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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:38 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Do you believe $5 million dollars each year is the difference between a money issue and no money issues for the team?
I think it seemed more about the risk of the contract going badly with no relief until nearly 2030 and how that would effect not only the team but also a potential sale of the team.


I don't even want to consider the last part of your statement. It would make me even angrier.

One of the great parts of a rebuild is cheap talent controlled for half a decade. Risk was minimal. The ability to mitigate against the risk and still field a competitive team is high.
The risk was not minimal. The Angels and Mariners are screwed based on one bad contract each.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:42 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
They didn't see the AAV as prohibitively risky for 8 years.


Assuming it was a good faith offer (which you have questioned).

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:45 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Do you believe $5 million dollars each year is the difference between a money issue and no money issues for the team?
I think it seemed more about the risk of the contract going badly with no relief until nearly 2030 and how that would effect not only the team but also a potential sale of the team.


I don't even want to consider the last part of your statement. It would make me even angrier.

One of the great parts of a rebuild is cheap talent controlled for half a decade. Risk was minimal. The ability to mitigate against the risk and still field a competitive team is high.
The risk was not minimal. The Angels and Mariners are screwed based on one bad contract each.


Do I even have to state how the risk on those contracts is easily differentiated from the present situation?

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:46 pm 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
They didn't see the AAV as prohibitively risky for 8 years.


Assuming it was a good faith offer (which you have questioned).


Yep. The shit is multilayered in this compost pile of a result.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:47 pm 
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The White Sox should be commended for trying.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:49 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
The White Sox should be commended for trying.


They should get into the Harper bidding just so the Phillies have to pay more (but then with their luck they'd be Alex Rios'd into some montrosity).

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:51 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
The White Sox should be commended for trying.

Nope.
They should be ripped for failing.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:51 pm 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
The White Sox should be commended for trying.


They should get into the Harper bidding just so the Phillies have to pay more (but then with their luck they'd be Alex Rios'd into some montrosity).

I wonder if Bryce is Leery (Holmes) about going to TROUT-TOWN?


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:52 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
The White Sox should be commended for trying.


As ridiculous as that sounds, that is what some are arguing.

My bretheran pounded the Cub fans for years about demanding nothing besides cold beer from their ownership. I'm embarrassed by what I see today.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:52 pm 
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wdelaney72 wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
The White Sox should be commended for trying.

Nope.
They should be ripped for failing.

They believed they had the best offer on the table.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:54 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
wdelaney72 wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
The White Sox should be commended for trying.

Nope.
They should be ripped for failing.

They believed they had the best offer on the table.


That is another permutation in management's apology that is angering me. If you believed it then you had bad intel, which points the finger at management's abilities again.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:55 pm 
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CHEAP-ASS PHILLIES GM wrote:
"If the reports are true, then this contract will exceed our valuation, and sometimes you have to be willing to walk away. We made our bid, put our best foot forward and he ended up signing with the Padres."

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:58 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
The White Sox should be commended for trying.


As ridiculous as that sounds, that is what some are arguing.
All I said was that the Sox offer was not cheap, not low ball. They got outbid. It happens.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:59 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
CHEAP-ASS PHILLIES GM wrote:
"If the reports are true, then this contract will exceed our valuation, and sometimes you have to be willing to walk away. We made our bid, put our best foot forward and he ended up signing with the Padres."

You continue to try to have it both ways.

Either the Sox front office failed or they didn't and they shrewdly walked away from a bad contract. Pick a lane.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:00 pm 
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I've already answered you, correctly I might add, on this once today.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:00 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
The White Sox should be commended for trying.


As ridiculous as that sounds, that is what some are arguing.
All I said was that the Sox offer was not cheap, not low ball. They got outbid. It happens.


It was not cheap but it was lowball.

They didn't so much get outbid as they removed themselves from the bidding. It wasn't like it was a sealed bid auction where they were stuck to make one offer. They were given the chance to match.

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Last edited by good dolphin on Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:01 pm 
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So are the Yankees low ballers as well?

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:04 pm 
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Probably could have signed him if they didn't have bad Peavy money still on the books :twisted:

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:05 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
So are the Yankees low ballers as well?


of course

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:06 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
I've already answered you, correctly I might add, on this once today.

