And now another episode of Bad Baseball thoughts with JORR!

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

This is when I can't figure out if JORR actually believes what he says, or if he just likes to troll.

It's difficult to argue that he isn't the most efficient when the numbers say he is.

There are many factors when it comes to base stealing. Henderson happened to play at a time when the running game exploded. He was the most prolific base stealer ever. That much is certain.

I'm sure Nate Silver, or someone like him, can- and probably has- established the value of a stolen base in a given season (based upon runs scored) and weighed against the consequence of being caught. Whatever that number is, Henderson's 81% exceeds that threshold regardless of era or average run environment.

But I'm old school enough to understand that the "when" of things is critical in baseball. I'm sure there were times when Henderson got caught attempting to take third in a one-run game. Did that event cost his team the game? Who knows? Was it ill-advised? Most likely. Baseball is a complicated game of many parts. That's the beauty of it.

I'm also old school enough to recognize that the threat of the steal can be more valuable than the stolen base itself for the consternation it causes the pitcher. That is something that is not so easily measured, and thus, is often dismissed out of hand by SABRmetricians.

In a different time and place could Jackie Robinson or Looie Aparicio have stolen 1500 bases? I think so. It just wasn't done that way when they played. The steal was a strategy not just a wanton act of accumulation. And I'm not knocking Henderson. He was just a product of his time like everyone else. But I would be very careful about authoritatively declaring him the "best base stealer ever".

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

How can you make 81% better than 88%? Is that something that happens on an Apple computer?

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

tony campana clearly is the greatest. 91.5% - rewriting the record books

The problem with statistics is, they don't lie. Stolen bases just aren't as valuable as most people think they are.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Let me know when he has over 200 in his career. If he can do that at 90%, there's a good argument to be made.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

No one is discussing the value of the SB, except you. You're talking to yourself.

Nobody said they were valuable. they said he was the best at stealing bases. He could have easily stolen at 90% if he only tried 50 times/year.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

How can you judge who was the best at something over various eras without establishing the value of that thing relative to said eras?

If I'm talking to myself it's because I'm the only one who knows what the fuck he's talking about. Stealing at an 88% clip has far more value than stealing at an 80%. That is undeniable. If you don't believe that is a consideration when establishing "the best", that's fine. You can be wrong about that too.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

What is that based on other than your own whim?

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Common sense. Some bases are easier to steal. Slow pitchers, bad catchers, unlikely situations, second rather than third. Every extra stolen base you try is going to be harder.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

I think Henderson's percentage stealing third was higher than his percentage stealing second. I'm not 100% positive about that.

If you want to examine situations, that's fine. Beltran is playing in an era when very few guys take what we would have called a wind-up in Henderson's time, let alone Jackie Robinson's. Do you think that makes it easier or more difficult to steal?

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

By JORR's logic Jim Thome is a better HR hitter than Hank Aaron.

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

Yeah, it was mandatory back then that catchers could throw well. Now that have to hit well.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

Avg success rate of base stealers 1973=63% and 2003=70%

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

He scored the most runs in MLB History. Could the stolen bases possibly have had something to do with that?? Its usually easier to score from 2nd or 3rd than 1st.

_________________
That's my purse! I don't know you!

Do you find that idea to be preposterous? I don't believe it's as crazy as you seem to be suggesting.

Anyway, back to Henderson, I have no problem with those who say that he is the best base stealer of all time. I don't agree, but I can understand the argument. He is far and away the most prolific base stealer ever. Obviously that counts for something. What I take issue with is those who act as if the idea that Willie Wilson and Tim Raines who stole more than their fair share of bases at an extremely high rate of success might have been better at it than Henderson is an absurd concept from out of left field. That isn't that case by a longshot.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Are you sure you're a White Sox fan?

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

Raines is vastly underrated and should be a HOFer. Wilson was fun to watch and a great fielder but couldn't draw a walk if given a sharp pencil and a clean pad of paper.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

Exactly, statistics do not lie. 1400 is far and away the best.

The small difference in success rate just does not make up the huge difference in actual number of SBs. If Raines or Wilson were even somewhat close to Henderson in total numbers then I could see your case. But they aren't. Anyone successful in over 80% of steal attempts is pretty successful. The more SB attempts you have the more impressive over 80% success rate is. There is no way of knowing if Raines or Wilson had that many more attempts would they still be at 85 and 83%?

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

Although I was never a fan of Henderson per se I also really appreciated his ability to hi lead off homers.

_________________

Quite ironic coming from the guy who retardedly interjected "KILL DEB" over and over and repeatedly expressed a creepy obsession with the spicy senorita in the Dexter thread.

_________________
Sex isn't dirty, sex isn't a crime. It's a loving act between two or more consenting adults.

-Hank Kingsley

I believe Ricky was a legit football prospect coming out of high school so he had to be pretty powerful even as a yout.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

willie wilson on average stole 2 more bases per hundred than henderson. raines stole 4 more per hundred. henderson stole 750 more bases than wilson and 600 more than raines over their careers. to say that the slight percentage advantage they have on henderson more than offsets the HUNDREDS and HUNDREDS of additional stolen bases henderson had over his career is preposterous.

Correction; Raines was great, Henderson was legendary.

_________________

Raines was never the same once he stopped using cocaine.

_________________

As a youth I remember reading an article that said Ryne Sandberg was a better base stealer than Vince Coleman. Largely because of percentage and knowing when to run.

We only know what they did. Not what they might have done. Yeah, Henderson is the most prolific base stealer ever. That's a fact. It is not arguable. Just like 85% is better than 81%. That also is not arguable. But the difference in percentage is more significant than you're suggesting. And it isn't as if Raines and Wilson didn't steal plenty of bases. They stole about 800 and 700 respectively. They were prolific in their own right. A knock on Henderson throughout his career was that he ran on many occasions when it was not appropriate to do so. The ultimate result is incidental. Without running in non-running situations he certainly would not have amassed so many steals.

This feels similar to my argument with Favre Fan when I was attempting to put Dennis Rodman in his proper historic place. I always thought Henderson was a great player. I am not now suggesting he was anything less. But there are guys who were better base stealers.

_________________
His mind is not for rent to any God or government.

I agree with you JORR, we only know what they did. Henderson stole almost 2 times as many bases as Wilson and Raines. That is enough for me. We will have to agree to disagree. IMO, Henderson is the best base stealer of all time.

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."