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Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
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Author:  Nas [ Wed Dec 16, 2015 6:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Jake had a once in a lifetime season. He regresses to the mean and that's 4-6 less wins right there.


Why? His ERA won't be as great but he can win 20 games with this offense.
Author:  Kirkwood [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Frank Coztansa wrote:
In all seriousness though Kirkwood, I believe the MLB record is actually 108 years and its not in all that serious of jeopardy.

I have no idea why you addressed me in stating this fantastic rarely known tidbit.
Author:  rogers park bryan [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
I thought this was Hahn's 3rd off season?
Author:  Brick [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
rogers park bryan wrote:
I thought this was Hahn's 3rd off season?
KENNY
Author:  BigW72 [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Comparing offseasons and added wins is ridiculous. The Cubs margin of increase is much smaller given they had 96 wins. The Sox have way more potential for improvement.

Lawrie is an upgrade...not special, but an upgrade. Frazier is a clear upgrade at critical position.

I still see upgrades needed at Catcher, DH, and the OF. They look improved but hard to get excited and consider them a playoff contender.

God, I hate Adam LaRoche.
Author:  RFDC [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
They got a slight upgrade at catcher.

OF and DH are issues tho, no doubt.
Author:  BigW72 [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Agreed Catcher is a slight upgrade. My point is it wasn't nearly enough of an upgrade.
Author:  whiskey dick [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Jake had a once in a lifetime season. He regresses to the mean and that's 4-6 less wins right there.


Arietta was basically just as good in 2014.

2014 WAR per start: 0.20 (25 starts)
2015 WAR per start: 0.22 (33 starts)
Author:  America [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Fucking WAR per start I've seen it all.
Author:  THE INQUISITOR [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
America wrote:
Fucking WAR per start I've seen it all.


How about WAR per IP... per AB ... or even per pitch?????

Where does it end......
Author:  whiskey dick [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
America wrote:
Fucking WAR per start I've seen it all.


A quick glance shows you this:

2014: 5.0 WAR
2015: 7.3 WAR

But he had 8 fewer starts in 2014, so he was basically just as effective.
Author:  America [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
THE INQUISITOR wrote:
America wrote:
Fucking WAR per start I've seen it all.


How about WAR per IP... per AB ... or even per pitch?????

Where does it end......

WAR PER WAR

it doesn't end. we are doomed to an endless stream of new stats for all eternity.
Author:  whiskey dick [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Why does this scare you?
Author:  America [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Scare? Lol. Let's walk it back a little.

What you did was either invent something or read something on a blog (my bet is the latter) that shrunk the WAR statistic from a season-long stat to a per game stat to make the difference appear more minimal.

.22 is 10% higher than .20. That is substantial. You wouldn't just be able to wash away that difference if it was between, say, 220 and 200. Its no different than an optical illusion.

In 2015 Arrieta had an ERA .75 points lower than 2014. He pitched 75 more innings in 2015. He walked fewer batters in 2015. Strikeouts rates were about the same. He was better in 2015 than he was in 2014, I don't give a fuck what your bullshit WAR per start napkin math says.*

* even though it too says Arrieta was better in 15 than 14.
Author:  Brick [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
My greatest shame of the past year is whiskey dick.
Author:  good dolphin [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
America wrote:
Its no different than an optical illusion..


Image
Author:  whiskey dick [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
America wrote:
Scare? Lol. Let's walk it back a little.

What you did was either invent something or read something on a blog (my bet is the latter) that shrunk the WAR statistic from a season-long stat to a per game stat to make the difference appear more minimal.

.22 is 10% higher than .20. That is substantial. You wouldn't just be able to wash away that difference if it was between, say, 220 and 200. Its no different than an optical illusion.

In 2015 Arrieta had an ERA .75 points lower than 2014. He pitched 75 more innings in 2015. He walked fewer batters in 2015. Strikeouts rates were about the same. He was better in 2015 than he was in 2014, I don't give a fuck what your bullshit WAR per start napkin math says.*

* even though it too says Arrieta was better in 15 than 14.


I said he was basically just as effective. If you extrapolated the 2014 WAR numbers to the 2015 GS mark, he'd have finished at 6.6 (vs 7.3). I don't see that as particularly substantial, especially in this context (where people say he had a once in a lifetime season & is due for regression). His FIP numbers, K/9, HR/9, etc were all right around the same range. He allowed a BABIP nearly 30 points lower in 2015, which could help to explain the difference in ERA. But ERA is one of the last things you should be looking at, anyway.

