Chicago Fanatics Message Board :: View topic

rogers park bryan wrote:

Boilermaker Rick wrote:

rogers park bryan wrote:

Well that's misuse (widespread as it may be). Not the stat's fault.

The stat is a very good one but like everything else there is context

It is the stats fault. You just said that you have to ignore 50% of it and then it makes sense.

How can you even trust it as anything useful?

I didnt say you have to ignore it. There are times when its obvious the defensive part is a little overvalued (particularly when a guy plays multiple positions like Zobrist or Lawrie) but for the most part it's fine.

Also the fangraphs version is fine. Dont have to ignore anything there.

There is another thing. You have two version of the same "stat". If they can't even agree then why should anyone take it seriously?

Think of other industries. Different financial firms have different formulas to figure out value. You dont discount them because they arent uniform.

Its misuse of the stat that is the problem, imo

But Im not forcing it on anyone. Use OPS and UZR is you want

rogers park bryan wrote:

Think of other industries. Different financial firms have different formulas to figure out value. You dont discount them because they arent uniform.

It all adds up though. Imagine if someone said about that formula "It makes more sense if you ignore 50% of it".

rogers park bryan wrote:

Its misuse of the stat that is the problem, imo

But Im not forcing it on anyone. Use OPS and UZR is you want

No, it's the use of the stat as an answer. Just look at this thread. WAR was cited, without context, as an answer to a question.

If a pitcher loses, how can his war be higher than anyone? "wins above replacement".

WAR - WHAT IS IT GOOD FOR?

ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!!

Nas wrote:

Boilermaker Rick wrote:

As a neutral observer, fairly obvious that the Sox will have a higher increase in wins than the Cubs.

If the Cubs get another top of the rotation arm they could be a 110 win team with the offense they have. Your prediction is very safe.

Another issue I have with Nas. This is ridiculous. They will not win 110 games.

whiskey dick wrote:

But I have to admit that I am perplexed as to how this occurred:

Felix Hernandez: 2.8 WAR (31 starts)
Jeff Samardzija: 2.7 WAR (32 starts)

Maybe it should cause you to stop blindly accepting WAR as some kind of truth. Unless, of course, you want to make the argument that these guys were similar pitchers last season.

I think this offseason has gone better than last year. I never liked the LaRoche signing and Melky looked like a decent signing for the immediate future, but given his age, not an especially good one. But Frazier is a player in his prime and will greatly improve the 3B position, while Lawrie probably upgrades 2B as well. Avila and Navarro certainly should improve the hitting from the C position. It hasn't been the splashy offseason some teams have had, but I think it has been a better one than last year for the Sox. I will be shocked if they don't improve their win total by 10 games. It won't be enough to get a playoff berth, but they will be better. That said, with no real chance to contend, I think the strategy the Sox have employed was foolish. They should have traded away higher priced players like Robertson and Cabrerra if possible as well as Quintana, who could have brought a good prospect or two in return and done a complete rebuild. Even Sale should have been made available, as by the time they are contending again, he will be past his prime.

Elmhurst Steve wrote:

10 wins is 86 games won, which made the playoffs last year.

Boilermaker Rick wrote:

Elmhurst Steve wrote:

10 wins is 86 games won, which made the playoffs last year.

Yes, and it could be good enough this season too. But the team would be a wild card and be eliminated in the wild card or ALDS should they qualify. I see the Royals and the Tigers in their division alone, as stronger teams. I doubt 86 wins will be good enough in 2016. There is a greater disparity between the haves and have-nots this season. I don't see the parity in Baseball being present like it was to a large degree last year. In any case, while the Sox should be improved, I don't see them as genuine contenders like the Royals, Cubs, and Astros.

I see the Royals and the Tigers in their division alone, as stronger teams.

Elmhurst Steve wrote:

I see the Royals and the Tigers in their division alone, as stronger teams.

Lay off the egg nog, Chief.

Whitesox in the celler.

Whitesox in the celler. Melky and Garcia blow as corner OFs.

, hesva better outfielder than 3rd base..and he's average @ 3rd.

nancykwan wrote:

Whitesox in the celler. Melky and Garcia blow as corner OFs.

