A week away, still awaiting the post draw. But not too early to start the conversation...my early thoughts

Tier One-Likely Winners
Tapit Trice (Could win the Belmont as well)
Derma Sotogake
Disarm
Angel Of Empire

Tier Two-In the Money
Forte (Think the Florida Derby took its toll…keeping him out of the winners circle is my way of getting paid)
Mage (has battled with Forte)
Practical Move +
Verifying
Skinner (if he gets in love his pedigree…JORR likes as well)


Tier Three-In the Superfecta
Two Phil’s (Don’t know if that Ruby performance translates here)
Rocket Can +
Hit Show

??? (Still looking at…none are winners in my eyes)
Kingsbury (Pratt going elsewhere)
Major Dude
Continuar
Confidence Game -

Toss
Cyclone Mischief
Jace’s Road
Raise Cain
Sun Thunder
Reincarnate
Lordy Miles

My main thought a week out is that this is a weak Derby field and the horses that are going to be the favorites don't have figs any faster than some that are going to be 20/1 or more. I'm not using anything on top that isn't 10/1 or more.

I love the rider change on Skinner.

I think Verifying is sitting on a big race.

I believe Confidence Game will have the lead at the first call and the longer they leave him alone the more his chances to win increase.

I think Two Phil's is very live here. His race at Turfway is the best fig any of these horses has run- by far. Not sure how that translates back on dirt, but he has a win over the track. And I do know a good horse when I see one, even before he has ever set foot in a starting gate:

viewtopic.php?f=129&t=128236&p=3822946&hilit=Two+Phil%27s#p3822946

_________________
Don't take it personally.

PACE (not Ryan)

Apologies for the tab issues with the below info...

this is the list of the last 10 winners and the fractions of the race...there are two sets of times, I'm looking at the first one to get a sense of the early pace of the Deby...and man they have been fast

My thought is that it's not set up like that this year...at least from what I can tell. Certainly when there are 20 horses going as opposed to 11 or 12 things change, but still...

Year Winner Position after first 1/2-mile ½-mile & ¾-mile times
2022 Rich Strike 18th by 17 lengths (20 starters) :45.36, 1:10.34 (fast)
2021 Medina Spirit 1st by 1 length (19 starters) :46.70, 1:11.21 (fast)
2020 Authentic 1st by 1 length (15 starters) :46.41, 1:10.23 (fast)
2019 Country House 8th by 4.75 lengths (19 starters) :46.62, 1:12.50 (sloppy)
2018 Justify 2nd by 0.5 lengths (20 starters) :45.77, 1:11.01 (sloppy)
2017 Always Dreaming 2nd by 1 length (20 starters) :46.53, 1:11.12 (wet fast)
2016 Nyquist 2nd by 4 lengths (20 starters) :45.72, 1:10.40 (fast)
2015 American Pharoah 3rd by 2 lengths (18 starters) :47.34, 1:11.29 (fast)
2014 California Chrome 3rd by 1.5 lengths (19 starters) :47.37, 1:11.80 (fast)
2013 Orb 16th by 18.75 lengths (19 starters) :45.33, 1:09.80 (sloppy)



Regarding almost everyone’s last race at 1 and an eighth…Only the Florida Derby and the Santa Anita Derby had a sub :47 half mile…and Forte, Mage and Cyclone Mischief (Fla) and Skinner and Practical (SA) benefited from the faster earlier pace, all coming off from the back end to finish in the money…but none of them were on the front end and quite honestly, I don’t think any of these horses are truly speed types

As you can see by the chart, only 2 of the last 10 versions had a half mile OVER :47…I really think this year should be on the slow end of that range

I think it is going to be quite crowded trip throughout…there will be a first flight probably including Kingsbarn, Derma Sotogake, Practical Move…Veryifying and Hit Show are going to have to gun it whether they want to or not, unless they want to get swallowed up by the rail.

Any thoughts on pace?

I think this is a slow, subpar group as a whole. But with the apparent lack of speed in the race, there may be more than a few guys who think they can grab an easy lead and all of a sudden there's scramble for the front and they're winging out there. There are a lot of horses that most consider a cut below that could be dangerous if left alone on an easy lead, like Confidence Game and Reincarnate.

_________________
Don't take it personally.

I left out Confidence Game who will be on the front end, but I don't necessarily see him on the lead (as I believe JORR does)...he's never run past 1 1/16th and it would be asking a lot of him to it that fast, that early, and for that far.

...and I know, it's Derby, not Deby

Can Two Phil's make the buck and quarter, JORR?

I always thought he was a miler, but I'm not so sure anymore. His race in the Ruby is as good as anything any horse of this generation has done so far. The competition was suspect but other horses from that race have come back and raced well since. The surface raises questions but he already has a good win over the CD strip. He has enough speed to work out a nice trip. I'm using him.

