Talk of collusion is nonsense and as already stated...this is just the re-bound of the sterroid era. Teams are wisely banking on younger talent...as they should. Plenty of big contracts getting done still....some teams just cannot help themselves...we'll soon see it with Machado and Harper.
Yu Darvish - 6 yr $126 Million
Eric Hosmer - 8 yrs $144 Million
JD Martinez - 5 yrs $110 Million
Jake Arrieta - 3 yrs $75 Million

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But worse than a contract that would have paid him $94 million over 4 years.

The point on the guaranteed piece of a deal vs. the non guaranteed piece of the deal is who bears the risk. In MLB, all of the risk is on the team once a player signs a deal. The risk of injury, risk or poor performance, any downside risk is borne by the team. In the NFL, to the extent money is agreed to within the contract, but not guaranteed, the player bears all of the downside.

Certainly there are players in MLB and the NFL who have "bet on themselves" and taken less money or a shorter deal to try and secure a better long term deal with guaranteed money, but most players, and most people in the labor market would prefer to shift that risk to someone else, preferably an employer.

The NFL players, performing a job with a high degree of injury risk and high degree of performance decline risk bear the risk of these events occurring on a far disproportionate basis when compared to guys in MLB.

Honestly Rick, you're boarding on arguing for a position of having the player assume MORE risk under the theory that this could potentially increase his earnings. I'll sign a one year deal, have a great year, and then have a bunch more leverage against the team to make MORE money next year. This would be the position of signing a sequence of one year deals, which when you think about it, is just a terrible idea.

I'm comparing a guaranteed NFL contract to a non-guaranteed one.

We can compare Heyward and Stafford. Stafford is a year older, but was drafted two years after Stafford.

In 2022, Stafford will finish out his contract and have made $262 million. The last two years of those aren't guaranteed but he is highly likely to get that. If he doesn't, then he will lose $43 million off that for a total of $219 million.

By 2023, Jason Heyward will have made $184 million.

So, a guy who never got a fully guaranteed contract in his life could make anywhere from $35 million to $100 million more(if he gets another $20 million in the year 2023).

That's the ultimate point I am trying to make. NFL contracts are just structured different. The players are simply dividing things up among a limited salary pool. It doesn't really matter if it is fully guaranteed or not. They would have to adjust contracts accordingly if all money was guaranteed but the money is the same for the average player. If Stafford had a 5 year fully guaranteed contract, and he suffered a career ending injury it would simply be another player or a group of players not getting that $20 million per year he loses out on.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Gentlemen, I just got off the phone with the commissioner, and thanks to your whistle blowing, we will be launching a full investigation immediately. The scope of the investigation will include a review of any and all league rule violations committed by any owner or anyone they have ever associated with in their lifetime. We do not yet have a time frame for completion, but we will keep you updated when we feel like it.

Strong start for MULT of the YEAR

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Baseball will never lock out its players. They know they won't survive that.

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Interesting the Cubs and Red Sox had the exact same revenue right down to the penny.
And since when does MLB open their books. As far as I know, it hasn't happened since the strike.

But are the players dumb enough to strike if they can't reach an agreement?

I'm thinking they are and that won't end well for them.

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The amount of potential salary is fixed. If NFL salaries had been fully guaranteed for the last 30 years then Alex Smith likely gets far less than $94 million guaranteed. We've already seen the Cubs avoid free agency because of bad contracts they can't get off the books.
Not at all. I'm saying Stafford made the perfect decision. Get a 3 year deal with a massive check right at the start and then have two more years where at worst you have to play quarterback for $20 million a year for the Lions or find a new job if you have a massive decline or a serious injury.

Let me try putting it this way. Let's say that instead of Stafford getting that huge deal, he took $8 million less, and was only signed for those 3 years. This would basically be Kirk Cousins contract. He is making less money per year, and he has the same amount of risk associated with it as either way he is out of a job with the Lions after 3 years. Instead, he gets more money, but the downside is that if he is good enough he has to accept that the Lions have the option to pay him $20 million a year to throw a football or cut him and he can do whatever else he wants.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

The players also won't strike for the same reason. But glad to know you've exposed yourself as an owner toady.

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CH how much of the profits should an owner share with their employees ?

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Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

JORR, juice performance into early 30's and beyond obviously has a huge impact, but to take it even further, front offices generally aren't being run by dipshits anymore. Just as a point of reference, after the 1990 season where the Cubs won 77 games or something, they signed a 31 year old George Bell, a 29 year old Danny Jackson, and a 36 (!!) year old Dave Smith to large FA deals (for that time). That's just fucking stupid. The 1991 Cubs won the same amount of games as they did the season before. That wasn't part of the juice era for the most part, but front offices still gave out stupid deals to older players. That type of stuff just won't happen in 2019.

If Jason Heyward were in the NFL he wouldn't come close to realizing that 184mm number because as soon as the non-guaranteed money years kicked in, he'd be long gone.

Also, not for nothing, but you're comparing a position in the NFL, which is by FAR the highest paid, to a position in MLB (RF) which probably isn't one of the top 5 paid positions.

That's for them to decide in collective bargaining.

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I don't think Rick is wrong, the amount of money being paid to QB are nuts. This kid goes #1 in the NFL draft and he's guaranteed 40 million with a 90 percent chance to get a second contract even if he's below average.

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Sure, and part of it is advanced analytics. Teams aren't just guessing about what they will get from guys. Economics is causing teams to play younger guys and they're seeing that they can not just play when they're 20 years old, but many can play and excel. Why sign these veteran warhorses for big bucks when you can get the same and possibly more production from young guys? Like you said above, it's not affecting the superstars, it's affecting the journeymen.

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General Jim wears Fort Bragg down... to get it!

Do you have to necessarily be pro-owner to believe most baseball players are idiots?

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

We saw the same thing in the NHL, where there's both a hard cap and guaranteed contracts. What it especially did was purge journeyman talent from Eastern Europe: there will always be a place here for Alex Ovechkin, but those Sergei Krivokrasov-type guys can be replaced by cheaper North Americans.

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That is why the collective bargaining will address the service time or there will be a strike.

Build a wall!

Yikes

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Maybe. The Cubs are voluntarily locking themselves out of Chicago TV households.

The rank-and-file players may be idiots, but both sides realize that after '94, they'll have to maintain labor peace at all times. The strike was such a black mark on American sports that every labor stoppage since has been casually referred to as a "strike," even though they're actually lockouts on the part of ownership. (This may also be bias towards management and contempt/racism for players.) No one has the stomach for another '94.

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I don't consider myself pro-owner or pro-player (I find it somewhat insulting to call professional athletes "Labor"), but if I have to pick who should get more money, I'm gonna go with the guy who hits the homers over the guy in the skybox.

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General Jim wears Fort Bragg down... to get it!

His value to get him to sign with the Cubs is still the same. What if the Cubs had added in 3 team options at the end for the same price per year? That's basically what NFL teams do here.

We saw it with the Cousins deal. It was all guaranteed but it was far shorter than most big time contracts are in the NFL.


JORR told me to compare him to Heyward so I did.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Do you feel the same way for all businesses, or just sports?

I disagree. There will be a sizable war chest on the players' side.

Pay Matt the Bat!

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

THIS. They've catered to veteran contracts at the expense of the emerging stars.



I hope you are right. I would not say I'm an owner toady at all. The owners ruined the league in '94. I hold them mostly responsible for the steroid era. My point is collusion is the wrong stance for the players association. If they want to fight for something, it needs to be the rules on eligibility and holding the Bryants and Eloys in the minor leagues too long. That's some BS.

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If JORR told you to jump off a bridge would you do it?

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Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul