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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:10 pm 
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IMU wrote:
It is flawed. It judges one player when he only contributes 33% to that result. Additionally, a pitcher pitches to hitters. Not one single portion of W/L shows how a pitcher fared in that.
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Are you arguing that Samardzija is unluckier this season or that he is getting hit harder? It's hard to tell.

It is easy to tell. It is all in the numbers.


Are the locations of batted balls random or not? Do you understand the whole concept of DIPS? Because it doesn't seem as if you do.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:10 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
IMU wrote:
It is flawed. It judges one player when he only contributes 33% to that result. Additionally, a pitcher pitches to hitters. Not one single portion of W/L shows how a pitcher fared in that.
In one specific game, sure this might be the case.

Over the course of 100, 200, 300 career starts, its flawed to ignore the W-L record.

No, a pitcher pitches to hitters in all games.

This isn't flipping a coin. 500 GS instead of 1 GS isn't going to solve the issue of W/L not analyzing how a pitcher deals with getting hitters out. A pitcher has no ability to get himself a win.

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Last edited by IMU on Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:11 pm 
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Cub with two very good trades
They were always going to win the division. Now they have the pitching they need for the playoffs. Tiger got fleeced in that deal sending two solid controllable pieces. Just calling a spade a spade Gents.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:11 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
IMU wrote:
It is flawed. It judges one player when he only contributes 33% to that result. Additionally, a pitcher pitches to hitters. Not one single portion of W/L shows how a pitcher fared in that.
In one specific game, sure this might be the case.

Over the course of 100, 200, 300 career starts, its flawed to ignore the W-L record.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:11 pm 
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IMU wrote:
It is flawed.

No, it isn't. It's objective is to determine how a starting pitcher fared against another starting pitcher. It accomplishes its objective. Like any other stat, a small sample size will lead to error in analysis.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:12 pm 
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IMU wrote:
No, a pitcher pitches to hitters in all games.


No shit. Pitchers pitch to hitters and hitters hit pitchers. One man's "run support" is another man's earned runs.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:14 pm 
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It's flawed, as in all stats are flawed if you look that one stat in a vacuum.

And most people devolve to one stat or another via confirmation bias shows what they are looking to find; which is also problem in the scientific community.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:14 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
No, a pitcher pitches to hitters in all games.


No shit. Pitchers pitch to hitters and hitters hit pitchers. One man's "run support" is another man's earned runs.

No statistic that rewards a pitcher for giving up 6 ER in 5 innings will ever be a good indicator of performance. Ever.

I know that pitcher pitched poorly. You don't.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:15 pm 
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Sonny Gray to Yanks for some underwhealming prospects. Rat turds, I wish we got in on that.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:17 pm 
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Apologist wrote:
Cub with two very good trades
They were always going to win the division. Now they have the pitching they need for the playoffs. Tiger got fleeced in that deal sending two solid controllable pieces. Just calling a spade a spade Gents.


I'm backing off this slightly upon further developments.
Avila is not controlled and the reports have cash going to the Tigers. If they picked up a couple million in cash that would be substantial.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:17 pm 
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Apologist wrote:
Apologist wrote:
Cub with two very good trades
They were always going to win the division. Now they have the pitching they need for the playoffs. Tiger got fleeced in that deal sending two solid controllable pieces. Just calling a spade a spade Gents.


I'm backing off this slightly upon further developments.
Avila is not controlled and the reports have cash going to the Tigers. If they picked up a couple million in cash that would be substantial.


It's the fucking Cubs. Who cares about a couple million.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:18 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
No, a pitcher pitches to hitters in all games.


No shit. Pitchers pitch to hitters and hitters hit pitchers. One man's "run support" is another man's earned runs.

No statistic that rewards a pitcher for giving up 6 ER in 5 innings will ever be a good indicator of performance. Ever.

I know that pitcher pitched poorly. You don't.


I don't see the starting pitcher's win as a "reward". It shows exactly what it's supposed to show. That he was the best pitcher in a particular game. I'm pretty sure you can't find too many guys with 10.80 ERAs and winning records, so your example is a little silly.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:20 pm 
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IMU wrote:
No statistic that rewards a pitcher for giving up 6 ER in 5 innings will ever be a good indicator of performance. Ever.

I know that pitcher pitched poorly. You don't.

JLN posted all these graphs and charts and Venn diagrams and Tsquares and formulas and all this crap that showed Quintana didn't win because he lacked run support.

I have seen MANY Quintana games for the Sox where he gets a lead, and then gives runs right back. He has had some so called "tough luck" no decisions, and he had some no decisions where he gave up 4 and 5 runs, even though his "run support" was as much as what he gave up.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:22 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
IMU wrote:
No statistic that rewards a pitcher for giving up 6 ER in 5 innings will ever be a good indicator of performance. Ever.

I know that pitcher pitched poorly. You don't.

JLN posted all these graphs and charts and Venn diagrams and Tsquares and formulas and all this crap that showed Quintana didn't win because he lacked run support.

