Apropos of nothing I prefer Kenny Lofton
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| Rickey Henderson http://chicagofanatics.com/viewtopic.php?f=74&t=76521 |
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| Author: | RFDC [ Tue Jan 22, 2013 5:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
I agree with you JORR, we only know what they did. Henderson stole almost 2 times as many bases as Wilson and Raines. That is enough for me. We will have to agree to disagree. IMO, Henderson is the best base stealer of all time. |
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| Author: | Dallas Winston [ Tue Jan 22, 2013 5:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
If I had a gun to my head I'd say he probably juiced in the mid to late 80's when Mac and Canseco showed up. His first few seasons he was just an extremely talented freak of nature. Whether he juiced or not he is the greatest lead off hitter I ever saw, and when it comes to base stealing it's Rickey then everybody else. |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Jan 22, 2013 6:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
RFDC wrote: IMO, Henderson is the best base stealer of all time. One thing we know for sure, Rickey agrees with you. |
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| Author: | pittmike [ Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Apropos of nothing I prefer Kenny Lofton
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
pittmike wrote: Apropos of nothing I prefer Kenny Lofton I loved Kenny Lofton. Of course, he was no Henderson, but a damn good leadoff man nonetheless. Another top leadoff guy who is largely forgotten is Brett Butler. |
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| Author: | Peoria Matt [ Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Herb Washington |
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| Author: | pittmike [ Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: pittmike wrote: Apropos of nothing I prefer Kenny Lofton I loved Kenny Lofton. Of course, he was no Henderson, but a damn good leadoff man nonetheless. Another top leadoff guy who is largely forgotten is Brett Butler. Seemed like every Sox-Indians tilt I ever saw had it that if Lofton got on first he'd be on third. 
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Peoria Matt wrote: Herb Washington That fast fucker was a horrible base stealer. He got caught about as much as he stole. An interesting career line, like 30 runs scored and no hits. |
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| Author: | Peoria Matt [ Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
pittmike wrote: Apropos of nothing I prefer Kenny Lofton Never understood why the Cubs got rid of him. Heard Sammy and him didn't get along. |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Davey Lopes was a hell of a base stealer. |
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| Author: | bigfan [ Tue Jan 22, 2013 9:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Peoria Matt wrote: pittmike wrote: Apropos of nothing I prefer Kenny Lofton Never understood why the Cubs got rid of him. Heard Sammy and him didn't get along. Kenny got in Sammys face one day in the locker room...and HE GONE. |
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| Author: | Regular Reader [ Tue Jan 22, 2013 10:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Another top leadoff guy who is largely forgotten is Brett Butler. He and a guy like Molitor would be who I'd want my sons to learn baserunning, bunting and situational hitting from. Wildly under-appreciated imo. |
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| Author: | Furious Styles [ Wed Jan 23, 2013 10:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: RFDC wrote: IMO, Henderson is the best base stealer of all time. One thing we know for sure, Rickey agrees with you. I was going to say Rickey would also agree that, of the two he played with, John Olerud was the best left-handed first baseman who wore a batting helmet in the field. But since I'm my own fact-checkin' cuz, I was sad to find out that story never happened. Bummer. For you hardcore baseball fans, here's a video from Rush about their hobbies on the road. Geddy talks Cubs and baseball collectibles for a few minutes and shows off his collection. Pretty cool. Starts at about the 2:45 mark. Skip the rest unless you have an interest in Alex talking golf or Neil talking motorcycles. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7tsXHkL ... r_embedded |
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| Author: | Don Tiny [ Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:07 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Douchebag wrote: Raines was never the same once he stopped using cocaine. Sounds like a Steve Goodman song. |
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| Author: | rogers park bryan [ Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: pittmike wrote: Apropos of nothing I prefer Kenny Lofton I loved Kenny Lofton. Of course, he was no Henderson, but a damn good leadoff man nonetheless. Another top leadoff guy who is largely forgotten is Brett Butler. Kenny was a top 5 player for a period of years in the nineties Griffey without the power |
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| Author: | Jaw Breaker [ Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
I agree with JORR that it's not clear-cut. The simplest way to explain it is to look at the expected run values for various scenarios. With a man on 1st and no outs, you expect to score 0.864 runs in the inning. If you steal second successfully, your team now expects to score 1.173 runs. However, if you get caught, the expectation drops to only 0.27 runs. So if you multiply Henderson's 81% success rate by the various run differentials (the risk/reward is different for stealing 3rd, etc.) it is possible that he created less runs via the stolen base than someone else who stole far fewer bases but at an 88% clip. It's not intuitive because the breakeven point is around 75%. |
