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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:13 pm 
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1) I did not introduce situational hitting into this argument.

2) Advanced metrics are smarter ways of identifying and presenting events that happen on the baseball field. They are more accurate in describing how a player's PA's (via wRC+) or overall game (via WAR) contribute to a team's success.

I get it that you don't like it. That you don't understand it. But it is something that cannot be denied, same as I cannot deny that Jose Abreu has driven in 100 runs this season.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:17 pm 
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Advanced or traditional stats, using only ONE number to judge a player's worth is stupidity. Cannot be denied.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:18 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Wouldn't I want a 11% better hitter RISP come playoff time? Wouldn't anybody?


I think IMU may be suggesting that the fact Abreu hits so much better with RISP is just luck or happenstance. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. But BABIP is a pitcher's stat. It doesn't necessarily "normalize" around .300 for individual batters.


Baseball experts have argued this for decades namely, why certain guys hit better or worse with RISP. Some of it is just plain luck I believe. I think most players today do not change their approach with a guy in scoring position and any change in "production" is just pure luck. Some players, however, do change their approach and I believe Abreu is one of these. I think that he intentionally tries to drive the ball to the right side of the field with a guy on 2nd and no outs for example. I also think that he changes his approach with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs where he tries to hit a fly ball to the outfield.

In those regards, Abreu is more of an old school type of hitter versus the guys who really only are thinking about their personal stats. Also, some players just cannot do what Abreu does because they simply do not have the bat control that he has and it would mess them up trying to do what they aren't equipped to do.

I like watching Abreu hit because he is a true professional hitter and if you watch him closely you can see his mind working depending on the pitcher, the situation, the defensive set-up, the count, etc. It is obvious and fun to watch.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:22 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Except Abreu comes up to the plate 3 times as much with bases empty or just 1 guy on first than he does with RISP. And he is a worse hitter in those scenarios. Wouldn't you want a better hitter 3 out of 4 times instead of 1 out of 4 times? Over the course of a season, now that the White Sox have more than just one really effective hitter, wouldn't you score more runs by putting more runners on and letting other hitters also have opportunities to drive in runs?

Insert Rizzo into the White Sox 2019 lineup instead of Abreu, keep everything else the same, and your team has scored more runs and won more games.

Team health versus back of the baseball card.


Pure speculation. And who is Rizzo? Some greaser's girlfriend? Sox fans do not give a shit about some bums on the north side.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:29 pm 
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The Hawk wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Wouldn't I want a 11% better hitter RISP come playoff time? Wouldn't anybody?


I think IMU may be suggesting that the fact Abreu hits so much better with RISP is just luck or happenstance. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. But BABIP is a pitcher's stat. It doesn't necessarily "normalize" around .300 for individual batters.


Baseball experts have argued this for decades namely, why certain guys hit better or worse with RISP. Some of it is just plain luck I believe. I think most players today do not change their approach with a guy in scoring position and any change in "production" is just pure luck. Some players, however, do change their approach and I believe Abreu is one of these. I think that he intentionally tries to drive the ball to the right side of the field with a guy on 2nd and no outs for example. I also think that he changes his approach with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs where he tries to hit a fly ball to the outfield.

In those regards, Abreu is more of an old school type of hitter versus the guys who really only are thinking about their personal stats. Also, some players just cannot do what Abreu does because they simply do not have the bat control that he has and it would mess them up trying to do what they aren't equipped to do.

I like watching Abreu hit because he is a true professional hitter and if you watch him closely you can see his mind working depending on the pitcher, the situation, the defensive set-up, the count, etc. It is obvious and fun to watch.

I find him to be a weird hitter. He's wildly inconsistent. I'm on fence for a couple reasons. Everybodys' power numbers are up because of the juiced ball and my concern isn't the past or even this year. It's 2021 when theoretically there's a legit shot for the WS.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:37 pm 
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Inconsistent? The "baseball messiah" told me that Abreu is 'remarkably consistent'

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:44 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Inconsistent? The "baseball messiah" told me that Abreu is 'remarkably consistent'

I did. In that he will always go back and forth between hot stretches and cold stretches. And when it all averages out...he is approx. an .800 OPS hitter. He was last year. He is this year.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:46 pm 
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Nardi wrote:
The Hawk wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Wouldn't I want a 11% better hitter RISP come playoff time? Wouldn't anybody?


I think IMU may be suggesting that the fact Abreu hits so much better with RISP is just luck or happenstance. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. But BABIP is a pitcher's stat. It doesn't necessarily "normalize" around .300 for individual batters.


