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Food for thought
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Author:  good dolphin [ Wed Oct 18, 2023 8:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
When three of your long term heart of the order guys are bad to mediocre, there's not much you can do about that short of getting a new heart of the order.


I just don't think you can junk those guys after you tanked to get them. And I know Moncada is frustrating, but circumstances have to fall right. He'll quite likely end up with a better career than Javy Baez who is a Cub legend. You just need guys to play well at the right time and avoid injury. It's easier said than done.

I don't think it's absurd to believe that you can get 12 WAR from Moncada-Robert-Jimenez in the next year or two. If you get that you're probably going to have a decent team. If you put the right players around them, you could have a really good team. A lot of ifs, I know. But it's a funny game and there are no sure things. I remember when Kris Bryant was a guaranteed first ballot Hall of Famer. Now it looks like he's Kevin Youkilis.


My guess is they hold on to all of them and cross their fingers. I would like to see them trade Vaughn and Jimenez for somebody else's underperforming players and see if that shakes anything up. I think if they got a combined WAR of six out of Jimenez, Moncada, and Vaughn next year, they would be lucky.


I think that's what you have to do. It's not like these guys are complete busts. They've shown they can hit in the big leagues. They just need to put it together at the same time.

And I don't think any of these bums should be untouchable. Not even Robert. If the right deal is there, move them.

It isn't easy to win a World Series. You have to try to win one every year. When you fantasize about tanking followed by dynasty, that's usually what it is- a fantasy. Look at the Cub juggernaut.

That's why it's a mistake to look at your "bright future." There is no future in baseball. It's a funny game. Next year you'll probably lose to the Twins. You have to do EVERYTHING possible to win when you have a chance. You don't sit Strasburg while fantasizing about all his future Cy Youngs and your future World Series wins. You don't hang on to Jackson Holliday when Dylan Cease or Justin Verlander could have won you the World Series this year.


The Indians were darlings of baseball last year, winning baseball games the right way. They were terrible this year
Author:  Nardi [ Wed Oct 18, 2023 9:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
When three of your long term heart of the order guys are bad to mediocre, there's not much you can do about that short of getting a new heart of the order.


I just don't think you can junk those guys after you tanked to get them. And I know Moncada is frustrating, but circumstances have to fall right. He'll quite likely end up with a better career than Javy Baez who is a Cub legend. You just need guys to play well at the right time and avoid injury. It's easier said than done.

I don't think it's absurd to believe that you can get 12 WAR from Moncada-Robert-Jimenez in the next year or two. If you get that you're probably going to have a decent team. If you put the right players around them, you could have a really good team. A lot of ifs, I know. But it's a funny game and there are no sure things. I remember when Kris Bryant was a guaranteed first ballot Hall of Famer. Now it looks like he's Kevin Youkilis.


My guess is they hold on to all of them and cross their fingers. I would like to see them trade Vaughn and Jimenez for somebody else's underperforming players and see if that shakes anything up. I think if they got a combined WAR of six out of Jimenez, Moncada, and Vaughn next year, they would be lucky.


I think that's what you have to do. It's not like these guys are complete busts. They've shown they can hit in the big leagues. They just need to put it together at the same time.

And I don't think any of these bums should be untouchable. Not even Robert. If the right deal is there, move them.

It isn't easy to win a World Series. You have to try to win one every year. When you fantasize about tanking followed by dynasty, that's usually what it is- a fantasy. Look at the Cub juggernaut.

That's why it's a mistake to look at your "bright future." There is no future in baseball. It's a funny game. Next year you'll probably lose to the Twins. You have to do EVERYTHING possible to win when you have a chance. You don't sit Strasburg while fantasizing about all his future Cy Youngs and your future World Series wins. You don't hang on to Jackson Holliday when Dylan Cease or Justin Verlander could have won you the World Series this year.