_________________
Don't take it personally.

Not a good "look" with all eyes looking...

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/c ... ph-horses/

2 more vanned off today

take Reincarnate and Practical Move

Practical Move is a likely third place finisher.

If Reincarnate makes the front and wires this field- the only way he could possibly win- I will give up betting on horses. Fuck Bob Baffert.

_________________
Don't take it personally.

Sloppy Joe forced to scratch. Mandarin Hero in.

_________________
Don't take it personally.

Yeah, four horses dead in five days with two of them having apparent heart attacks or something after the race. Yikes.

_________________

I was going to throw some money at Tapit, Kingsbarns, and Forte because Pletcher was the biggest cheater left with Baffert out but that may not work out very well if they are all big cheats. I have one more day to pick my favorite cheat. I think I will work Mage in as well.

_________________
Mulli is Howard Stern in his prime compared to Haugh.

The guy who trains Mage is definitely a juicer. I'm not sure how sophisticated his program is though. It's one thing to light 'em up at Gulfstream Park and another thing to win the Kentucky Derby.

I wouldn't call Pletcher a square guy exactly, but he is a real horseman and he isn't using the exotic stuff some of these other guys are. You can see that his horses form cycle in the way you would expect. He's consistent. His horses need time between starts. I think Tapit Trice will win the Belmont, but if he wins tomorrow Pletcher will be forced to wheel him back in the Preakness in two weeks and that will put the Belmont in jeopardy. Bringing a horse back in 14 days is not Todd's thing let alone racing three times in five weeks. But with a horse like this you have to try to win the Derby. You can worry about the Belmont later. I'm sure Pletcher would like to skip the Preakness, but if you have a Derby winner as good as Tapit Trice that's untenable for owners with Triple Crown fever.

Anyway, I think there is a chance that Derma Sotogake simply lays over this entire field. We'll find out on Saturday, but this is a pretty common group of horses in my view. Also, speaking of juicers, Hit Show is one I wouldn't be quick to leave off your tickets.

This is a great betting race.

_________________
Don't take it personally.

i feel like derma is going to get bet down, even with all the things going against him history wise...although with the scratches, his post position has probably dramatically improved.

it should be a wide open race, but that can be a total mind fuck in trying to figure out tri's/super's.

and that's then fun part!

Well, making gobs of money is the real fun stuff, but you get it...

Now Skinner scratched.

19 horse field…that’s gonna squeeze odds.

Race 5 up next...some familiar names...Art Collector, Rich Strike (remember him?)...but ain't nobody beating West Will Power...pass on this one

Like I was saying...

Race 6 up next on the Oaks card...some really competitive races later...in this race I like (I'll stick to "I Like" for a while) the 2-Didia, just keeps winning, baby...exacta 2/all

Nice and you got some price with it.

_________________
2018
#ExtendLafleur
10 More Wins

Race 7 Stakes Pick 5

3, 6, 9 / 1, 8, 11 / 4, 8, 10 / 3, 5, 8, 10 / 3, 7, 8 $162.00

Race 7 i really like the price on the 3-Olivia's Twist

Races 9, 10 and 11 were very difficult for me...

Race 10 the 10-Flashy Gem could be Lone Speed on Turf, my favorite angle..we'll see...also like the 30-1 longshot in the 11th the 8-Promiseher America...1/1 at this distance in a G3

Race 8, the only non-Graded stakes in the mid Pick 5, but $300K purse will attract some good horses...this will be a blanket finish including the 1,6,8,9,11 and should be terrific...

now everyone just stay upright...

that goes for you jerks, as well.

Derma Sogonnalose, eh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5AzVmJ6nus

Late Pick 5 Oaks Friday

4, 8, 10 / 3, 5, 8, 10 / 3, 6, 7, 8 / 1, 2 / 12, 14, 15*

Race 13- Lots of “Also Eligibles” gain entry, and the fans are too drunk to notice…I like the 11, 12, and 14 but the 15 could be a steal
“18% Sire wins with 1st time Starters/Dam has 4 winners from 4 starters and 2 stakes winners/29% trainer: Debut MdnSpWt/Sharp 4F workout (0429)

grrrrrrrrrrrr

Race 10 staying within this race, not chasing the P4

Tifecta 3,5,8,10/all/3,5,8,10...all over 5-1 on top and hoping the 10 will be lone speed

That nose Munny's Gold got beat cost me 4 grand.

_________________
Don't take it personally.

+1

_________________
"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

ok i lied I am playing the late Pick 4

alive to

1, 2, 5, 6, 9 / 12, 14, 15