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| Author: | Douchebag [ Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Jaw Breaker wrote: I agree with JORR that it's not clear-cut. The simplest way to explain it is to look at the expected run values for various scenarios. With a man on 1st and no outs, you expect to score 0.864 runs in the inning. If you steal second successfully, your team now expects to score 1.173 runs. However, if you get caught, the expectation drops to only 0.27 runs. So if you multiply Henderson's 81% success rate by the various run differentials (the risk/reward is different for stealing 3rd, etc.) it is possible that he created less runs via the stolen base than someone else who stole far fewer bases but at an 88% clip. It's not intuitive because the breakeven point is around 75%. He scored the most runs in MLB history. I think he did an okay job. |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Jaw Breaker wrote: I agree with JORR that it's not clear-cut. The simplest way to explain it is to look at the expected run values for various scenarios. With a man on 1st and no outs, you expect to score 0.864 runs in the inning. If you steal second successfully, your team now expects to score 1.173 runs. However, if you get caught, the expectation drops to only 0.27 runs. So if you multiply Henderson's 81% success rate by the various run differentials (the risk/reward is different for stealing 3rd, etc.) it is possible that he created less runs via the stolen base than someone else who stole far fewer bases but at an 88% clip. It's not intuitive because the breakeven point is around 75%. Please do this analysis for each of the years he played and get back to us with the runs created or lost. |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Hatchetman wrote: Jaw Breaker wrote: I agree with JORR that it's not clear-cut. The simplest way to explain it is to look at the expected run values for various scenarios. With a man on 1st and no outs, you expect to score 0.864 runs in the inning. If you steal second successfully, your team now expects to score 1.173 runs. However, if you get caught, the expectation drops to only 0.27 runs. So if you multiply Henderson's 81% success rate by the various run differentials (the risk/reward is different for stealing 3rd, etc.) it is possible that he created less runs via the stolen base than someone else who stole far fewer bases but at an 88% clip. It's not intuitive because the breakeven point is around 75%. Please do this analysis for each of the years he played and get back to us with the runs created or lost. Whatever it is, it's not going to be as high as Raines. That's obvious without even doing any math. But I don't really think you can look at baseball that way. Each and every situation is different and all runs aren't equal. SABRmetrics generally treats them as if they are out of necessity with the assumption being that it all evens out over time. Sometimes it doesn't though. You can have hard luck "losing Pitcher" John Danks and I'll take the luckiest man since Lou Gehrig, Aaron Sele. |
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| Author: | Hatchetman [ Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
I had written a longer response, but of course, the board crashed. The play-by-play data is there if you want to figure out the value on an at bat basis. I doubt you care. Neither do I. Most people don't know what the statistics are actually saying and draw off-base conclusions. Bernstein for example, uses similarity scores, not realizing that those are not adjusted by the era of play. I recall someone here coming to the conclusion that Gary Gaetti was the equal of Ron Santo based on similarity scores. |
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| Author: | Seacrest [ Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
If you look up the word "cool" in the dictionary, there should be now words there. Just a picture of Rickey Henderson. |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Seacrest wrote: If you look up the word "cool" in the dictionary, there should be now words there. Just a picture of Rickey Henderson. That's Dick Allen. |
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| Author: | pittmike [ Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Seacrest wrote: If you look up the word "cool" in the dictionary, there should be now words there. Just a picture of Rickey Henderson. That's Dick Allen. +1 |
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| Author: | Joe Orr Road Rod [ Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:23 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Baseball in the 70s was very strange and very cool: http://www.bighairplasticgrass.com/ |
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| Author: | Peoria Matt [ Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
"When I gave up a grand slam to Pete LaCock,” Gibby would later say, “I knew it was time to quit." Truer words were never spoken. That's a cool website. |
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| Author: | Seacrest [ Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote: Seacrest wrote: If you look up the word "cool" in the dictionary, there should be now words there. Just a picture of Rickey Henderson. That's Dick Allen. Dick Allen was cool. Ricky Henderson was, and is, the essence of it. |
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| Author: | scorehead # 84 [ Sun Mar 24, 2013 5:02 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Rickey Henderson |
bigfan wrote: "How you doin" Mr Fan, the correct Ernie-ism is,"Rickey Henderson, how you feelin'?" you're welcome |
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