So is the theory of evolution

That stat alone makes WAR a bunch of horseshit.

The White Sox win a minimum of 80 games last year in the NL. Impossible to say otherwise. The only AL teams that have been tanking (the Astros and perhaps the Twins... maybe the A's but who knows what Beane is doing) won some games this year.

Meanwhile the Brewers, Reds (97 wins already doesn't sound so impressive), Phillies, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rockies and Braves had completely given up. Sabean noticed this years ago and decided to go for it every year. He got three rings because he had the common sense to see that if only 5 or 6 teams in his league are actively competing his odds of NL pennants (and thus World Series opportunities) goes up dramatically. The Diamondbacks came to this same realization and are trying to strike while the rebuilding fad makes the NL about as difficult as the International League.

Renny have been trying this same tactic for years now in the AL, but because everyone tries to win the AL and ~1/3 of the games aren't against team actively trying to lose it doesn't work.

Jeff Samardzija, who sucked last year, finished 39th amongst the 78 qualified starters in Fangraphs WAR for the 2015 season.

I have no idea why you addressed me in stating this fantastic rarely known tidbit.

Instead we should rely on a made up statistics like WAR?

Renny .

FYI ERA was also a made up stat at one point.

FYI ERA was also a made up stat at one point.

War was useless to me when it said Zobrist was better than Pujols in his prime.

You could just look at oWAR and it would have been fine.

This is the problem though. WAR gets cited all the time as some sort of answer when it fits their agenda. But then you have to ignore 50% of it when it just doesn't make sense at all.

This is the problem though. WAR gets cited all the time as some sort of answer when it fits their agenda. But then you have to ignore 50% of it when it just doesn't make sense at all.

But I have to admit that I am perplexed as to how this occurred:

Felix Hernandez: 2.8 WAR (31 starts)
Jeff Samardzija: 2.7 WAR (32 starts)

I think most of the time when there is a big defensive component to the BR WAR, people know it and understand it.


The Fangraphs one is a little better.

That isn't how it is used though. It's normally cited just like someone's OPS or OPS+ which is simply a statistic.

Well that's misuse (widespread as it may be). Not the stat's fault.

The stat is a very good one but like everything else there is context

It is the stats fault. You just said that you have to ignore 50% of it and then it makes sense.

How can you even trust it as anything useful?

He will do well for the Giants next year and everyone will tout the "predictive capabilities of WAR" while ignoring the obvious.

He will have a losing record next year and everyone will ignore the predictive capabilities of his previous losing records and say he once again suffered from "a lack of run support".

I didnt say you have to ignore it. There are times when its obvious the defensive part is a little overvalued (particularly when a guy plays multiple positions like Zobrist or Lawrie) but for the most part it's fine.

Also the fangraphs version is fine. Dont have to ignore anything there.

But if he does have a winning record, you wont take that as a shot at W-L%, you'll say he just had a good year.

It goes both ways.

He will do well for the Giants next year and everyone will tout the "predictive capabilities of WAR" while ignoring the obvious.

The NL is basically AAAA compared to the AL. Jake Arrieta couldn't keep his ERA below 5 for the Orioles but he waltzes into the NL and !FREE STRIKEOUTS! and he's a Cy Young winner. It's that easy. If you're a bad major league player, particularly a pitcher, the NL is a godsend.

I don't think he will have a winning record though. And if he does it will be a weak one, like 13-12. Because he's no fucking good.