Jim Bowden from ESPN Insider:
There are presently eight teams that are all in on a rebuilding program: the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics. Although there are other teams that are retooling, revamping or building, these eight are in more of a full rebuild.
Interestingly, they are all going about it in different ways. The Braves for example, have been doing it in a different way than how the Cubs did it. The Braves have focused mostly on pitching while the Cubs focused their rebuild on hitters. The Padres have taken a high-risk, high-reward strategy, while the White Sox and Phillies have rebuilt mostly through the trade market. There is no single right answer on the best way to build a franchise and it can be done in several different ways.
Here is a progress report and ranking of the eight rebuilding franchises:
1. San Diego Padres
The Padres have put together the best long-term rebuilding program of all of the teams. Their philosophy is all based on high-ceiling players from the draft, international signings and trades. They don't care about how close a player is to the majors, they just want impact players. They're OK with the reality that they might hit on only one of five players, but when they do hit they’re looking for All-Star-caliber, difference-making players. Every trade they’ve made has been about getting the best prospect, not about the level of risk or distance to the big leagues.
Manuel Margot played for Team World in the 2016 MLB All-Star Future Game. Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire
When GM A.J. Preller arrived in 2015, the Padres tried to win right away by acquiring outfielders Matt Kemp and Justin Upton and pitchers James Shieldsand Craig Kimbrel. The idea was that if they could contend immediately, it would give them time to set up their scouting and player development departments and build their philosophy and start the inflow of young talented players. However, at the time when they made the moves, they also agreed if it didn’t work, they could use those veteran players for trades to help them build. It was a win-win situation. Well, not a win at the big league level, because that was ultimately a failure.
The Padres talked to several teams about trading Kimbrel at the 2015 trade deadline, but the best offers were one-for-one and not good enough. By waiting until the offseason they got a much better deal when the Red Sox loaded up and traded four good prospects for Kimbrel, including center fielder Manuel Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, left-handed pitcher Logan Allen and infielder Carlos Asuaje. Margot is an above average defender in center and a slasher at the plate. He uses the whole field and should be a future doubles machine with above average speed. Guerra might have the highest ceiling of the group at shortstop because he’s a Gold Glove-caliber defender with a 70 arm. The question with Guerra is if he’ll hit enough and he had a down first year in the Padres’ system, hitting .202 with 141 strikeouts in 105 games at Lake Elsinore (High-A). Allen’s fastball is 92-95 mph with sink and solid late life and he has strong secondary pitches as well. It was the Kimbrel trade that set the tone for the direction of the Padres.
The Padres have made other trades since, looking to get more high-end talent. They acquired two high-ceiling bats, adding Fernando Tatis Jr. for James Shields and Josh Naylor as part of a package for Andrew Cashner. Tatis Jr. has a loose swing and easy actions with well-above-average power to all fields and could develop into an impact bat. Naylor is a legitimate middle of the order impact bat with power to all fields and the potential to be a consistent 30-homer, 100-RBI producer.
The Padres also acquired starting pitching prospects in two trades involving Drew Pomeranz, one when they traded for him and one when they traded him to the Red Sox. In the first trade they acquired left-hander Jose Torres with Pomeranz in a lopsided deal that sent Marc Rzepczynski and Yonder Alonso to Oakland. Then, Preller spun Pomeranz at this year’s trade deadline to the Red Sox for Anderson Espinoza, one of baseball's best starting pitching prospects. Espinoza has a small frame, but throws 97-98 and profiles as an eventual top-of-the-rotation starter.
The Padres' drafting has been just as successful. Their selection of Cal Quantrill (No.
this past June while he was coming back from Tommy John surgery was brilliant. He has a 96-97 mph fastball and a great changeup, and when his curve is on it misses bats. He should be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter. They also did a great job in nabbing Jacob Nix with their third pick in 2015. Although Nix still has to work on command and control, he has the stuff to be a successful big league starter. Chris Paddack was their eighth-round pick out of Texas in 2014 and he’s got a high-90s fastball and a Bugs Bunny changeup.