Baseball experts have argued this for decades namely, why certain guys hit better or worse with RISP. Some of it is just plain luck I believe. I think most players today do not change their approach with a guy in scoring position and any change in "production" is just pure luck. Some players, however, do change their approach and I believe Abreu is one of these. I think that he intentionally tries to drive the ball to the right side of the field with a guy on 2nd and no outs for example. I also think that he changes his approach with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs where he tries to hit a fly ball to the outfield.

In those regards, Abreu is more of an old school type of hitter versus the guys who really only are thinking about their personal stats. Also, some players just cannot do what Abreu does because they simply do not have the bat control that he has and it would mess them up trying to do what they aren't equipped to do.

I like watching Abreu hit because he is a true professional hitter and if you watch him closely you can see his mind working depending on the pitcher, the situation, the defensive set-up, the count, etc. It is obvious and fun to watch.


I find him to be a weird hitter. He's wildly inconsistent. I'm on fence for a couple reasons. Everybodys' power numbers are up because of the juiced ball and my concern isn't the past or even this year. It's 2021 when theoretically there's a legit shot for the WS.


I have no idea why you consider him a "weird" hitter. He reminds me as a hitter of Paulie. How is Abreu weird? I think as a whole he has been consistently a very good over-all major league middle of the order hitter in his major league career. Good batting average, good home-runs, very good RBIs. What is "weird" about those numbers? He is streaky. A lot of players are streaky even the great ones.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:52 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Advanced or traditional stats, using only ONE number to judge a player's worth is stupidity. Cannot be denied.

But if there were one, what would it be?


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:59 pm 
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tommy wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Advanced or traditional stats, using only ONE number to judge a player's worth is stupidity. Cannot be denied.

But if there were one, what would it be?


Middle Players: WAR
Corner Players: oWAR
Starting Pitchers: W/L %
Relief Pitchers: WHIP

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:27 pm 
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IMU wrote:
he will always go back and forth between hot stretches and cold stretches.
Then he is not remarkably consistent.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:35 pm 
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tommy wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Advanced or traditional stats, using only ONE number to judge a player's worth is stupidity. Cannot be denied.

But if there were one, what would it be?


There is none, especially when one considers the worth of a player's defensive ability at his position.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:53 pm 
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The Hawk wrote:
tommy wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Advanced or traditional stats, using only ONE number to judge a player's worth is stupidity. Cannot be denied.

But if there were one, what would it be?


There is none, especially when one considers the worth of a player's defensive ability at his position.

Pretty much.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:57 pm 
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tommy wrote:
The Hawk wrote:
tommy wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Advanced or traditional stats, using only ONE number to judge a player's worth is stupidity. Cannot be denied.

But if there were one, what would it be?
There is none, especially when one considers the worth of a player's defensive ability at his position.

Pretty much.
I guess the to answer to which one would it be depends on what player the Cubs fan is talking about, and how it relates to their overall point. If its Abreu, then its OPS because he does not get on base at a .400 clip. If its Baez then its going to be power numbers, and the tag metric that Javy would clearly have a .999 in.

The fact is that there isn't just one. Depending on the team, the .925 OPS guy might not be the best fit in the lineup as a guy with the .830 OPS, but who also has 35-40 HRs and 120+ RBI.

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Last edited by Frank Coztansa on Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:13 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
tommy wrote:
The Hawk wrote:
tommy wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Advanced or traditional stats, using only ONE number to judge a player's worth is stupidity. Cannot be denied.

But if there were one, what would it be?
There is none, especially when one considers the worth of a player's defensive ability at his position.

Pretty much.
I guess the to answer to which one would it be depends on what player the Cubs fan is talking about, and how it relates to their overall point. If its Abreu, then its OPS because he does not get on base at a .400 clip. If its Baez then its going to be power numbers, and the tag metric that Javy would clearly have a .999 in.

The fact is that there isn't just one. Depending on the team, the .925 OPS guy might not be the best fit in the lineup as a guy with the .830 OPS, but who also has 35-50 HRs and 120+ RBI.

Except this exact Cubs fan has already rated Baez's effectiveness at the plate using his OPS ranking. So try your bullshit on someone else.

If you're looking for a single offensive statistic, OPS gets the job done with very little margin of error. If you're unsure, then spot check two players with wRC+ or oWAR and see what you get.

Overall player value, with respect to fielding and baserunning, is definitely harder to gauge but in a conversation about Jose Abreu we certainly don't need to worry about that.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:06 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
tommy wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Advanced or traditional stats, using only ONE number to judge a player's worth is stupidity. Cannot be denied.

But if there were one, what would it be?


Middle Players: WAR
Corner Players: oWAR
Starting Pitchers: W/L %
Relief Pitchers: WHIP

Interesting. I guess you have always argued this.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:37 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
tommy wrote:
The Hawk wrote:
tommy wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Advanced or traditional stats, using only ONE number to judge a player's worth is stupidity. Cannot be denied.