Bryant and Kyle DH are sure to be defensive juggernauts in the corner outfield positions for your team.

Author:	rogers park bryan [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:34 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Boilermaker Rick wrote: rogers park bryan wrote: Boilermaker Rick wrote: rogers park bryan wrote: Well that's misuse (widespread as it may be). Not the stat's fault. The stat is a very good one but like everything else there is context It is the stats fault. You just said that you have to ignore 50% of it and then it makes sense. How can you even trust it as anything useful? I didnt say you have to ignore it. There are times when its obvious the defensive part is a little overvalued (particularly when a guy plays multiple positions like Zobrist or Lawrie) but for the most part it's fine. Also the fangraphs version is fine. Dont have to ignore anything there. There is another thing. You have two version of the same "stat". If they can't even agree then why should anyone take it seriously? Why? Think of other industries. Different financial firms have different formulas to figure out value. You dont discount them because they arent uniform. Its misuse of the stat that is the problem, imo But Im not forcing it on anyone. Use OPS and UZR is you want

Author:	Brick [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:39 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
rogers park bryan wrote: Think of other industries. Different financial firms have different formulas to figure out value. You dont discount them because they arent uniform. It all adds up though. Imagine if someone said about that formula "It makes more sense if you ignore 50% of it". rogers park bryan wrote: Its misuse of the stat that is the problem, imo But Im not forcing it on anyone. Use OPS and UZR is you want No, it's the use of the stat as an answer. Just look at this thread. WAR was cited, without context, as an answer to a question.

Author:	rogers park bryan [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:41 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Boilermaker Rick wrote: rogers park bryan wrote: Think of other industries. Different financial firms have different formulas to figure out value. You dont discount them because they arent uniform. It all adds up though. Imagine if someone said about that formula "It makes more sense if you ignore 50% of it". rogers park bryan wrote: Its misuse of the stat that is the problem, imo But Im not forcing it on anyone. Use OPS and UZR is you want No, it's the use of the stat as an answer. Just look at this thread. WAR was cited, without context, as an answer to a question. Seems like you're agreeing with me. That's incorrect use.

Author:	Joe Orr Road Rod [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 10:39 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
I draw a distinction between the way a GM necessarily has to (or at least should) look at the game and the way I look at the game as a fan. For example, take a guy like Edwin Jackson. You look at his WAR from 2008 until the Cubs got him in 2013 and those numbers suggested that in spite of all the bad losing records, he was pitching better than it seemed and he was in what should have been his prime and likely to translate those esoteric numbers into practical results within the next few seasons. I thought that myself. That's why there was the market for him there was and that's why Epstein signed him. Alas, his W/L records were actually more predictive of his abilities than WAR. At the time the Cubs could have had Anibal Sanchez who went to Detroit. Another loser. Detroit was able to squeeze his best season out of him before he went back to what he is- mediocrity personified. I don't really like Jose Quintana. I heard John Smoltz talking about the White Sox last night. He said the Sox need a "1A" to go with Sale. I agree. I hope it's Rodon. I'm sure it's not Quintana. But I will point out that Quintana is averaging a higher WAR per season than Smoltz did throughout his career even if we don't count the last three (terrible) seasons for Smoltz.

Author:	Gloopan Kuratz [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 10:42 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
If a pitcher loses, how can his war be higher than anyone? "wins above replacement".

Chicago Fanatics Message Board http://chicagofanatics.com/

Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=97755	Page 4 of 5

Author:	walkrman5 [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 10:53 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Gloopan Kuratz wrote: WAR - WHAT IS IT GOOD FOR? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!! say it again

Author:	IMU [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 10:56 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Nas wrote: Boilermaker Rick wrote: As a neutral observer, fairly obvious that the Sox will have a higher increase in wins than the Cubs. If the Cubs get another top of the rotation arm they could be a 110 win team with the offense they have. Your prediction is very safe. Another issue I have with Nas. This is ridiculous. They will not win 110 games. You're right. They'd have to endure a lot of injuries to win 110.

