It is time for some analysis. Discuss.

Analyst: Bears' Forte stacks up evenly with Vikings' Peterson
Analyst K.C. Joyner caught the attention of Chicago Bears fans in 2009 after he examined Jay Cutler's knack for risk-taking and compared him to Rex Grossman.

Cutler went on to throw 26 interceptions that season, the second-most in franchise history.

Joyner, who has a website called The Football Scientist, has compiled an analysis of running backs that Bears fans won’t have any problems with: Joyner's research showed that Matt Forte was as productive and valuable last season as the Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson, considered by many to be the NFL's best running back.

“His jack-of-all-trades skill set has led to the idea that he isn't an elite running back (he has no Pro Bowl or All-Pro nominations in his career), but a closer look at the numbers shows that he can actually go toe-to-toe with Adrian Peterson for the title of best running back in the NFC North,” Joyner wrote for ESPN.com.

An accomplished receiver, Forte has piled up lots of yards from scrimmage during his first three seasons. His 4,731 scrimmage yards is fifth in the league over that period behind Chris Johnson, Peterson (5,343), Maurice Jones-Drew and Steven Jackson.

Joyner uses a yards per attempt measuring stick, and he includes rushes and receptions as touches. Peterson is at 4.8 YPT while Forte is just behind him at 4.6. Consider notorious fumbling issues Peterson has had -- he has lost 11 in the last three seasons vs. six by Forte -- and the equation begins to balance out. Per Joyner, most people value a turnover between 40 and 50 yards.

Forte’s yards per target last season was 5.3 ahead of the 4.9 Peterson had. Per Joyner, Forte is also a more accomplished pass blocker than Peterson, something that must be considered.

What does it all mean? Well, Forte should be well-armed for contract discussions with the Bears when the new league year begins. The Bears have an immense amount of work to do to prepare for the season, but eventually they need to determine what they will do with Forte, who is entering the final year of his rookie contract.

Few would select Forte over Peterson if given the choice, but Forte doesn’t have any apparent weaknesses and has been a workhorse for the Bears, not missing a game in his first three seasons.

Joyner makes a compelling case for Forte being considered among the elite backs in the NFL. The Bears discussed a potential contract extension for Forte before the lockout began. The issue will be raised again soon. What do you bet Forte’s side presents this information to the Bears?

Brought to you by Bradd Biggs

Stats wise maybe, but I am sure peterson has broke many more big runs.

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I think Forte puts the ball on the ground a bit less too, yeah?

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Last year Peterson held the ball a little better, but the full body of work suggests Forte doesn't give up the rock nearly as much.

I find this a crazy comparison. If Forte isn't catching the ball as Cutler is getting crushed there is zero comparison in "yards from line of scrimmage". If the roles were reversed, Forte would suck. Minn has options downfield. CHI, not so much. Peterson in CHI would be better running numbers AND better yards after catch.

I think Forte will have a breakout year. His second half stats were fantastic.

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Could be, but is he as good or can he be as good as Peterson?

That's more an indictment of Peterson, who frankly hasn't been as good as advertised for quite a while, than it is praise of Forte.

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IIRC, Adrian only had 1 fumble last year (against the Bears too, right?).

Yeah, 1 fumble, one lost in 15 games. His average going into last year was like 4.3

_________________
"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014