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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:06 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
immessedup17 wrote:
He can't get open to even shoot many uncontested shots.


Then how the fuck is he shooting 60% from inside the arc?

40% of his FGA are from 0-3 feet from the basket.

Defenses sometimes lose him under the basket

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 6:45 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Once again, if you get a solid contributor off the bench with that pick it was a good one. He'll become one.

There are guys that were drafted later who will be better. If all you are looking for is a solid contributor off the bench then you don't have to trade up. You should expect a starter with a no.11 pick. San Antonio ' s entire starting line up with the exception of
Duncan was drafted after no. 11. How do you explain that?

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 6:52 pm 
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long time guy wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Once again, if you get a solid contributor off the bench with that pick it was a good one. He'll become one.

There are guys that were drafted later who will be better. If all you are looking for is a solid contributor off the bench then you don't have to trade up. You should expect a starter with a no.11 pick. San Antonio ' s entire starting line up with the exception of
Duncan was drafted after no. 11. How do you explain that?
This doesn't fit in with the reality of what the 11th pick gets you.

You may get a starter but it should not be expected because it isn't likely.

Quote:
11th Overall NBA Draft Picks
Year Player Drafted From Drafted By
2013 Michael Carter-Williams Syracuse Philadelphia
2012 Meyers Leonard Illinois Portland
2011 Klay Thompson Washington St. Golden State
2010 Cole Aldrich Kansas New Orleans
2009 Terrence Williams Louisville New Jersey
2008 Jerryd Bayless Arizona Indiana
2007 Acie Law Texas A&M Atlanta
2006 JJ Redick Duke Orlando
2005 Fran Vazquez Spain 1983 Orlando
2004 Andris Biedrins Latvia 1986 Golden State
2003 Mickaël Pietrus France 1982 Golden State
2002 Jared Jeffries IndianaSo. Washington
2001 Kedrick Brown Okaloosa-Walton CC So. Boston
2000 Jerome Moiso UCLA So. Boston


A few hits. A lot more misses.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 6:58 pm 
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Maybe Dougie McBuckets needs his eyes checked.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 7:11 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
long time guy wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Once again, if you get a solid contributor off the bench with that pick it was a good one. He'll become one.

There are guys that were drafted later who will be better. If all you are looking for is a solid contributor off the bench then you don't have to trade up. You should expect a starter with a no.11 pick. San Antonio ' s entire starting line up with the exception of
Duncan was drafted after no. 11. How do you explain that?
This doesn't fit in with the reality of what the 11th pick gets you.

You may get a starter but it should not be expected because it isn't likely.

Quote:
11th Overall NBA Draft Picks
Year Player Drafted From Drafted By
2013 Michael Carter-Williams Syracuse Philadelphia
2012 Meyers Leonard Illinois Portland
2011 Klay Thompson Washington St. Golden State
2010 Cole Aldrich Kansas New Orleans
2009 Terrence Williams Louisville New Jersey
2008 Jerryd Bayless Arizona Indiana
2007 Acie Law Texas A&M Atlanta
2006 JJ Redick Duke Orlando
2005 Fran Vazquez Spain 1983 Orlando
2004 Andris Biedrins Latvia 1986 Golden State
2003 Mickaël Pietrus France 1982 Golden State
2002 Jared Jeffries IndianaSo. Washington
2001 Kedrick Brown Okaloosa-Walton CC So. Boston
2000 Jerome Moiso UCLA So. Boston


A few hits. A lot more misses.


That list is depressing and surprising. There are not that many great players in the world I guess. Appreciate them more?

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 7:32 pm 
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I never knew that the draft ended with the 11th pick. San Antonio ' s entire lineup was drafted after the 11th pick minus Duncan

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 7:51 pm 
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long time guy wrote:
I never knew that the draft ended with the 11th pick.
It's just an illustration of the kind of value you can expect with the 11th pick. I can promise you, outside of some anomalies, that it won't get better the further you go down.

long time guy wrote:
San Antonio ' s entire lineup was drafted after the 11th pick minus Duncan
That still doesn't change the expected value of the pick. San Antonio seems to outperform that expectation but I'm not sure we should expect every pick in the first round to be as good as that.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:02 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
long time guy wrote:
I never knew that the draft ended with the 11th pick.
It's just an illustration of the kind of value you can expect with the 11th pick. I can promise you, outside of some anomalies, that it won't get better the further you go down.

