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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 9:20 am 
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Eddie Butler for Q


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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 9:24 am 
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I'd honestly consider it as a salary dump. Paying this guy for 3 more seasons is going to suck.


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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 9:30 am 
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Normally I agree with JORR in these discussions. But I dont see how you can say that Qs value doesnt go up or down based on his performance. Teams track everything and they use it to their advantage. Sure Q is what he is in some regards....but teams who are looking to trade for him are going to use any means possible to lower the asking price. If he was 7-2 right now with a 2 something ERA you cannot tell me his value right now wouldnt be more than it currently is...

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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 9:30 am 
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America wrote:
I'd honestly consider it as a salary dump. Paying this guy for 3 more seasons is going to suck.



You're getting ridiculous with this.

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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 9:32 am 
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I'm going to come right out and say that baseball discussion this season as been atrocious on this board. That's too bad, really.

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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 9:33 am 
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RFDC wrote:
Normally I agree with JORR in these discussions. But I dont see how you can say that Qs value doesnt go up or down based on his performance. Teams track everything and they use it to their advantage. Sure Q is what he is in some regards....but teams who are looking to trade for him are going to use any means possible to lower the asking price. If he was 7-2 right now with a 2 something ERA you cannot tell me his value right now wouldnt be more than it currently is...



I don't think it would be. There's a limit to what you're going to get. If the Sox could have gotten what they wanted he'd be gone already. It all depends on what team needs what, what they're willing to give up, and how desperate they are at the time. The timing is everything. That's what matters more than a few bad innings or an eight inning one-hitter.

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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 9:35 am 
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RFDC wrote:
Normally I agree with JORR in these discussions. But I dont see how you can say that Qs value doesnt go up or down based on his performance. Teams track everything and they use it to their advantage. Sure Q is what he is in some regards....but teams who are looking to trade for him are going to use any means possible to lower the asking price. If he was 7-2 right now with a 2 something ERA you cannot tell me his value right now wouldnt be more than it currently is...
Yesterday you wouldn't even consider a Quintana for Schwarber trade even though both are struggling. What did you put Schwarbers value at prior to his struggles in that case?

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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 9:38 am 
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Right now he's a pitcher who has lost his stuff. At this point his control, which was a blessing six months ago, has become a curse. A lot of teams would be interested in him if only they weren't sentenced to paying him for three more years should it not work out.

Two months in and he looks objectively bad.

Quintana for Schwarber would be an interesting trade, but it's lopsided in favor of the Sox because Schwarber has a more favorable contract status.


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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 9:41 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Normally I agree with JORR in these discussions. But I dont see how you can say that Qs value doesnt go up or down based on his performance. Teams track everything and they use it to their advantage. Sure Q is what he is in some regards....but teams who are looking to trade for him are going to use any means possible to lower the asking price. If he was 7-2 right now with a 2 something ERA you cannot tell me his value right now wouldnt be more than it currently is...
Yesterday you wouldn't even consider a Quintana for Schwarber trade even though both are struggling. What did you put Schwarbers value at prior to his struggles in that case?

My thoughts are way more based on the fact that I do not like Q as a pitcher at all. I have seen too much of his act. And if the Cubs are going to trade Schwarber for pitching I would prefer it to be someone else.

And if Q was 7-2 with a 2 era then I might be way more inclined to trade him for Schwarber...

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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 9:49 am 
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It's probably worth just calling up Delmonico if the Sox want a lefty bat with limited defensive ability. I can't imagine he could do much worse than a .550 OPS, and it costs nothing to bring up Delmonico and see what he has.


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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 10:18 am 
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RFDC wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Normally I agree with JORR in these discussions. But I dont see how you can say that Qs value doesnt go up or down based on his performance. Teams track everything and they use it to their advantage. Sure Q is what he is in some regards....but teams who are looking to trade for him are going to use any means possible to lower the asking price. If he was 7-2 right now with a 2 something ERA you cannot tell me his value right now wouldnt be more than it currently is...
Yesterday you wouldn't even consider a Quintana for Schwarber trade even though both are struggling. What did you put Schwarbers value at prior to his struggles in that case?

My thoughts are way more based on the fact that I do not like Q as a pitcher at all.


