singles.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:38 am 
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IMU wrote:
Nah, his (Samardzija's) SLG against and his BAbip are way up because he is too over the plate and grooves fastballs in, as he now refuses to walk people. So yeah, he has a nice K/BB since he doesn't walk anyone, but the dude gives up more than a hit per inning, and those aren't singles.


You've just erased the entire thesis behind the usage of BABIP.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:40 am 
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Incorrect.

Quote:
c) Talent Level – The harder a ball is hit, the more likely it is to fall in for a hit so a better hitter will usually have a higher BABIP than a worse hitter and a worse pitcher will usually have a slightly higher BABIP than a better pitcher given a sufficient sample size. A good hitter might be able to register a hit on 35% of their balls in play with consistency, but BABIP fluctuates quite a bit based on defense and luck so using it to capture true talent can be tricky even if true talent does influence the number.


You cannot continue to shit on all of these advanced statistics and claim other people are incorrect when it is you that does not understand them.

Additionally, Jose Quintana has only faced an opposing pitcher 36 times in his career. Here are those results:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... dard::none

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:43 am 
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:43 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
The starting pitcher's W/L percentage show how he performed vs. the other pitchers he faced within the context of the games he pitched

Image


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:44 am 
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Pitchers w/l is a made up stat. It didn't happen in the game. The team won the game. You can see that in the final score. How did an individual also win the game? Where did the extra win come from? Did they play 2 games? Of course not because it's made up and based on some bullshit made up criteria. It tells you absolutely nothing about how the pitcher performed in that game.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:45 am 
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IMU wrote:
Incorrect.

Quote:
c) Talent Level – The harder a ball is hit, the more likely it is to fall in for a hit so a better hitter will usually have a higher BABIP than a worse hitter and a worse pitcher will usually have a slightly higher BABIP than a better pitcher given a sufficient sample size. A good hitter might be able to register a hit on 35% of their balls in play with consistency, but BABIP fluctuates quite a bit based on defense and luck so using it to capture true talent can be tricky even if true talent does influence the number.


You cannot continue to shit on all of these advanced statistics and claim other people are incorrect when it is you that does not understand them.

Additionally, Jose Quintana has only faced an opposing pitcher 36 times in his career. Here are those results:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... dard::none


You don't understand them and that is obvious to anyone who does based on what you just said about Samardzija's BABIP. Argue with Caller Bob. You guys are on the same level. I'll stick with Juice.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:47 am 
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:lol: :lol:

Poor JORR. Doesn't understand how a bad pitcher could have a higher BAbip and how SLG% is connected to it, even when quoted from a Fangraphs article.

Jeff Samardzija's career BAbip is .300. Exactly in the middle of the expected range of a pitcher for his career. This year, he is much higher. But he still plays for the Giants, and they have a fantastic defense. Luck? Sure, it could be luck, but you don't believe in that. You've told us this many times.

So what else could cause BAbip to fluctuate 30 points higher? Harder contact. And that contact is documented in Samardzija's insanely high .470+ SLG against in 2017. His very low BB% rate also indicated Samardzija is around the plate far more often, and therefore hitters have a much easier time making solid contact.

This is very simple stuff.

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Last edited by IMU on Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

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