Analyze his fangraphs page and you'll find that he's been pretty much the same pitcher since the beginning of 2014.
Author:  BD [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
They still need another legitimate run producer in the #4 or #5 slot in that lineup.

Most days, I view:
#1: A.Eaton
#2: M.Cabrera
#3: J.Abreu
#4: ______
#5 T.Frazier
#6:B.Lawrie
#7:A.La Roche / A.Garcia (DH)
#8: C
#9: SS

Right now, Frazier and Lawrie are either moved up or Cabrera down in the order, and La Roche / Garcia still probably have too much importance in this lineup. The bottom of this order still looks very week from #7 - #9 so they really need to be productive in the first part of the order.
Author:  America [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Don't look at the runs he gave up! No! He's a pitcher, nobody cares if he gives up any runs. That's the last thing you should be looking at.
Author:  good dolphin [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
BD wrote:
They still need another legitimate run producer in the #4 or #5 slot in that lineup.

Most days, I view:
#1: A.Eaton
#2: M.Cabrera
#3: J.Abreu
#4: ______
#5 T.Frazier
#6:B.Lawrie
#7:A.La Roche / A.Garcia (DH)
#8: C
#9: SS

Right now, Frazier and Lawrie are either moved up or Cabrera down in the order, and La Roche / Garcia still probably have too much importance in this lineup. The bottom of this order still looks very week from #7 - #9 so they really need to be productive in the first part of the order.


Agreed. They are still one big bat away from being a low level contender. La Roche's presence is really gumming up the works.
Author:  312player [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 3:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Jake had a once in a lifetime season. He regresses to the mean and that's 4-6 less wins right there.



You think Greinke had one as well? He regresses too?
Author:  whiskey dick [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
America wrote:
Don't look at the runs he gave up! No! He's a pitcher, nobody cares if he gives up any runs. That's the last thing you should be looking at.


You got my nuanced manner of speak mixed up twice in this response.

Yes, raw ERA is one of the last things that you should be looking at because it's a bit too dependant on team defense. I didn't say that you should disregard it altogether.
Author:  Brick [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
whiskey dick wrote:
America wrote:
Don't look at the runs he gave up! No! He's a pitcher, nobody cares if he gives up any runs. That's the last thing you should be looking at.


You got my nuanced manner of speak mixed up twice in this response.

Yes, raw ERA is one of the last things that you should be looking at because it's a bit too dependant on team defense. I didn't say that you should disregard it altogether.
Instead we should rely on a made up statistics like WAR?
Author:  whiskey dick [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
whiskey dick wrote:
America wrote:
Don't look at the runs he gave up! No! He's a pitcher, nobody cares if he gives up any runs. That's the last thing you should be looking at.


You got my nuanced manner of speak mixed up twice in this response.

Yes, raw ERA is one of the last things that you should be looking at because it's a bit too dependant on team defense. I didn't say that you should disregard it altogether.
Instead we should rely on a made up statistics like WAR?


It's commonly regarded as the industry standard by REALLY SMART PEOPLE.

But if you don't care for it, then whatever. There's a whole shitload of useful statistics at your disposal. Knock yourself out.
Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
whiskey dick wrote:
It's commonly regarded as the industry standard by REALLY SMART PEOPLE.



Really? They can't even agree on a single version of it. I'd say it's regarded as the industry standard of fans who want to act like they know more about baseball than somebody else.
Author:  Brick [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
whiskey dick wrote:
It's commonly regarded as the industry standard by REALLY SMART PEOPLE.
By who? Those who sell magazines and subscriptions to baseball fans?

I'm going to take a wild guess and say that GM's aren't saying "This guy has a WAR of X, we must get him".
Author:  Hatchetman [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
WAR is good. Use the fangraphs one.
Author:  whiskey dick [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
whiskey dick wrote:
It's commonly regarded as the industry standard by REALLY SMART PEOPLE.
By who? Those who sell magazines and subscriptions to baseball fans?

I'm going to take a wild guess and say that GM's aren't saying "This guy has a WAR of X, we must get him".


It's embraced by people who aren't living in the stone age. And of course it's imperfect - that goes without saying.

But again, there is a shitload of useful statistics at your disposal. There is no need to rely on an antiquated stat like raw ERA.
Author:  Brick [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
It is not "imperfect". It is made up.
Author:  Hatchetman [ Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
It is not "imperfect". It is made up.


So is the theory of evolution
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