That's how I feel about him too, but you have to understand that in a world where it is widely accepted that "W/L record is a team stat" and something beyond the starting pitcher's control, he has value far in excess of that which our old-fashioned opinions would dictate.

He certainly hasn't "lost his stuff" as America contends. In fact, he has never been what I would call a "stuff guy". That's one reason I don't think much of him. His upside is limited. He's not a guy who will ever go on an Arrieta or Loaiza type run. What's happening to him is that, for whatever reason, he isn't hitting his spots when he has these bad innings. In the past that has usually happened at a critical juncture in a game and lasted just long enough to give him a no decision or a loss in an otherwise outstanding performance.

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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 10:24 am 
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RFDC wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Normally I agree with JORR in these discussions. But I dont see how you can say that Qs value doesnt go up or down based on his performance. Teams track everything and they use it to their advantage. Sure Q is what he is in some regards....but teams who are looking to trade for him are going to use any means possible to lower the asking price. If he was 7-2 right now with a 2 something ERA you cannot tell me his value right now wouldnt be more than it currently is...
Yesterday you wouldn't even consider a Quintana for Schwarber trade even though both are struggling. What did you put Schwarbers value at prior to his struggles in that case?

My thoughts are way more based on the fact that I do not like Q as a pitcher at all. I have seen too much of his act. And if the Cubs are going to trade Schwarber for pitching I would prefer it to be someone else.

And if Q was 7-2 with a 2 era then I might be way more inclined to trade him for Schwarber...
That's fair. So you pretty much never have thought Quintana is worth Schwarber.

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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 10:30 am 
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Quintana was consistent 92-93 from a lefty which is good. Great curve. Great control/command. Kept the ball in the park. He was only good for 7 innings tops though.

Now he has totally lost his command/touch feel. Walking twice as many guys as he did two years ago. Why do you lose control? Well either you are going steve blass or your arm hurts.

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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 10:35 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
Quintana was consistent 92-93 from a lefty which is good. Great curve. Great control/command. Kept the ball in the park. He was only good for 7 innings tops though.

Now he has totally lost his command/touch feel. Walking twice as many guys as he did two years ago. Why do you lose control? Well either you are going steve blass or your arm hurts.



I don't think that's it. He's had good outings mixed in there. Even the other day he cruised through the first three innings before he came apart. If I had to guess I'd say it's some tiny mechanical flaw in his delivery.

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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 10:38 am 
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possibly tipping his pitches. but you can see by watching him his command sux. 0-2 then 3-2. BOOM!

I think Coop would identify any mechanical flaws.

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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 10:38 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
Quintana was consistent 92-93 from a lefty which is good. Great curve. Great control/command. Kept the ball in the park. He was only good for 7 innings tops though.

Now he has totally lost his command/touch feel. Walking twice as many guys as he did two years ago. Why do you lose control? Well either you are going steve blass or your arm hurts.



I don't think that's it. He's had good outings mixed in there. Even the other day he cruised through the first three innings before he came apart. If I had to guess I'd say it's some tiny mechanical flaw in his delivery.



Joe---Did you look at Shields last year and say, "This guys value is high, he throws 200ip per year and an ERA under 4 every year!" or "God Damn does he suck, why do we want this?"?


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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 10:41 am 
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Cashman wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
Quintana was consistent 92-93 from a lefty which is good. Great curve. Great control/command. Kept the ball in the park. He was only good for 7 innings tops though.

Now he has totally lost his command/touch feel. Walking twice as many guys as he did two years ago. Why do you lose control? Well either you are going steve blass or your arm hurts.



I don't think that's it. He's had good outings mixed in there. Even the other day he cruised through the first three innings before he came apart. If I had to guess I'd say it's some tiny mechanical flaw in his delivery.



Joe---Did you look at Shields last year and say, "This guys value is high, he throws 200ip per year and an ERA under 4 every year!" or "God Damn does he suck, why do we want this?"?


I didn't think Shields was finished last year. He's too good a pitcher for that. But the situation is different. Shields is actually a guy who is losing his stuff. But it appears that he has reinvented himself. That's what good pitchers do.

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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 10:48 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Cashman wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
Quintana was consistent 92-93 from a lefty which is good. Great curve. Great control/command. Kept the ball in the park. He was only good for 7 innings tops though.