The Padres spent approximately $45 million on international free agents since July, taking advantage of teams that were in the penalty and couldn't sign players and the knowledge that the new CBA would dramatically change the way teams did business. Their best sign so far has been Adrian Morejon, a 17-year-old left-handed pitcher with three major league pitches already -- a fastball, curve and change. He is arguably the best left-hander to come out of Cuba since Aroldis Chapman. He touches 95-97 mph with tremendous command and control.
Many scouts who saw the Padres' Instructional League program told me they had the most talented group of players they've seen in a long time both in quantity and quality. That speaks volumes to their progress as an organization.
The Padres have a solid plan in place and it's working on all levels right now -- the draft, international signings and trades. Now the key is patience because this is also the longest rebuilding program of all the teams on this list -- with a realistic timetable for contending being in 2020 or 2021.
2. Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox started their rebuild this fall, hitting back-to-back grand slams on two huge trades at the winter meetings that took about two years off their timetable. Of course, they had an ace to trade in Chris Sale, who was signed way under market value and controllable for three more years, and GM Rick Hahn maximized the return for his most valuable trade chip. He landed baseball’s top position-player prospect in switch-hitter Yoan Moncada, who will be their long-term second baseman. Many evaluators think Moncada could join the 30/30 club someday. They also received Boston’s best pitching prospect in Michael Kopech, who throws 100 mph and has been compared to a young Noah Syndergaard. The sleeper in the trade is Luis Alexander Basabe, a true center fielder who should develop into a 15-homer, 30-stolen base player.
Chicago’s other major trade sent outfielder Adam Eaton to the Nationals for a huge haul in pitchers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning. Giolito profiles as a top-of-rotation starter, Lopez could be a No. 2 starter or impact closer while Dunning could make a quick rise to the big leagues as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater. The Nationals refused to put these pitchers in deals last summer for Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman or Jonathan Lucroy and yet put all three in this one deal for a .360 on-base percentage outfielder with 15-home run and 15-stolen base credentials.
The next step for the White Sox is finding trades for Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera. It might take injuries around the league before they get solid offers, but both should be gone by the July trade deadline.
They also have a huge chip in left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana. They control Quintana for four years so the only reason to deal him is if they find another team willing to make a lopsided trade for pitching help -- something the Astros might consider in time.
For this rebuilding program to work, the White Sox must start getting better results from scouting and player development and can't just rely on trades. They need to start doing a better job in the draft and with their international signings by paying more attention to the hit tool for position players and the command tool for pitchers.
They're off to a great start this offseason and instead of taking five-six years to rebuild, they're probably three to four seasons away from contention now.3. Atlanta Braves
The Braves started their first phase of rebuilding under president John Hart and GM John Coppolella when they traded Jason Heywardto the Cardinals for a package that included starting pitcher Shelby Miller back in November of 2014, setting off a string of trades to restock the organization by focusing on getting high-end pitching prospects back for veterans such as Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel and Andrelton Simmons.
Atlanta’s signature deal came when they made the best trade of the entire 2015-16 offseason, swindling the Arizona Diamondbacks and landing their long-term solution at shortstop in Dansby Swanson along with center fielder Ender Inciarte and right-handed pitcher Aaron Blair for Miller.
Dansby Swanson his .302 in 38 games last season for the Braves. Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports
This offseason they’ve made more moves for solid prospects, including the acquisition of Alex Jackson, a power bat from the Mariners, and the signing of Jacob Lindgren, a left-handed pitcher who was non-tendered by the Yankees.
Their amateur drafting has followed the same pitching-first mentality as their trade strategy. In 2015, they took left-handed starter Kolby Allard with their first pick and followed that up with right-hander Mike Soroka with their second pick, both in the first round. In fact, the Braves took pitchers with 13 of their first 14 selections. This past year they continued the trend by selecting three pitchers with their first three selections in Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz and Kyle Muller.
The Braves understand they’re not going to hit on all of these pitchers, but with the quantity and quality they’ve been collecting, they should end up with a strong homegrown starting rotation that will make them contenders by 2018 or 2019.