Yikes
Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I think that's what you have to do. It's not like these guys are complete busts. They've shown they can hit in the big leagues. They just need to put it together at the same time.
At some point, they are what they are. Yes they are big league players that can hit for stretches. Of the main prospects the Sox acquired in the Sale, Eaton, and Quintana trades, Only Robert has put it all together for a full year and that only happened one time. With the arms, you had one great year out of Cease and Giolito with some other good runs here and there, but mostly they were #3 and #4 guys on a Championship caliber starting rotation.

They aren't busts, but clearly none of them panned out to be good enough to win a playoff series, much less a Championship or be a dynasty.
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
You don't hang on to Jackson Holliday when Dylan Cease or Justin Verlander could have won you the World Series this year.

Yikes


It probably wouldn't have even taken Jackson Holliday. Baltimore could have given themselves a much better chance of winning the World Series THIS YEAR if they had been willing to move some of their vaunted prospects. Instead they're fantasizing about a "dynasty" as if the Yankees and Red Sox are just going to let them do that. Not to mention there are only nine spots in the batting order. Even if every prospect turns out great, you can't really use them all.
Author:  Nardi [ Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
You don't hang on to Jackson Holliday when Dylan Cease or Justin Verlander could have won you the World Series this year.

Yikes


It probably wouldn't have even taken Jackson Holliday.


I get where you are coming from. You just got a bit over your skis on Holliday. I'd pack Cease's shit myself.
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Wed Oct 18, 2023 11:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
You don't hang on to Jackson Holliday when Dylan Cease or Justin Verlander could have won you the World Series this year.

Yikes


It probably wouldn't have even taken Jackson Holliday.


I get where you are coming from. You just got a bit over your skis on Holliday. I'd pack Cease's shit myself.



I think Cease would have been a good move for Baltimore. They have a good young core and he has ace potential as they hit their peak. Plus he was probably better than all their pitchers other than Bradish. Certainly A LOT better than their deadline pickup of Flaherty. But they could have also gone for the tried and true with Verlander. Either way, they blew what might have been their best chance in order to hoard prospects.
Author:  Chet Coppock's Fur Coat [ Wed Oct 18, 2023 11:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
When three of your long term heart of the order guys are bad to mediocre, there's not much you can do about that short of getting a new heart of the order.


I just don't think you can junk those guys after you tanked to get them. And I know Moncada is frustrating, but circumstances have to fall right. He'll quite likely end up with a better career than Javy Baez who is a Cub legend. You just need guys to play well at the right time and avoid injury. It's easier said than done.

I don't think it's absurd to believe that you can get 12 WAR from Moncada-Robert-Jimenez in the next year or two. If you get that you're probably going to have a decent team. If you put the right players around them, you could have a really good team. A lot of ifs, I know. But it's a funny game and there are no sure things. I remember when Kris Bryant was a guaranteed first ballot Hall of Famer. Now it looks like he's Kevin Youkilis.


My guess is they hold on to all of them and cross their fingers. I would like to see them trade Vaughn and Jimenez for somebody else's underperforming players and see if that shakes anything up. I think if they got a combined WAR of six out of Jimenez, Moncada, and Vaughn next year, they would be lucky.


I think that's what you have to do. It's not like these guys are complete busts. They've shown they can hit in the big leagues. They just need to put it together at the same time.

And I don't think any of these bums should be untouchable. Not even Robert. If the right deal is there, move them.

It isn't easy to win a World Series. You have to try to win one every year. When you fantasize about tanking followed by dynasty, that's usually what it is- a fantasy. Look at the Cub juggernaut.

That's why it's a mistake to look at your "bright future." There is no future in baseball. It's a funny game. Next year you'll probably lose to the Twins. You have to do EVERYTHING possible to win when you have a chance. You don't sit Strasburg while fantasizing about all his future Cy Youngs and your future World Series wins. You don't hang on to Jackson Holliday when Dylan Cease or Justin Verlander could have won you the World Series this year.

