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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 6:40 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Nardi wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
Nardi wrote:
So the base wasn't open until 1-2? And Turner's 1-2 line? .256/.256/.359

I think the pitcher threw a wild pitch while Turner was at bat which opened the base

Previous to this AB, Turner was 4 for 8 w/ HR.

I won't defend the move, but LaRussa has done dumber things than this.

They scored 9 runs today . That’s gotta be enough to win . Regardless of what TLR dis , Sousa has to get Muncy out . Fucking dude is hitting .159

I agree. I didn't watch, but I'm pretty sure this was a also a gut move as Turner was swinging the bat well.
The way Twitter presents this, it's like Tony up and decided to walk a dude for no reason. There was a reason. 3 reasons. That being the case, I'd still pitch to Turner.


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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 6:43 pm 
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Id take my chances needing one strike at a dude hitting .800 over needing three strikes to the next guy.

Sox lost by two. If Sousa gets Turner, Sox win. The manager took the ball out of Sousa's hand and to be honest he was probably a little rattled when that happened. I can't blame him if that was the case.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 6:48 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
You can't defend that move. I don't care.

If you can't get 1 strike with a guy on 2nd on a 1-2 count and would rather face a 30+ HR guy with 2 guys on, trade everybody then. Really instills confidence in your guys.

Batting Leury leadoff is dumber than walking Turner at 1-2. Throwing two 2nd games of doubleheaders is dumber than walking Turner. And I could go on. This is not a top ten of dumb. I hate LaRussa just as much if not more than anybody here. Hell, I hated him the first time around. He was a shitstain who happened to have a brainiac next to him.


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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 6:53 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Id take my chances needing one strike at a dude hitting .800 over needing three strikes to the next guy.

Sox lost by two. If Sousa gets Turner, Sox win. The manager took the ball out of Sousa's hand and to be honest he was probably a little rattled when that happened. I can't blame him if that was the case.

Again, 4-8 with a HR, an open base, with garbage in the on deck circle. I disagree with the walk, but the thinking isn't insane. It's just an over think.


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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 6:58 pm 
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Nardi wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Id take my chances needing one strike at a dude hitting .800 over needing three strikes to the next guy.

Sox lost by two. If Sousa gets Turner, Sox win. The manager took the ball out of Sousa's hand and to be honest he was probably a little rattled when that happened. I can't blame him if that was the case.

Again, 4-8 with a HR, an open base, with garbage in the on deck circle. I disagree with the walk, but the thinking isn't insane. It's just an over think.

100% it was . Players still have to perform . You can’t get beat by a guy hitting .150 in a lefty lefty matchup . Chapman can’t let a piece of garbage like Rajai Davis take him deep.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 7:04 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
You can't defend that move. I don't care.

If you can't get 1 strike with a guy on 2nd on a 1-2 count and would rather face a 30+ HR guy with 2 guys on, trade everybody then. Really instills confidence in your guys.

Right. I mean why the intentional walk? If you're worried about it throw some high heat or outside heat and maybe he'll swing and miss but if you walk him and the end result of the BB is the same. At least you have a chance at a ground out or a pop out or a k. Why the ibb? Why not just pitch away.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 7:12 pm 
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And if you don't have confidence and Sousa being able to get the middle of the order out with two strikes, then why bring him into the game in the first place? It's not like he was facing a pinch-hitter.

badrogue17 wrote:
Players still have to perform
Then let him perform. Don't take the ball out of his hand with an asinine intentional walk call.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 7:20 pm 
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Darkside wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
You can't defend that move. I don't care.

If you can't get 1 strike with a guy on 2nd on a 1-2 count and would rather face a 30+ HR guy with 2 guys on, trade everybody then. Really instills confidence in your guys.

Right. I mean why the intentional walk? If you're worried about it throw some high heat or outside heat and maybe he'll swing and miss but if you walk him and the end result of the BB is the same. At least you have a chance at a ground out or a pop out or a k. Why the ibb? Why not just pitch away.

No, I don't go out there and talk to some guy named Sousa and trust him to nibble outside the edges. I tell him to get after it. Simple is better. As Frank alluded to, lack of trust for a competitor is harder than failure.


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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 8:29 pm 
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Nardi wrote:
Darkside wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
You can't defend that move. I don't care.

If you can't get 1 strike with a guy on 2nd on a 1-2 count and would rather face a 30+ HR guy with 2 guys on, trade everybody then. Really instills confidence in your guys.

Right. I mean why the intentional walk? If you're worried about it throw some high heat or outside heat and maybe he'll swing and miss but if you walk him and the end result of the BB is the same. At least you have a chance at a ground out or a pop out or a k. Why the ibb? Why not just pitch away.