Author:	whiskey dick [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:17 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: whiskey dick wrote: But I have to admit that I am perplexed as to how this occurred: Felix Hernandez: 2.8 WAR (31 starts) Jeff Samardzija: 2.7 WAR (32 starts) Maybe it should cause you to stop blindly accepting WAR as some kind of truth. Unless, of course, you want to make the argument that these guys were similar pitchers last season. It's only one tree in the forest, though (albeit a retarded one). Felix Hernandez has 50 WAR over the course of his career, and he's only 29. My first instinct is to learn why he had such a low WAR in 2015, as opposed to outright dismissing it. According to fangraphs, the pitch value of his fastball was crap last year, even though he didn't lose any velocity. His slider also received a negative rating. His HR/FB ratio went up by 50%. He allowed a career high in homers. Maybe he had an inordinate amount of long flyouts which could have been homers outside of Safeco.

Author:	IMU [ Fri Dec 18, 2015 4:00 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Felix pitches in one of the best pitcher's parks, and Samardzija pitched in one of the best hitter's parks. That is one part of it.

Author:	Elmhurst Steve [ Wed Dec 23, 2015 10:29 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
I think this offseason has gone better than last year. I never liked the LaRoche signing and Melky looked like a decent signing for the immediate future, but given his age, not an especially good one. But Frazier is a player in his prime and will greatly improve the 3B position, while Lawrie probably upgrades 2B as well. Avila and Navarro certainly should improve the hitting from the C position. It hasn't been the splashy offseason some teams have had, but I think it has been a better one than last year for the Sox. I will be shocked if they don't improve their win total by 10 games. It won't be enough to get a playoff berth, but they will be better. That said, with no real chance to contend, I think the strategy the Sox have employed was foolish. They should have traded away higher priced players like Robertson and Cabrerra if possible as well as Quintana, who could have brought a good prospect or two in return and done a complete rebuild. Even Sale should have been made available, as by the time they are contending again, he will be past his prime.

Author:	Brick [ Wed Dec 23, 2015 10:32 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Elmhurst Steve wrote: I think this offseason has gone better than last year. I never liked the LaRoche signing and Melky looked like a decent signing for the immediate future, but given his age, not an especially good one. But Frazier is a player in his prime and will greatly improve the 3B position, while Lawrie probably upgrades 2B as well. Avila and Navarro certainly should improve the hitting from the C position. It hasn't been the splashy offseason some teams have had, but I think it has been a better one than last year for the Sox. I will be shocked if they don't improve their win total by 10 games. It won't be enough to get a playoff berth, but they will be better. That said, with no real chance to contend, I think the strategy the Sox have employed was foolish. They should have traded away higher priced players like Robertson and Cabrerra if possible as well as Quintana, who could have brought a good prospect or two in return and done a complete rebuild. Even Sale should have been made available, as by the time they are contending again, he will be past his prime. 10 wins is 86 games won, which made the playoffs last year.

Author:	pittmike [ Wed Dec 23, 2015 10:34 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
10 game improvement would be most welcomed.

Author:	Elmhurst Steve [ Fri Dec 25, 2015 10:43 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Boilermaker Rick wrote: Elmhurst Steve wrote: I think this offseason has gone better than last year. I never liked the LaRoche signing and Melky looked like a decent signing for the immediate future, but given his age, not an especially good one. But Frazier is a player in his prime and will greatly improve the 3B position, while Lawrie probably upgrades 2B as well. Avila and Navarro certainly should improve the hitting from the C position. It hasn't been the splashy offseason some teams have had, but I think it has been a better one than last year for the Sox. I will be shocked if they don't improve their win total by 10 games. It won't be enough to get a playoff berth, but they will be better. That said, with no real chance to contend, I think the strategy the Sox have employed was foolish. They should have traded away higher priced players like Robertson and Cabrerra if possible as well as Quintana, who could have brought a good prospect or two in return and done a complete rebuild. Even Sale should have been made available, as by the time they are contending again, he will be past his prime. 10 wins is 86 games won, which made the playoffs last year. Yes, and it could be good enough this season too. But the team would be a wild card and be eliminated in the wild card or ALDS should they qualify. I see the Royals and the Tigers in their division alone, as stronger teams. I doubt 86 wins will be good enough in 2016. There is a greater disparity between the haves and have-nots this season. I don't see the parity in Baseball being present like it was to a large degree last year. In any case, while the Sox should be improved, I don't see them as genuine contenders like the Royals, Cubs, and Astros.