long time guy wrote:
San Antonio ' s entire lineup was drafted after the 11th pick minus Duncan
That still doesn't change the expected value of the pick. San Antonio seems to outperform that expectation but I'm not sure we should expect every pick in the first round to be as good as that.
If you look at each one of those drafts there were at least two to three guys better who were drafted later than the 11th pick. The better gms tend to find those players. There will be a number of guys in this yrs draft that will be better than McDermott. There were people that were picking him as a rookie of the yr. There were also a number of people that believed that he was a steal at 11. He appears to already be out of the rotation. That is not good especially considering the fact that his position was considered to be a position of need.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:15 pm 
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long time guy wrote:
If you look at each one of those drafts there were at least two to three guys better who were drafted later than the 11th pick.
Of course. That is just how the draft works. There are players who either get a lot better or are just missed by talent evaluators. That doesn't mean you should expect to get a starter with a pick that doesn't normally produce starters. It would be nice but you have to keep the context of the position of the pick.

long time guy wrote:
The better gms tend to find those players. There will be a number of guys in this yrs draft that will be better than McDermott. There were people that were picking him as a rookie of the yr. There were also a number of people that believed that he was a steal at 11. He appears to already be out of the rotation. That is not good especially considering the fact that his position was considered to be a position of need.
There were also people predicting him to get 3 minutes a game, so I guess there were a lot of wild thoughts about a guy who never played an NBA game.

It's a good pick if he becomes a contributor on the team. It's a great pick if he becomes a starter. It's a bad pick if he doesn't contribute. To expect them to get a starter with the 11th pick just doesn't match up with the reality of what actually happens. It's not even a lock to get a starter in the top 10.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:19 pm 
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In the 08 draft there were 9 guys drafted later than 11 who were better than Bayless and 10 in 07 better than law. I am going to look at the other drafts but your better gms find those guys. The Spurs found two hall of famers at the end of the first middle of the second. Paxson has done pretty good at that. I just think that McDermott is going to be a miss

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:26 pm 
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I don't know a single person that predicted him to get three minutes a game. The Memphis Grizzlies entire lineup minus Conley were drafted after 11. Paul and Griffin were high picks every other player drafted after 11. Rockets Harden and Howard every other starter drafted after 11. Thunder have Durant and Westbrook other players all drafted after 11.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:28 pm 
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long time guy wrote:
In the 08 draft there were 9 guys drafted later than 11 who were better than Bayless and 10 in 07 better than law. I am going to look at the other drafts but your better gms find those guys.
How many of them are playing starters minutes now? It doesn't matter if they were better. It matters if they are starters because that is what you are demanding of the 11th pick.

Here is a good example for the 2008 draft.
http://www.hoopsvibe.com/features/286623-what-if-redoing-the-2008-nba-draft

More than half of the top 15 picks aren't even contributors let alone starters. The 15th best player from the draft isn't even a starter.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:32 pm 
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long time guy wrote:
I don't know a single person that predicted him to get three minutes a game. The Memphis Grizzlies entire lineup minus Conley were drafted after 11. Paul and Griffin were high picks every other player drafted after 11. Rockets Harden and Howard every other starter drafted after 11. Thunder have Durant and Westbrook other players all drafted after 11.
I didn't say you can't find a starter after pick 11. You just shouldn't expect it.

The bottom line is that if you judge a GM for picks 11+ with "Did he get a starter?" you are almost always going to judge them poorly.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:33 pm 
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The NBA really is a crap shoot. Only the MLB draft is riskier.

I don't think you can look at any one year's pick and say it was a failure based on slot. Some years are stronger than others. Additionally, the draft would be pretty boring if skill was guaranteed in order of the draft. Having a Darko Milicic between Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony is hilarious. Especially since that was one of the strongest drafts ever.

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Last edited by IMU on Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:33 pm 
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I don't know a single person that predicted him to get three minutes a game. The Memphis Grizzlies entire lineup minus Conley were drafted after 11. Paul and Griffin were high picks every other player drafted after 11. Rockets Harden and Howard every other starter drafted after 11. Thunder have Durant and Westbrook other players all drafted after 11.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:35 pm 
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long time guy wrote:
I don't know a single person that predicted him to get three minutes a game. The Memphis Grizzlies entire lineup minus Conley were drafted after 11. Paul and Griffin were high picks every other player drafted after 11. Rockets Harden and Howard every other starter drafted after 11. Thunder have Durant and Westbrook other players all drafted after 11.

He is playing 11.6 minutes per game.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:39 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
long time guy wrote:
In the 08 draft there were 9 guys drafted later than 11 who were better than Bayless and 10 in 07 better than law. I am going to look at the other drafts but your better gms find those guys.
How many of them are playing starters minutes now? It doesn't matter if they were better. It matters if they are starters because that is what you are demanding of the 11th pick.