The Braves have used their international signings mostly for position players since their trades and drafts have been all about pitching. The Braves have done well here too, building the team up the middle by signing center fielder Ronald Jose Acuna, switch-hitting shortstop Kevin Maitan and their future second baseman Ozzie Albies -- presently their best overall prospect -- to go along with Swanson. Atlanta also nabbed Abraham Gutierrez and Yunior Severino while spending nearly $20 million this past summer.
The system is missing middle-of-the-order impact bats, and that’s an area they’ll have to start addressing now.
The Braves started the second phase of their rebuilding program at the trade deadline, acquiring veteran players that can help their prospects develop, but also give the team a chance to compete when they open their new stadium.
They continued that approach this offseason with the signings of veteran starting pitchers R.A. Dickey, Bartolo Colon and John Danks. The Braves hope this trio can help them contend as placeholders until their young starters make it to Atlanta. Dickey and Colon are great teachers and also bring competition for rotation spots. If Atlanta’s young arms are ready by the trade deadline, the Braves can then trade all three of the pitchers for even more prospects.
The Braves have done a tremendous job so far in their rebuilding program and should be legitimate contenders as soon as 2018.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers’ philosophy has been simple since GM David Stearns was hired -- amass as much talent as possible in the high minors and target controllable major league players in trades.
The Brewers made a couple of trades to help expedite their rebuilding process, acquiring Keon Broxton from the Pirates and shrewdly getting Jonathan Villarfrom the Astros. They also did well in their return for Jonathan Lucroy at the trade deadline when they picked up outfielder Lewis Brinson, infielder/outfielder Ryan Cordell and right-handed power arm Luis Ortiz from the Texas Rangers. The recent trade of set-up reliever Tyler Thornburg to the Red Sox netted three players that should be major league contributors in third baseman Travis Shaw, infielder Mauricio Dubon and pitcher Josh Pennington.
The final trade of former GM Doug Melvin could become one of his better trades, too, as he picked up outfielders Domingo Santana and Brett Phillips and pitching prospect Josh Hader in a deal that sent Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiersto the Astros.
The Brewers have made out-of-the-box moves at the major league level this offseason, non-tendering Chris Carter and replacing him with Eric Thames, who they gave a $16 million guarantee to. Even though Thames' successful performance in Korean baseball might not translate back here against major league pitching, it's a worthwhile and creative risk they can afford to take.
The Brewers are pleased with the top of their rotation in Zach Davies, Wily Peralta and Junior Guerra -- an October 2015 waiver claim who now has great trade value.
The key will be the development of their top pitching prospects, including: Hader Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff and Phil Bickford. There are issues with to work through here as Ortiz has to get his body under control and Bickford just got suspended for testing positive for marijuana. However, if they can hit on two or three of them, the Brewers could be ready to contend as early as 2018 or 2019 at the latest.
They’ve made several smart trades, waiver claims, and international signings. They’ve built a strong core of position players and have a wave of pitching prospects en route. And they still have Ryan Braun to trade when someone comes to them with a compelling prospect package.
The Brew Crew is on the right path thanks to the vision of Stearns.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies’ teardown began in earnest in October of 2014 when Pat Gillick made the announcement of a new direction. He has since moved upstairs and the general manager at the time, Ruben Amaro Jr., would later be fired. Andy MacPhail took over as president and hired Matt Klentak as general manager.
The Phillies' trades started with Jimmy Rollins going to the Dodgers and continued with deals that sent Jonathan Papelbon to the Nationals and Marlon Byrd to the Reds.
The best and biggest trade was Amaro's last, a deal that sent Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman to the Rangers for pitchers Jerad Eickhoff, Jake Thompson, Alec Asher and Matt Harrison, catcher Jorge Alfaro and outfielder Nick Williams.
The best deal by Klentak since he took over came when he sent closer Ken Gilesand shortstop Jonathan Arauz to Houston for pitchers Vince Velasquez, Mark Appel, Thomas Eshelman, Harold Arauz and Brett Oberholtzer in a move that added significantly to Philadelphia’s stock of young pitching.
The Phillies also used the Rule 5 draft to solve their need in center field when they selected Odubel Herrera from the Texas Rangers two years ago. That move was so successful they just signed Herrera to a five-year, $30.5 million deal.