I have seen MANY Quintana games for the Sox where he gets a lead, and then gives runs right back. He has had some so called "tough luck" no decisions, and he had some no decisions where he gave up 4 and 5 runs, even though his "run support" was as much as what he gave up.


This basically reads: I'm too stupid to analyze an intellectual analysis so here is my "from the hip" analysis, now excuse me while I put some farts in jars.hehehe


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:23 pm 
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Thank you for your input.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:24 pm 
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Caller Bob wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
IMU wrote:
No statistic that rewards a pitcher for giving up 6 ER in 5 innings will ever be a good indicator of performance. Ever.

I know that pitcher pitched poorly. You don't.

JLN posted all these graphs and charts and Venn diagrams and Tsquares and formulas and all this crap that showed Quintana didn't win because he lacked run support.

I have seen MANY Quintana games for the Sox where he gets a lead, and then gives runs right back. He has had some so called "tough luck" no decisions, and he had some no decisions where he gave up 4 and 5 runs, even though his "run support" was as much as what he gave up.


This basically reads: I'm too stupid to analyze an intellectual analysis so here is my "from the hip" analysis, now excuse me while I put some farts in jars.hehehe

I don't think a lot of people come here for a math debate.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:27 pm 
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Apologist wrote:
Apologist wrote:
Cub with two very good trades
They were always going to win the division. Now they have the pitching they need for the playoffs. Tiger got fleeced in that deal sending two solid controllable pieces. Just calling a spade a spade Gents.


I'm backing off this slightly upon further developments.
Avila is not controlled and the reports have cash going to the Tigers. If they picked up a couple million in cash that would be substantial.



They don't need Avila under control. In fact, after hearing Hoyer the other day, I'm certain they feel Caratini is better than any catcher they were going to trade for. The point is, at this point in his development they want Caratini getting consistent at-bats and Contreras is going to be doing the lion's share of the catching.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:28 pm 
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Shawn Estes, in almost 300 starts, had a winning record with a career 90 ERA+. Was he better than Pat Dobson?

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:30 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Shawn Estes, in almost 300 starts, had a winning record with a career 90 ERA+. Was he better than Pat Dobson?



Was Murry Dickson better than Catfish Hunter?

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:31 pm 
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Apologist wrote:
Cub with two very good trades
They were always going to win the division. Now they have the pitching they need for the playoffs. Tiger got fleeced in that deal sending two solid controllable pieces. Just calling a spade a spade Gents.


Avila isn't controlled. He signed a one year contract this year and is well beyond his arbitration years. I'm not sure you would want him for a whole year anyway as he played in 124 games combined the previous two years, hit about .200, is going to be 31 and is heavily concussed.

The Cubbies received two players but it was hardly a fleecing. Candalerio is a top 100 prospect and Paredes was the apple of Theo's eye just a week ago when he reassured everyone how stocked his minor league system still is. Those are two guys who project to be MLB players on the left side of the infield for a reliever and a backup catcher. It is the kind of trade a team with an open window makes but makes with a little regret as to its long term future, just like the Chapman trade.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:32 pm 
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Candalerio is not a top 100 prospect. if he's still in any, he will be flushed out next ranking. He's a AAAA player.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:34 pm 
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Caller Bob wrote:
Candalerio is not a top 100 prospect.



At least now that he's no longer a Cub he's not.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:34 pm 
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Caller Bob wrote:
Candalerio is not a top 100 prospect.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:36 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Caller Bob wrote:
Candalerio is not a top 100 prospect.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

if he's still in any, he will be flushed out next ranking.

Keep reading, top to bottom, left to right.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:37 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Caller Bob wrote:
Candalerio is not a top 100 prospect.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

I'm too stupid to analyze an intellectual analysis so here is my "from the hip" analysis, now excuse me while I put some farts in jars

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:38 pm 
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Candelario is going to be a decent MLB player.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:39 pm 
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Caller Bob wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Caller Bob wrote:
Candalerio is not a top 100 prospect.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

if he's still in any, he will be flushed out next ranking.

Keep reading, top to bottom, left to right.

You sure get flustered when proven factually wrong

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:39 pm 
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Caller Bob wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Caller Bob wrote:
Candalerio is not a top 100 prospect.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

if he's still in any, he will be flushed out next ranking.

Keep reading, top to bottom, left to right.


and, when do you think the last ranking came out...I'll give you a hint, this isn't going to go well for Caller Bob

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:39 pm 
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He was last ranked 92nd. He's about to be very old for AAA, where he's putting up OK numbers. There is your analysis. Of course you are the dumb asses that get excited because AAA Fulmer is still a "Top 100 prospect"


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:40 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Caller Bob wrote:
Candalerio is not a top 100 prospect.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects

I'm too stupid to analyze an intellectual analysis so here is my "from the hip" analysis, now excuse me while I put some farts in jars


Image

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