They don't have to trade Holliday, they have 3-4 young pieces at AA/AAA who could have been packaged to easily get Cease. But Baltimore's owner doesn't really care about winning the World Series, he is going to trade guys when they hit four years of service time and "reload" and he's happy just being profitable with a low payroll and occasionally making the playoffs.
Author:  The Hawk [ Wed Oct 18, 2023 5:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
I think that the O's were a year away and were smart not to trade their young talent. Theygot a taste of what contending is all about and should be the favorite to win it all next season. A top of the line starting pitcher and a good veteran infielder in the middle of the order along with a good veteran 2nd catcher and they will be a solid team for the next 5-6 years at least.
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
The Hawk wrote:
I think that the O's were a year away and were smart not to trade their young talent. Theygot a taste of what contending is all about and should be the favorite to win it all next season. A top of the line starting pitcher and a good veteran infielder in the middle of the order along with a good veteran 2nd catcher and they will be a solid team for the next 5-6 years at least.



I would bet a lot of money they don't win the AL East next year.
Author:  casual fan [ Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
The Hawk wrote:
I think that the O's were a year away and were smart not to trade their young talent. Theygot a taste of what contending is all about and should be the favorite to win it all next season. A top of the line starting pitcher and a good veteran infielder in the middle of the order along with a good veteran 2nd catcher and they will be a solid team for the next 5-6 years at least.


Sounds similar to the 2020/2021 White Sox. Hope it works out for the O's.....

Obviously, there are teams doing a much better job than others building a solid franchise, but baseball just has so much randomness/sorcery/fuckery when it comes to winning it all, that I've given up on the "solid team for 5-6 years" thoughts.
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Thu Oct 19, 2023 10:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
casual fan wrote:
The Hawk wrote:
I think that the O's were a year away and were smart not to trade their young talent. Theygot a taste of what contending is all about and should be the favorite to win it all next season. A top of the line starting pitcher and a good veteran infielder in the middle of the order along with a good veteran 2nd catcher and they will be a solid team for the next 5-6 years at least.


Sounds similar to the 2020/2021 White Sox. Hope it works out for the O's.....

Obviously, there are teams doing a much better job than others building a solid franchise, but baseball just has so much randomness/sorcery/fuckery when it comes to winning it all, that I've given up on the "solid team for 5-6 years" thoughts.



Yep. It's a funny game.
Author:  Zippy-The-Pinhead [ Thu Oct 19, 2023 12:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
Nardi wrote:
I'd pack Cease's shit myself.
Is that a euphemism?
Author:  Zippy-The-Pinhead [ Thu Oct 19, 2023 12:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
Apologies to GD.
Author:  Zippy-The-Pinhead [ Thu Oct 19, 2023 12:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I think that's what you have to do. It's not like these guys are complete busts. They've shown they can hit in the big leagues. They just need to put it together at the same time.
At some point, they are what they are. Yes they are big league players that can hit for stretches. Of the main prospects the Sox acquired in the Sale, Eaton, and Quintana trades, Only Robert has put it all together for a full year and that only happened one time. With the arms, you had one great year out of Cease and Giolito with some other good runs here and there, but mostly they were #3 and #4 guys on a Championship caliber starting rotation.

They aren't busts, but clearly none of them panned out to be good enough to win a playoff series, much less a Championship or be a dynasty.

I get your point but Moncada put it together in 2019. I had high hopes for him the next 2 seasons, but it’s the Sox so I should have known better.
Author:  The Hawk [ Thu Oct 19, 2023 1:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
good dolphin wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
When three of your long term heart of the order guys are bad to mediocre, there's not much you can do about that short of getting a new heart of the order.


I just don't think you can junk those guys after you tanked to get them. And I know Moncada is frustrating, but circumstances have to fall right. He'll quite likely end up with a better career than Javy Baez who is a Cub legend. You just need guys to play well at the right time and avoid injury. It's easier said than done.