No, I don't go out there and talk to some guy named Sousa and trust him to nibble outside the edges. I tell him to get after it. Simple is better. As Frank alluded to, lack of trust for a competitor is harder than failure.

Ok. Thats fair. But I'd rather pitch around him and hope to get a K while giving a walk than giving an IBB without even challenging the guy. That's bad leadership to me on two levels.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 9:18 pm 
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Felt like a Joe Maddon type move.

A .254 lifetime hitter with two strikes is not a reason to intentionally walk the guy. While I get Muncy has sucked, you have to take into account how doing something so unorthodox can mess with the head of the pitcher.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 9:42 pm 
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Maddon is currently out of a job, and TLR should be as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:10 pm 
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This isn't a TLR issue; this is a Hahn problem. The Sox had 2 outfielders playing 1st and 3rd base today. Burger's incompetence ultimately led to 6 runs by the Dodgers in the 5th. TLR has no depth to work with, and the entire lineup has the 2017-2021 Cubs flu.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:30 pm 
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TLR is baseball Nagy. Defending him is inexplicable at this point.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:03 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
TLR is baseball Nagy. Defending him is inexplicable at this point.


TLR has a 40 year history of winning while doing unconventional things. Matt Nagy was a salesman who was exposed.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:56 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Maddon is currently out of a job, and TLR should be as well.



No matter the stats, I doubt Tony knew or cared what they were.


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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:48 am 
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Darkside wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Darkside wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
You can't defend that move. I don't care.

If you can't get 1 strike with a guy on 2nd on a 1-2 count and would rather face a 30+ HR guy with 2 guys on, trade everybody then. Really instills confidence in your guys.

Right. I mean why the intentional walk? If you're worried about it throw some high heat or outside heat and maybe he'll swing and miss but if you walk him and the end result of the BB is the same. At least you have a chance at a ground out or a pop out or a k. Why the ibb? Why not just pitch away.

No, I don't go out there and talk to some guy named Sousa and trust him to nibble outside the edges. I tell him to get after it. Simple is better. As Frank alluded to, lack of trust for a competitor is harder than failure.

Ok. Thats fair. But I'd rather pitch around him and hope to get a K while giving a walk than giving an IBB without even challenging the guy. That's bad leadership to me on two levels.


I'm with DS and the Doc on this one.

Just an incredibly dumb move.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:58 am 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Id take my chances needing one strike at a dude hitting .800 over needing three strikes to the next guy.

Sox lost by two. If Sousa gets Turner, Sox win. The manager took the ball out of Sousa's hand and to be honest he was probably a little rattled when that happened. I can't blame him if that was the case.

Again, 4-8 with a HR, an open base, with garbage in the on deck circle. I disagree with the walk, but the thinking isn't insane. It's just an over think.

100% it was . Players still have to perform . You can’t get beat by a guy hitting .150 in a lefty lefty matchup . Chapman can’t let a piece of garbage like Rajai Davis take him deep.



The intentional walk is the defensive analog to the sacrifice bunt. It occurs far more than it should. I don't even want to get into the idiocy of doing it on a 1-2 count.

LaRussa loves to sacrifice with men on first and second. If you don't think your hitter can drive in runners from first and second, he shouldn't be batting in that spot.

And If you don't think your pitcher can get a guy out off a 1-2 count, he shouldn't be on the team.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:20 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Id take my chances needing one strike at a dude hitting .800 over needing three strikes to the next guy.

Sox lost by two. If Sousa gets Turner, Sox win. The manager took the ball out of Sousa's hand and to be honest he was probably a little rattled when that happened. I can't blame him if that was the case.

Again, 4-8 with a HR, an open base, with garbage in the on deck circle. I disagree with the walk, but the thinking isn't insane. It's just an over think.

100% it was . Players still have to perform . You can’t get beat by a guy hitting .150 in a lefty lefty matchup . Chapman can’t let a piece of garbage like Rajai Davis take him deep.



The intentional walk is the defensive analog to the sacrifice bunt. It occurs far more than it should. I don't even want to get into the idiocy of doing it on a 1-2 count.

LaRussa loves to sacrifice with men on first and second. If you don't think your hitter can drive in runners from first and second, he shouldn't be batting in that spot.

And If you don't think your pitcher can get a guy out off a 1-2 count, he shouldn't be on the team.


Mully said this morning that it was the first time in MLB history that ever happened.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:38 am 
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Seacrest wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Id take my chances needing one strike at a dude hitting .800 over needing three strikes to the next guy.

Sox lost by two. If Sousa gets Turner, Sox win. The manager took the ball out of Sousa's hand and to be honest he was probably a little rattled when that happened. I can't blame him if that was the case.