But if there were one, what would it be?
There is none, especially when one considers the worth of a player's defensive ability at his position.

Pretty much.
I guess the to answer to which one would it be depends on what player the Cubs fan is talking about, and how it relates to their overall point. If its Abreu, then its OPS because he does not get on base at a .400 clip. If its Baez then its going to be power numbers, and the tag metric that Javy would clearly have a .999 in.

The fact is that there isn't just one. Depending on the team, the .925 OPS guy might not be the best fit in the lineup as a guy with the .830 OPS, but who also has 35-50 HRs and 120+ RBI.

Except this exact Cubs fan has already rated Baez's effectiveness at the plate using his OPS ranking. So try your bullshit on someone else.

If you're looking for a single offensive statistic, OPS gets the job done with very little margin of error. If you're unsure, then spot check two players with wRC+ or oWAR and see what you get.

Overall player value, with respect to fielding and baserunning, is definitely harder to gauge but in a conversation about Jose Abreu we certainly don't need to worry about that.


As I said before, there is not single stat anywhere that effectively rates a player's value. Why in the hell does anyone think all of these enhanced stats were created in the first place? To me, they were basically created for owners and agents to use in order to value of a player in salary negotiations. And I also think that the legions of stat freaks who really know nothing about how baseball gets played got giddy about arguing crap like My Favorite Poster and Hero (formerly known as IMU) on an internet board based on elementary statistics 101.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:58 am 
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The Hawk wrote:
As I said before, there is not single stat anywhere that effectively rates a player's value. Why in the hell does anyone think all of these enhanced stats were created in the first place? To me, they were basically created for owners and agents to use in order to value of a player in salary negotiations. And I also think that the legions of stat freaks who really know nothing about how baseball gets played got giddy about arguing crap like My Favorite Poster and Hero (formerly known as IMU) on an internet board based on elementary statistics 101.

That's very kind of you.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:59 am 
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And we haven't touched on this little tidbit but in relation to the rest of the league, Abreu is worse than he has ever been with an OPS+ of just 113. His current .815 OPS is actually less impressive than his .798 OPS in 2018, due to the juiced ball.

Some basic rankings, in statistics that a slugger is usually judged with:

73rd in OPS
62nd in OPS+
71st in wRC+
116th in WAR
58th in SLG
64th in BA
T-31st in HR

And just a daily reminder that Jose Altuve, of course, ranks higher than Abreu in most of these.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:05 pm 
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flip flop flip flop flip flop

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:37 pm 
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IMU wrote:
And we haven't touched on this little tidbit but in relation to the rest of the league, Abreu is worse than he has ever been with an OPS+ of just 113. His current .815 OPS is actually less impressive than his .798 OPS in 2018, due to the juiced ball.

Some basic rankings, in statistics that a slugger is usually judged with:

73rd in OPS
62nd in OPS+
71st in wRC+
116th in WAR
58th in SLG
64th in BA
T-31st in HR

And just a daily reminder that Jose Altuve, of course, ranks higher than Abreu in most of these.

Don't all those rankings average out to him being the 2nd best player on a hypothetical team? Which he is on this real team.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:43 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Giolito's smoke and mirrors are over.

Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada have come back down to earth.
Ouch, babe.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:09 pm 
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.815

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:04 pm 
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Schwarber is at .814, you think he's good?


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:43 pm 
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IMU wrote:
The Hawk wrote:
As I said before, there is not single stat anywhere that effectively rates a player's value. Why in the hell does anyone think all of these enhanced stats were created in the first place? To me, they were basically created for owners and agents to use in order to value of a player in salary negotiations. And I also think that the legions of stat freaks who really know nothing about how baseball gets played got giddy about arguing crap like a stupid shit like My Favorite Poster and Hero (formerly known as IMU)[/u] on an internet board based on elementary statistics 101.

That's very kind of you.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:52 pm 
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Bababooey wrote:
Schwarber is at .814, you think he's good?


Who is Schwarber. Does he pack sausages or something? Never heard of the guy.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:39 pm 
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.850 is the next landmark now that .825 has been exceeded

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:43 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
.850 is the next landmark now that .825 has been exceeded
Yup.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:14 pm 
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IMU was so happy a few weeks ago, never foreseeing impending doom

Image

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:31 pm 
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I'm in the catbird seat.

If he goes back down to .799 or below for the second season in a row, after I've been told each and every time that it was an aberration, I look great.

If he ends the season somewhere between .800 and .850 and White Sox fans are celebrating that, they look bad.

Fact of the matter is that I've said Abreu is an .800 OPS player, and in the second half, he is at .770. So he is still trending downward when a larger sample size is considered, despite his last 11 games.

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