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Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-framing?
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Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

A 3-2 count is not "even" but neither is the batter "ahead". It's simply a full count.

Author:  Darkside [ Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Can the ump really see the catchers glove? Seems like most of them are just peeking over a shoulder.

Author:  Juice's Lecture Notes [ Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
A 3-2 count is not "even" but neither is the batter "ahead". It's simply a full count.


The edge is given to batters because they can continue the plate appearance by fouling off a pitch, or "win" it by not swinging at a bad pitch. Whereas a pitcher has no such options, and is more limited to the strike zone than on a wide open count. That is the explanation of why a batter is still "ahead" in a "full count".

Author:  lipidquadcab [ Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

denisdman wrote:
I have fought against the saying, "a walk's as good as a hit". I have never seen a walk drive a player home from 2nd base.

Image

Author:  Matches Malone [ Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

lipidquadcab wrote:
denisdman wrote:
I have fought against the saying, "a walk's as good as a hit". I have never seen a walk drive a player home from 2nd base.

Image

Votto will fight you.

Author:  lipidquadcab [ Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Matches Malone wrote:
lipidquadcab wrote:
denisdman wrote:
I have fought against the saying, "a walk's as good as a hit". I have never seen a walk drive a player home from 2nd base.

Image

Votto will fight you.

If his fighting style is anything like his plate approach, he'll just watch you throw a bunch of punches and hope you tire yourself out.

Author:  Juice's Lecture Notes [ Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

lipidquadcab wrote:
Matches Malone wrote:
lipidquadcab wrote:
denisdman wrote:
I have fought against the saying, "a walk's as good as a hit". I have never seen a walk drive a player home from 2nd base.

Image

Votto will fight you.

If his fighting style is anything like his plate approach, he'll just watch you throw a bunch of punches and hope you tire yourself out.


He has the 25th-best ISO (.227) in the league among qualified hitters from 2009 until now. He's not just some punchless weirdo who doesn't swing, he's got elite power.

Author:  Matches Malone [ Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

lipidquadcab wrote:
If his fighting style is anything like his plate approach, he'll just watch you throw a bunch of punches and hope you tire yourself out.

Image

Author:  lipidquadcab [ Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Matches Malone wrote:
lipidquadcab wrote:
If his fighting style is anything like his plate approach, he'll just watch you throw a bunch of punches and hope you tire yourself out.

Image

:lol:

What a dick.

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
A 3-2 count is not "even" but neither is the batter "ahead". It's simply a full count.


The edge is given to batters because they can continue the plate appearance by fouling off a pitch, or "win" it by not swinging at a bad pitch. Whereas a pitcher has no such options, and is more limited to the strike zone than on a wide open count. That is the explanation of why a batter is still "ahead" in a "full count".


That's certainly a way to spin it. One also might say the pitcher has the advantage on any 2 strike count, particularly in this era when outside of a few batters there really is no "two strike approach" to hitting. You seem to be saying that batters can just foul off pitches at will like Luke Appling as if they suddenly discover the ability to make contact on full counts that isn't apparent when they are striking out 40,000 times.

It also depends on the situation. There's obviously a difference when men are on base. But the fact is there are less balls put into play than ever.

Author:  good dolphin [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Darkside wrote:
Can the ump really see the catchers glove? Seems like most of them are just peeking over a shoulder.


I do believe there is more credit attributed to the catcher in the framing discussion than what is actually occurring, which leads me to believe it is another "scientific" metric that uses subjective factors to arrive at its product.

Author:  Juice's Lecture Notes [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
A 3-2 count is not "even" but neither is the batter "ahead". It's simply a full count.


The edge is given to batters because they can continue the plate appearance by fouling off a pitch, or "win" it by not swinging at a bad pitch. Whereas a pitcher has no such options, and is more limited to the strike zone than on a wide open count. That is the explanation of why a batter is still "ahead" in a "full count".


That's certainly a way to spin it. One also might say the pitcher has the advantage on any 2 strike count, particularly in this era when outside of a few batters there really is no "two strike approach" to hitting. You seem to be saying that batters can just foul off pitches at will


No, I'm not. Don't twist this into some bullshit strawman of yours. I'm saying hitters have the advantage because they can continue the PA by virtue of fouling off a pitch, increasing their chances to get a hit (research shows this), while the pitcher has absolutely nothing he can do to extend the PA.

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
A 3-2 count is not "even" but neither is the batter "ahead". It's simply a full count.


The edge is given to batters because they can continue the plate appearance by fouling off a pitch, or "win" it by not swinging at a bad pitch. Whereas a pitcher has no such options, and is more limited to the strike zone than on a wide open count. That is the explanation of why a batter is still "ahead" in a "full count".