Again, 4-8 with a HR, an open base, with garbage in the on deck circle. I disagree with the walk, but the thinking isn't insane. It's just an over think.

100% it was . Players still have to perform . You can’t get beat by a guy hitting .150 in a lefty lefty matchup . Chapman can’t let a piece of garbage like Rajai Davis take him deep.



The intentional walk is the defensive analog to the sacrifice bunt. It occurs far more than it should. I don't even want to get into the idiocy of doing it on a 1-2 count.

LaRussa loves to sacrifice with men on first and second. If you don't think your hitter can drive in runners from first and second, he shouldn't be batting in that spot.

And If you don't think your pitcher can get a guy out off a 1-2 count, he shouldn't be on the team.


Mully said this morning that it was the first time in MLB history that ever happened.


It's a "cute" manager move. Like intentionally walking a guy with the bases loaded. Even if it works out, it was idiotic. But the guy who did it gets talked about.

The manager should put the nine best guys on the field ordered from best hitter to worst and then get the fuck out of the way.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:54 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Id take my chances needing one strike at a dude hitting .800 over needing three strikes to the next guy.

Sox lost by two. If Sousa gets Turner, Sox win. The manager took the ball out of Sousa's hand and to be honest he was probably a little rattled when that happened. I can't blame him if that was the case.

Again, 4-8 with a HR, an open base, with garbage in the on deck circle. I disagree with the walk, but the thinking isn't insane. It's just an over think.

100% it was . Players still have to perform . You can’t get beat by a guy hitting .150 in a lefty lefty matchup . Chapman can’t let a piece of garbage like Rajai Davis take him deep.



The intentional walk is the defensive analog to the sacrifice bunt. It occurs far more than it should. I don't even want to get into the idiocy of doing it on a 1-2 count.

LaRussa loves to sacrifice with men on first and second. If you don't think your hitter can drive in runners from first and second, he shouldn't be batting in that spot.

And If you don't think your pitcher can get a guy out off a 1-2 count, he shouldn't be on the team.


Mully said this morning that it was the first time in MLB history that ever happened.


It's a "cute" manager move. Like intentionally walking a guy with the bases loaded. Even if it works out, it was idiotic. But the guy who did it gets talked about.

The manager should put the nine best guys on the field ordered from best hitter to worst and then get the fuck out of the way.


I disagree.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:04 am 
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Seacrest wrote:
Mully said this morning that it was the first time in MLB history that ever happened.


First time someone issued an intentional walk with a 1-2 count? As dumb as it is, seems hard to believe it was the first.

I agree with most here that it was a crazy move, but aside from the specific batter/pitcher stats I'd like to see the probabilities of getting a third out with a runner at second vs first and second. I'm pretty sure it helps a bit to maintain the force out, though it could also lead to a bigger inning.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:10 am 
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Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

It's a "cute" manager move. Like intentionally walking a guy with the bases loaded. Even if it works out, it was idiotic. But the guy who did it gets talked about.

The manager should put the nine best guys on the field ordered from best hitter to worst and then get the fuck out of the way.


I disagree.



Could you expound on that?

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:15 am 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
Mully said this morning that it was the first time in MLB history that ever happened.


First time someone issued an intentional walk with a 1-2 count? As dumb as it is, seems hard to believe it was the first.

I agree with most here that it was a crazy move, but aside from the specific batter/pitcher stats I'd like to see the probabilities of getting a third out with a runner at second vs first and second. I'm pretty sure it helps a bit to maintain the force out, though it could also lead to a bigger inning.



This is where the interpretation of statistics and what we call "SABRmetrics" gets confusing. The entire basis for how most fans in the post-Moneyball era view the game- yeah, I'm looking at you bernstein and Joe Sheehan- is that a batter's job is to "not make out." And that a pitcher's job is to "limit baserunners." If that's the case, isn't intentionally walking a guy a success for the batter?

That isn't a real question. I know the answer. Because it's obvious that a batter's job is not simply "not making out" and a pitcher's job is not simply "limiting baserunners."

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:19 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

It's a "cute" manager move. Like intentionally walking a guy with the bases loaded. Even if it works out, it was idiotic. But the guy who did it gets talked about.

The manager should put the nine best guys on the field ordered from best hitter to worst and then get the fuck out of the way.


I disagree.



Could you expound on that?


If your 7-9 hitters are mediocre or suck, you're essentially screwing your #6 hitter by not providing them with any protection. You have to sandwich at least 1 mediocre hitter between your good hitters to maximize the effectiveness of your lineup. If not, you only have a lineup that is good 1-5.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:22 am 
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Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

It's a "cute" manager move. Like intentionally walking a guy with the bases loaded. Even if it works out, it was idiotic. But the guy who did it gets talked about.