The Phillies have also done well in the draft, especially with the selection of J.P. Crawford -- their future shortstop -- outfielder Mickey Moniak and first baseman Rhys Hoskins. When all three arrive, it should be a game-changer for the Phillies. They have had success internationally as well, highlighted by the signing of right-handed pitcher Sixto Sanchez, who was 5-0 with a 0.50 ERA in the Gulf Coast League.
The best part of the Phillies’ rebuild has been their young starting rotation, led by former first-round pick Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Velasquez, Asher, Zach Eflin and Thompson.
The Phillies are on their way and have showed great patience this offseason by waiting for their prospects to develop instead of rushing into moves. They should be primed to dip into the strong free-agent class of 2018 and ready to be legitimate contenders once again in 2019.
6. Oakland Athletics
The A's haven't done a good job in the draft, or with international signings, and are presently paying the price for it. They have, however, made some trades to replenish their farm system. At the 2015 trade deadline, they got a future starter in Sean Manaea in their deal for Ben Zobristand acquired Daniel Mengden in the Scott Kazmir swap. This year, they picked up three solid pitching prospects from the Dodgers in Grant Holmes, Frankie Montas and Jharel Cotton. The only way the A’s are going to compete again is if Sonny Gray has a comeback year and if they hit on this group of pitching acquisitions.
Jharel Cotton made five starts last season for the A's, giving up just seven earned runs in 29 1/3 innings. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Offensively, the A’s will have to remain patient for their two best bats to arrive: Franklin Barreto, the key acquisition in the Josh Donaldson trade, and Matt Chapman, their first-round pick in 2014 out of Cal State Fullerton.
The A’s need to sign some free agents they can later move at the deadline to help stock their system. They need to do better in the draft. And they need a new stadium to increase revenues to give them somewhat of a chance. The new CBA didn't help them. Right now, of any team in the American League, Oakland has the furthest to go to get back to contending status.
7. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have spent the last few years rebuilding -- trading Johnny Cueto, Aroldis Chapman, Todd Frazier, Mat Latos , Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon. They've had mixed returns on their deals overall, but did land Adam Duvall in the Leake trade, Jose Peraza in the Frazier deal, and Anthony DeSclafani in the Latos move. They’re hoping Brandon Finnegan or Cody Reed, the two headliners in the Cueto deal, will pay dividends, but they wish they could have a do-over with the Chapman trade, especially after seeing what the Yankees got for him at last year’s trade deadline.
The Reds did well in the draft this year, taking Nick Senzel with their first pick, but most in the industry think they whiffed on their previous two first-round selections -- right-hander Nick Howard in 2014, and catcher Tyler Stephenson, whom scouts say isn’t going to hit enough, in 2015.
The Reds have a bright new GM in Dick Williams who has taken over full baseball operations power from his predecessor, Walt Jocketty, but he wasn’t dealt a strong hand. Votto’s contract makes it almost impossible to trade him, let alone get a huge haul back, Brandon Phillips' no-trade clause prevented a deal to the Nationals last year, and teams are trying to steal Billy Hamilton from them, making offers way below his value. The Reds haven’t done anything this offseason to either stockpile talent or unblock prospects in the middle of the diamond.
Cincinnati has to hope for a strong draft and then be open to dealing all of its best assets at the trade deadline, including Raisel Iglesias, Devin Mesoraco, Joey Votto, Phillips and Hamilton. There is a lot of work to do in the Queen City and the Reds are presently well behind most of the other rebuilding teams.
8. Minnesota Twins
The Twins certainly have some strong building blocks, with a young position player core that includes Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Nick Gordon and Alex Kirilloff. They also have some solid pitching prospects on the way, including Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero and Tyler Jay. However, there wasn’t a strong plan in place for building a championship club; rather it’s been about collecting talent. With their new administration led by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine now in place, the Twins can finally formulate a strong rebuilding program using the blueprint from the Indians, Falvey's former club, and the Rangers, Levine's old team. It’s going to take some time, but they now have the right people in place to make it happen.
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