You did not. You continue to play both sides for some reason. You can't say the Sox did everything they could while also saying the Sox offseason was a complete and utter failure. Those two positions are mutually exclusive.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:09 pm 
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The Sox fans are bring the fire and passion. This is getting me ready for baseball season. Good job.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:49 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
Jaw Breaker wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
They didn't see the AAV as prohibitively risky for 8 years.


Assuming it was a good faith offer (which you have questioned).


Yep. The shit is multilayered in this compost pile of a result.

I, too, am not convinced they really wanted Manny, but rather wanted the appearance of it - I'm not saying this in a pejorative way, just as an observation and consideration.

I imagine they had a short list of other folks they are actually targeting - obviously considerably less expensive players (I worked with a wholesaler named Les Expensive), and maybe the Sox intelligentsia thought it would look better to frame these other folks' signings around 'well, we tried to land the big fish but, since we couldn't, look at these medium and small fish we got in lieu' than 'we didn't bother because we weren't ready'. I don't know.

Regardless, they're all unmitigated dopes either because they couldn't play their own game correctly or they're just plain old country-dumb. I guess Hahn/Williams can always comfort themselves with the fact that they're not GarPax.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:21 pm 
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Don Tiny wrote:
I guess Hahn/Williams can always comfort themselves with the fact that they're not GarPax.

A case could easily be made they are, inexplicably, worse.

It all comes back to Jerry. He's a much bigger problem than Kenny/Hahn or GarPax.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:51 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Don Tiny wrote:
I guess Hahn/Williams can always comfort themselves with the fact that they're not GarPax.

A case could easily be made they are, inexplicably, worse.
Absolutely not. Kenny Williams has a ring with a team that went wire to wire in 1st place and dominated the playoffs. GarPax have nothing even close to that.

FavreFan wrote:
It all comes back to Jerry. He's a much bigger problem than Kenny/Hahn or GarPax.
Agreed.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:24 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
The White Sox should be commended for trying.



Absolutely true. They all should get PARTICIPATION TROPHIES like the Little Leaguers that they are.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:39 pm 
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From November of 2018 - Jon Heyman:

2) Manny Machado, SS-3B: Our poll done a few months ago of top executives had Machado the winner. Word is, the Phillies are still hanging in there for Machado, and maybe Harper, too. But at least one team I know of has declared themselves out. 10 years, 32.5M per, $325M. The Phillies are the logical call, but he’s believed to love the idea of the Yankees. Me: 10 years, $30M, $300M.

Somehow, a baseball writer last year had an idea of what it would take to sign him but the Sox are shocked they didn't get him.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:51 pm 
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Asking a prospective free agent to risk $50 million below the highest offer, for a chance to earn an extra $20 million on a proposition with a probability of, at the very best, 50/50, and an expected value of -$15 million, is absurdly cheap. Absolutely no way around that.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:52 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Don Tiny wrote:
I guess Hahn/Williams can always comfort themselves with the fact that they're not GarPax.

A case could easily be made they are, inexplicably, worse.
Absolutely not. Kenny Williams has a ring with a team that went wire to wire in 1st place and dominated the playoffs. GarPax have nothing even close to that.

FavreFan wrote:
It all comes back to Jerry. He's a much bigger problem than Kenny/Hahn or GarPax.
Agreed.

Gar's made the playoffs. Hahn has nothing even close to that. Sox have been one of the worst teams in the league over the last 9 years.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:55 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Asking a prospective free agent to risk $50 million below the highest offer, for a chance to earn an extra $20 million on a proposition with a probability of, at the very best, 50/50, and an expected value of -$15 million, is absurdly cheap. Absolutely no way around that.


Expected value of minus $15M needs to be kept in context of the size of the deal or about 5% of the $300M or slightly higher percent if you use $250M as the denominator. So absurdly cheap is the wrong relative term.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:03 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Don Tiny wrote:
I guess Hahn/Williams can always comfort themselves with the fact that they're not GarPax.

A case could easily be made they are, inexplicably, worse.
Absolutely not. Kenny Williams has a ring with a team that went wire to wire in 1st place and dominated the playoffs. GarPax have nothing even close to that.

FavreFan wrote:
It all comes back to Jerry. He's a much bigger problem than Kenny/Hahn or GarPax.
Agreed.

Gar's made the playoffs. Hahn has nothing even close to that. Sox have been one of the worst teams in the league over the last 9 years.
:lol: Making the playoffs in the NBA is not a hard thing to do.

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