The manager should put the nine best guys on the field ordered from best hitter to worst and then get the fuck out of the way.


I disagree.



Could you expound on that?


If your 7-9 hitters are mediocre or suck, you're essentially screwing your #6 hitter by not providing them with any protection. You have to sandwich at least 1 mediocre hitter between your good hitters to maximize the effectiveness of your lineup. If not, you only have a lineup that is good 1-5.


The numbers show that the concept of "protection" is a myth. I get that it's conventional wisdom that you have a couple popgun hitters at the top and then the big bats drive them in. But realistically, how many times does that occur during the season?

I know this much. When I look at my team's stats at the end of the season and Tim Anderson has more at-bats than Luis Robert and Jose Abreu, I did something wrong. And my team almost certainly scored less runs that it would have if it were the other way around.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:25 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

It's a "cute" manager move. Like intentionally walking a guy with the bases loaded. Even if it works out, it was idiotic. But the guy who did it gets talked about.

The manager should put the nine best guys on the field ordered from best hitter to worst and then get the fuck out of the way.


I disagree.



Could you expound on that?


If your 7-9 hitters are mediocre or suck, you're essentially screwing your #6 hitter by not providing them with any protection. You have to sandwich at least 1 mediocre hitter between your good hitters to maximize the effectiveness of your lineup. If not, you only have a lineup that is good 1-5.


The numbers show that the concept of "protection" is a myth. I get that it's conventional wisdom that you have a couple popgun hitters at the top and then the big bats drive them in. But realistically, how many times does that occur during the season?

I know this much. When I look at my team's stats at the end of the season and Tim Anderson has more at-bats than Luis Robert and Jose Abreu, I did something wrong. And my team almost certainly scored less runs that it would have if it were the other way around.


Putting your big bats first hasn't exactly worked either. Kind of like making a closer a setup guy. There is something mentally that goes on that makes them less effective.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:34 am 
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Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

It's a "cute" manager move. Like intentionally walking a guy with the bases loaded. Even if it works out, it was idiotic. But the guy who did it gets talked about.

The manager should put the nine best guys on the field ordered from best hitter to worst and then get the fuck out of the way.


I disagree.



Could you expound on that?


If your 7-9 hitters are mediocre or suck, you're essentially screwing your #6 hitter by not providing them with any protection. You have to sandwich at least 1 mediocre hitter between your good hitters to maximize the effectiveness of your lineup. If not, you only have a lineup that is good 1-5.


The numbers show that the concept of "protection" is a myth. I get that it's conventional wisdom that you have a couple popgun hitters at the top and then the big bats drive them in. But realistically, how many times does that occur during the season?

I know this much. When I look at my team's stats at the end of the season and Tim Anderson has more at-bats than Luis Robert and Jose Abreu, I did something wrong. And my team almost certainly scored less runs that it would have if it were the other way around.


Putting your big bats first hasn't exactly worked either. Kind of like making a closer a setup guy. There is something mentally that goes on that makes them less effective.


Nobody's ever really done it though. I know Bill James has agitated for it in Boston, but up until now it's been a bridge too far. Just like using your best reliever in the highest leverage situations, e.g. seventh inning in a 2-1 game with one out and two on, rather than holding him for the last three outs of the game.

Baseball is a traditional hidebound game. Radical changes aren't readily accepted.

Anyway, an old school guy like LaRussa would argue that the lineup is constructed to win today's game rather than score the most runs over the course of the season. I don't disagree with that theoretically. What I don't believe is that any manager is smart enough to figure out which specific lineup is going to be best on a specific day and so just getting the best hitters the most possible at-bats seems to be the best idea.

I would have batted Frank Thomas leadoff. But the 60 or however many homers he would have hit leading off games would have been lamented because of the theory that Tim Raines and/or Ray Durham could have been on base. That doesn't take into account all the extra hits/homers Thomas would have gotten over the course of his career when he came up that extra time in a game that only occurred because he batted two spots higher in the order. And some of those hits would have been meaningful.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 9:13 am 
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I'm sure it has been done. Find the regression analysis of RBIs, yes RBI(S!!!), based on batting order position.

I'd be shocked if 3-4-5 isn't the highest for RBIsssssss.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 9:38 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
And If you don't think your pitcher can get a guy out off a 1-2 count, he shouldn't be on the team.

This is the bottom line as far as I am concerned. If you have a batter down 1-2 you should be confident in getting him out. For LaRussa to walk him at that point basically tells the pitcher that he has zero confidence in him.

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 Post subject: Re: Dodgers @ Sox
PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2022 9:49 am 
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Theres just as much on Sousa for not being able to get a .160 hitter out.

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