Here is a good example for the 2008 draft.
http://www.hoopsvibe.com/features/286623-what-if-redoing-the-2008-nba-draft

More than half of the top 15 picks aren't even contributors let alone starters. The 15th best player from the draft isn't even a starter.
From the 08 draft there are Seven guys picked after 11 that are starters in the NBA. I don't know where you get your info. From but you are wrong.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:42 pm 
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:42 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
long time guy wrote:
I don't know a single person that predicted him to get three minutes a game. The Memphis Grizzlies entire lineup minus Conley were drafted after 11. Paul and Griffin were high picks every other player drafted after 11. Rockets Harden and Howard every other starter drafted after 11. Thunder have Durant and Westbrook other players all drafted after 11.

He is playing 11.6 minutes per game.
I responded to his comment that there was some people that predicted him to play three minutes a game. I never stated that he is playing 3 minutes a game. Your comment is out of context

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:43 pm 
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He is playing 11.6 minutes per game too many.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:44 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
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If you read a few posts up you will see what I'm talking about but that may be a little difficult because reading after all is a skill

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:45 pm 
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:46 pm 
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long time guy wrote:
I don't know a single person that predicted him to get three minutes a game. The Memphis Grizzlies entire lineup minus Conley were drafted after 11. Paul and Griffin were high picks every other player drafted after 11. Rockets Harden and Howard every other starter drafted after 11. Thunder have Durant and Westbrook other players all drafted after 11.
It was posted earlier. Hussra put him at 3 minutes a game prior to the season.
long time guy wrote:
From the 08 draft there are Seven guys picked after 11 that are starters in the NBA. I don't know where you get your info. From but you are wrong.
The information is in that link I provided. Please click it.

7 of the first 10 picks are starters.

7 of the picks from 11+ are starters.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:52 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
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It's always interesting how the excommunicated wishes to excommunicate. Weren't you censored only last night. I'm happy to see that your newly acquired reprieve has you strutting like a peacock.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:55 pm 
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:58 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
long time guy wrote:
I don't know a single person that predicted him to get three minutes a game. The Memphis Grizzlies entire lineup minus Conley were drafted after 11. Paul and Griffin were high picks every other player drafted after 11. Rockets Harden and Howard every other starter drafted after 11. Thunder have Durant and Westbrook other players all drafted after 11.
It was posted earlier. Hussra put him at 3 minutes a game prior to the season.
long time guy wrote:
From the 08 draft there are Seven guys picked after 11 that are starters in the NBA. I don't know where you get your info. From but you are wrong.
The information is in that link I provided. Please click it.

7 of the first 10 picks are starters.

7 of the picks from 11+ are starters.

What is your point? You started by saying that it's unrealistic to expect a starter after 11. It's obvious that you can find starters after 11. You have been saying that the Bulls should be happy with a contributing player. Those are low expectations for a guy you traded two top 20 picks in order to acquire. The 07 draft was not considered to be very good and there were starters drafted after 11.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:01 pm 
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immessedup17 wrote:
long time guy wrote:
I don't know a single person that predicted him to get three minutes a game. The Memphis Grizzlies entire lineup minus Conley were drafted after 11. Paul and Griffin were high picks every other player drafted after 11. Rockets Harden and Howard every other starter drafted after 11. Thunder have Durant and Westbrook other players all drafted after 11.

He is playing 11.6 minutes per game.
you really embarrassed yourself here and even more idiotic was the fact that you doubled and tripled down with the gifs. Hardee ha ha ha

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:03 pm 
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:06 pm 
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There hasn't been a point that I have made about McDermott that you can disprove. In attempting to be witty you have revealed yourself to be a fool.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:07 pm 
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long time guy wrote:
What is your point? You started by saying that it's unrealistic to expect a starter after 11. It's obvious that you can find starters after 11. You have been saying that the Bulls should be happy with a contributing player. Those are low expectations for a guy you traded two top 20 picks in order to acquire. The 07 draft was not considered to be very good and there were starters drafted after 11.
You can find all stars after 11 too. It doesn't mean you should expect it.

I'm not saying McDermott is a great pick if he is just a contributor. It's just what you should expect. It's where the bar is set. So many picks of 10+ end up being busts that you can't call it a bad pick if you happen to get a guy who contributes to your team. That is why it is unrealistic to expect a starter at 11. You certainly hope you get one but the history of picks at that point in the draft indicates you are beating the odds if you get one, and even if you do, it's most likely just a guy who still has some flaws in his game.

You said you should "expect a starter with the 11th pick". This is false. Most picks 11+ do not end up being starters. Some do, and I'm sure you'll cite the Dallas Mavericks or something with a meaningless count of where they were drafted but it still doesn't change the fact that the odds of finding a starter at pick 11 or later is not that high. Even with the years you chose, we ended up with about 7 starters coming out of 20+ picks(depending on if you were counting second round picks).

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