Author:	Joe Orr Road Rod [ Fri Dec 25, 2015 10:52 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Elmhurst Steve wrote: Boilermaker Rick wrote: Elmhurst Steve wrote: I think this offseason has gone better than last year. I never liked the LaRoche signing and Melky looked like a decent signing for the immediate future, but given his age, not an especially good one. But Frazier is a player in his prime and will greatly improve the 3B position, while Lawrie probably upgrades 2B as well. Avila and Navarro certainly should improve the hitting from the C position. It hasn't been the splashy offseason some teams have had, but I think it has been a better one than last year for the Sox. I will be shocked if they don't improve their win total by 10 games. It won't be enough to get a playoff berth, but they will be better. That said, with no real chance to contend, I think the strategy the Sox have employed was foolish. They should have traded away higher priced players like Robertson and Cabrerra if possible as well as Quintana, who could have brought a good prospect or two in return and done a complete rebuild. Even Sale should have been made available, as by the time they are contending again, he will be past his prime. 10 wins is 86 games won, which made the playoffs last year. Yes, and it could be good enough this season too. But the team would be a wild card and be eliminated in the wild card or ALDS should they qualify. I see the Royals and the Tigers in their division alone, as stronger teams. I doubt 86 wins will be good enough in 2016. There is a greater disparity between the haves and have-nots this season. I don't see the parity in Baseball being present like it was to a large degree last year. In any case, while the Sox should be improved, I don't see them as genuine contenders like the Royals, Cubs, and Astros. Do you think the disparity between the AL and the shitty NL will be greater than 34 games?

Author:	IMU [ Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:27 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
I don't know where he ends up, but he wasn't brutal at 3B. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &players=0

Author:	312player [ Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:04 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Good dolphin should be banned from the mlb section until after the all-star break.

Author:	Caller Bob [ Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:16 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Ian Happ homered again tonight, how is AAA Fullmer doing? #PoorMan'sTheoAtBest

Author:	Caller Bob [ Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:22 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
I think I would even rate Ryan Pace's drafting ability over Dick Hahn's at this point. #HeyItsKennysFault

Author:	Keyser Soze [ Fri Dec 25, 2015 11:27 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Elmhurst Steve wrote: I see the Royals and the Tigers in their division alone, as stronger teams. Lay off the egg nog, Chief.

Author:	nancykwan [ Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:07 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Keyser Soze wrote: Elmhurst Steve wrote: I see the Royals and the Tigers in their division alone, as stronger teams. Lay off the egg nog, Chief. Whitesox in the celler. Melky and Garcia blow as corner OFs.

Author:	Chus [ Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:45 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
nancykwan wrote: Whitesox in the celler.

Author:	Frank Coztansa [ Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:29 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
nancykwan wrote: Whitesox in the celler. Melky and Garcia blow as corner OFs. Bryant and Kyle DH are sure to be defensive juggernauts in the corner outfield positions for your team.

Author:	312player [ Sun Jan 24, 2016 1:10 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
I don't see Bryant having any problems in @ any outfield position, hesva better outfielder than 3rd base..and he's average @ 3rd.

Author:	good dolphin [ Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:58 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
312player wrote: , hesva better outfielder than 3rd base..and he's average @ 3rd.

Author:	IMU [ Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:57 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons

Author:	Arlington Hts Archie [ Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:14 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Frank Coztansa wrote: nancykwan wrote: Whitesox in the celler. Melky and Garcia blow as corner OFs. Bryant and Kyle DH are sure to be defensive juggernauts in the corner outfield positions for your team. Bryant is a 3rd baseman. He was surprisingly good after shaking off his early ball patting habit.

Author:	Brick [ Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:14 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
Soon to be 3-0.

Author:	312player [ Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:19 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
The title of this thread should be 0-3, more fake news in the Sox section.

Author:	FavreFan [ Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:23 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Hahn 2-0 In Off Seasons
^^^Cub fan jealousy rearing its ugly head again.

Page 4 of 5	All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group https://www.phpbb.com/