I don't think it's absurd to believe that you can get 12 WAR from Moncada-Robert-Jimenez in the next year or two. If you get that you're probably going to have a decent team. If you put the right players around them, you could have a really good team. A lot of ifs, I know. But it's a funny game and there are no sure things. I remember when Kris Bryant was a guaranteed first ballot Hall of Famer. Now it looks like he's Kevin Youkilis.


My guess is they hold on to all of them and cross their fingers. I would like to see them trade Vaughn and Jimenez for somebody else's underperforming players and see if that shakes anything up. I think if they got a combined WAR of six out of Jimenez, Moncada, and Vaughn next year, they would be lucky.


I think that's what you have to do. It's not like these guys are complete busts. They've shown they can hit in the big leagues. They just need to put it together at the same time.

And I don't think any of these bums should be untouchable. Not even Robert. If the right deal is there, move them.

It isn't easy to win a World Series. You have to try to win one every year. When you fantasize about tanking followed by dynasty, that's usually what it is- a fantasy. Look at the Cub juggernaut.

That's why it's a mistake to look at your "bright future." There is no future in baseball. It's a funny game. Next year you'll probably lose to the Twins. You have to do EVERYTHING possible to win when you have a chance. You don't sit Strasburg while fantasizing about all his future Cy Youngs and your future World Series wins. You don't hang on to Jackson Holliday when Dylan Cease or Justin Verlander could have won you the World Series this year.


The Indians were darlings of baseball last year, winning baseball games the right way. They were terrible this year



I give the Indians credit though. They at least had some guys on that team that played balls out and had a good manager. They had less "talent" than the White Sox and Twins and talent does mean something. Unfortunately for the Sox, they were mismanaged and too many of their players were just filling out space in the dugout and waiting for a paycheck.
Author:  Frank Coztansa [ Thu Oct 19, 2023 1:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
I meant 'put it together' while in the so called Championship window. Sure, Moncada had a good 2019, but thats four seasons ago. its easy to be 'the guy' on a 90 loss team.

Also the centerpiece of a trade that involves sending away one of the greatest Sox pitchers ever-- certainly the Sox best in the 4 & 5 man starting rotation era-- you have to get back a guy who is going to up better similarity scores than this;
Quote:
Similar Batters

Ryan McMahon (952.0)
Jeimer Candelario (944.7)
Kevin Kouzmanoff (941.8)
Felix Mantilla (938.4)
Trevor Plouffe (938.1)
Brandon Drury (935.8)
Jim Leyritz (934.6)
Butch Hobson (933.3)
Yangervis Solarte (933.2)
Jedd Gyorko (931.6)
Author:  The Hawk [ Thu Oct 19, 2023 4:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
The Hawk wrote:
I think that the O's were a year away and were smart not to trade their young talent. Theygot a taste of what contending is all about and should be the favorite to win it all next season. A top of the line starting pitcher and a good veteran infielder in the middle of the order along with a good veteran 2nd catcher and they will be a solid team for the next 5-6 years at least.



I would bet a lot of money they don't win the AL East next year.


Who do you think will win it?
Author:  The Hawk [ Thu Oct 19, 2023 4:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Food for thought
Zippy-The-Pinhead wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I think that's what you have to do. It's not like these guys are complete busts. They've shown they can hit in the big leagues. They just need to put it together at the same time.
At some point, they are what they are. Yes they are big league players that can hit for stretches. Of the main prospects the Sox acquired in the Sale, Eaton, and Quintana trades, Only Robert has put it all together for a full year and that only happened one time. With the arms, you had one great year out of Cease and Giolito with some other good runs here and there, but mostly they were #3 and #4 guys on a Championship caliber starting rotation.

They aren't busts, but clearly none of them panned out to be good enough to win a playoff series, much less a Championship or be a dynasty.

I get your point but Moncada put it together in 2019. I had high hopes for him the next 2 seasons, but it’s the Sox so I should have known better.



I think that Moncada is pretty much a dog.
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