Now he has totally lost his command/touch feel. Walking twice as many guys as he did two years ago. Why do you lose control? Well either you are going steve blass or your arm hurts.



I don't think that's it. He's had good outings mixed in there. Even the other day he cruised through the first three innings before he came apart. If I had to guess I'd say it's some tiny mechanical flaw in his delivery.



Joe---Did you look at Shields last year and say, "This guys value is high, he throws 200ip per year and an ERA under 4 every year!" or "God Damn does he suck, why do we want this?"?


I didn't think Shields was finished last year. He's too good a pitcher for that. But the situation is different. Shields is actually a guy who is losing his stuff. But it appears that he has reinvented himself. That's what good pitchers do.


I saw nothing there when Kenny decided we needed him. I am pretty sure he had a string on terrible starts, and I had no clue other than Kenny thinking this would make the Sox competitive, why he wanted him.


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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 10:50 am 
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Joe--I think if you take out age(body of work), it is almost the same thing. Shields was having a terrible year and his trade value was down. As a GM, you have lower trade value when you are doing poorly. But at the end of the day, it is supply and demand.


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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 10:51 am 
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Shields still has a lat pull or whatever? Give me a break. He was actually pitching decent. What a bum.


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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 10:54 am 
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Cashman wrote:
Joe--I think if you take out age(body of work), it is almost the same thing. Shields was having a terrible year and his trade value was down. As a GM, you have lower trade value when you are doing poorly. But at the end of the day, it is supply and demand.



He wasn't really having a terrible year. He had two or three bad starts just prior to the deal. San Diego was annoyed with him for reasons beyond baseball.

My issue with the Shields deal had more to do with what I thought about the Sox realistic ability to compete.

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PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 10:56 am 
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America is being ridiculous. He just has not been as sharp recently. But worrying about paying him the next three season? Every team in baseball would take him on that contract. They are not as emotional as he is-- hanging on every start like it's the sum of his season.

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PostPosted: Sat May 27, 2017 8:59 am 
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http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... position=P

Seems to be striking out a few more guys while walking more guys as well.

Compared to last season his FIP and xFIP are not that far off from last year and about in line with how he was projected to do.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &page=2_30

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 2017&ind=0

He's #36 in the league in FIP for guys with enough innings. #24 in WAR.

Walking more guys + a worse defense behind him? It seems like he's still a damned effective starting pitcher on a good contract so the asking price should still be top prospects IMO. And perhaps he gets his control back in line. Even so, he's still playing way better so far than a joe sixpack starting pitcher even with the curious start.

A contender looking to win a playoff series that doesn't have a strong #2 or #3 should want to have him. And he's an affordable asset going forward for that contender if they have a guy coming off the books they don't want to pay big $$$ for.


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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 8:37 pm 
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Another start where Q got his brains beat in. Here's something interesting:
Image

It showed through tonight: Quintana is trying to pitch off of his curveball more and more, and he's going to get rocked the more he relies on it, because it's not a true "plus" pitch.

What's more, according to Pitch f/x, he's lost enough lateral movement on his fastball for their system to decide that he has all but given up on his two-seam fastball. Add on to that the fact that he's living more in the high-middle of the zone this year than previous years, and it looks like there's a mechanical flaw somewhere that needs to get worked on.

He appears to have lost movement on his fastball, as well as location, and is relying on an inferior pitch to try to make due, it's just not working as often. Give him a stint on the DL to work exclusively on his mechanics, and see where you are.


Last edited by Juice's Lecture Notes on Tue May 30, 2017 9:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 8:52 pm 
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 1:39 pm 
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Terrible season for Q.

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 1:43 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Terrible season for Q.

No worries, his trade value is not impacted.

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 2:17 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Terrible season for Q.

No worries, his trade value is not impacted.


http://southsideshowdown.com/2017/06/03 ... low-start/

"A rival GM told Jon Heyman he didn’t think Jose Quintana’s slow start would effect his trade value."

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 2:33 pm 
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you should be smarter than that JORR. do you bet on horses that used to be good but came in last 10 starts in a row?

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 2:36 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
you should be smarter than that JORR. do you bet on horses that used to be good but came in last 10 starts in a row?

:lol:

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