That's certainly a way to spin it. One also might say the pitcher has the advantage on any 2 strike count, particularly in this era when outside of a few batters there really is no "two strike approach" to hitting. You seem to be saying that batters can just foul off pitches at will


No, I'm not. Don't twist this into some bullshit strawman of yours. I'm saying hitters have the advantage because they can continue the PA by virtue of fouling off a pitch, increasing their chances to get a hit (research shows this), while the pitcher has absolutely nothing he can do to extend the PA.


What the fuck are you talking about? A foul ball extends the plate appearance for both the pitcher and the batter. True, the more pitches a batter sees in an at-bat, the more likely he is to get a hit, but full counts are ultimately resulting in strikeouts more than at any other time in baseball history. That's a fact.

Author:  KDdidit [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Why would the pitcher want to extend the plate appearance and not just get the out?

Author:  Curious Hair [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
The best pitch to hit is usually the first pitch. When the batter goes to the plate looking to take the first pitch he is killing what is often his best opportunity.

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
True, the more pitches a batter sees in an at-bat, the more likely he is to get a hit


Image

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Curious Hair wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
The best pitch to hit is usually the first pitch. When the batter goes to the plate looking to take the first pitch he is killing what is often his best opportunity.

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
True, the more pitches a batter sees in an at-bat, the more likely he is to get a hit


Image


Those statements aren't contradictory. Going up to hit the shit out of the first good pitch is a much more reasonable plan/goal for an at-bat than thinking you're going to see 12 or 13 pitches without striking out first. The 40,000 strikeouts that will occur this year support that.

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

KDdidit wrote:
Why would the pitcher want to extend the plate appearance and not just get the out?


I believe he's saying the batter is "winning" the battle on a particular 3-2 pitch when he fouls it off. I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that.

Author:  Curious Hair [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

I guess you're right. Maybe it's like holding a note in jazz where you start loud and then go soft and crescendo, but with statistical likelihood.

Digression: does anyone else who's ever taken a single music class in their lives see the phrase "reach a crescendo" and start tearing hair out? The crescendo isn't what you arrive at, it's the arrival itself.

Author:  KDdidit [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
Why would the pitcher want to extend the plate appearance and not just get the out?


I believe he's saying the batter is "winning" the battle on a particular 3-2 pitch when he fouls it off. I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that.

I dunno, I don't get the context of "I'm saying hitters have the advantage because they can continue the PA by virtue of fouling off a pitch, increasing their chances to get a hit (research shows this), while the pitcher has absolutely nothing he can do to extend the PA."

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

KDdidit wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
Why would the pitcher want to extend the plate appearance and not just get the out?


I believe he's saying the batter is "winning" the battle on a particular 3-2 pitch when he fouls it off. I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that.

I dunno, I don't get the context of "I'm saying hitters have the advantage because they can continue the PA by virtue of fouling off a pitch, increasing their chances to get a hit (research shows this), while the pitcher has absolutely nothing he can do to extend the PA."


Yeah, the pitcher doesn't want to extend the at-bat. He wants to end it right there. He usually does too and often with a strikeout.

Author:  Juice's Lecture Notes [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

KDdidit wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
Why would the pitcher want to extend the plate appearance and not just get the out?


I believe he's saying the batter is "winning" the battle on a particular 3-2 pitch when he fouls it off. I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that.

I dunno, I don't get the context of "I'm saying hitters have the advantage because they can continue the PA by virtue of fouling off a pitch, increasing their chances to get a hit (research shows this), while the pitcher has absolutely nothing he can do to extend the PA."


The pitcher can't make up for a bad pitch or bad location, so he is forced more into the zone than on a wide open count or even a count where he is ahead. The hitter, however, can try to force a different pitch or different location, or even make up for guessing wrong on location/pitch type, by fouling off a pitch.

Author:  Joe Orr Road Rod [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
Why would the pitcher want to extend the plate appearance and not just get the out?


I believe he's saying the batter is "winning" the battle on a particular 3-2 pitch when he fouls it off. I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that.

I dunno, I don't get the context of "I'm saying hitters have the advantage because they can continue the PA by virtue of fouling off a pitch, increasing their chances to get a hit (research shows this), while the pitcher has absolutely nothing he can do to extend the PA."


The pitcher can't make up for a bad pitch or bad location, so he is forced more into the zone than on a wide open count or even a count where he is ahead.


That's true, but the hitter is also forced into a situation where he can't take anything that's anywhere close without risk of being rung up. There was a time when batters would choke up and protect the zone, but the strikeout has lost the stigma it once had.

Author:  lipidquadcab [ Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Remember when the statheads were wrong about pitch-frami

Curious Hair wrote:
I guess you're right. Maybe it's like holding a note in jazz where you start loud and then go soft and crescendo, but with statistical likelihood.

Digression: does anyone else who's ever taken a single music class in their lives see the phrase "reach a crescendo" and start tearing hair out? The crescendo isn't what you arrive at, it's the arrival itself.

No, the only thing I remember about my music theory class was the disdain the teacher had for us non-majors taking the class.

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